What Three 'Low Margin' Constituencies Say About Uttar Pradesh Politics

We saw a tough contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and Samajwadi Party in three parliamentary constituencies of Basti Mandal adjacent to Gorakhpur – Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar and Dumariyaganj. BJP, which had won all three seats in the last two elections 2014 and 2019, is in a tough spot in wake of the SP’s new social engineering tactic behind the “pichhda (backward), Dalit, alpsankhyak (minority)” slogan, also known as PDA.

Even though the BJP won all three seats in both the elections, the victory had been an uphill race with a tiny vote margin. A triangular contest divided the votes of the opposition candidates and made it possible for the BJP to win. This time, despite the presence of Bahujan Samaj Party on all three seats, there is a direct fight only between BJP and SP. It is claimed that BSP candidates only want to save their Jatav votes and create division in SP’s core vote-base.

BSP president Mayawati, while addressing a public rally in Basti on May 18, said that the Muslim population in Basti division is very high. Therefore, the party has fielded candidates from the Muslim community in Sant Kabir Nagar and Dumariyaganj.

“Extremely Backward Class voters are dominant in Basti and hence the ticket was given to an Extremely Backward Class candidate from the Kurmi community.”

Mayawati offered this clarification at the beginning of her speech because she had replaced the previously announced candidates in all three constituencies. In Basti, the party had earlier handed the ticket to former BJP district president Dayashankar Mishra but later changed it to Luvkush Patel, son of former MLA Nandu Chaudhary. Similarly, in Dumariyaganj, the ticket given to Khwaja Shamsuddin was later handed to Nadeem Mirza and in Sant Kabir Nagar, instead of Syed Danish, the ticket was given to his elder brother Nadeem Ashraf.

This time too, the BJP fielded its veteran candidates from all three Lok Sabha constituencies. Harish Dwivedi, who has won two consecutive times, was fielded from Basti. Jagdambika Pal who won on a BJP ticket in 2014 and 2019 was fielded from Dumariyaganj. Shri Pal was elected MP from the same area in 2009 on a Congress ticket. He contested the elections for the fourth consecutive time.

Praveen Nishad contested from Sant Kabir Nagar for a second time. He is the son of Nishad Party president Dr. Sanjay Nishad. Praveen came into the limelight in 2018 when he defeated the BJP candidate in the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha by-election. A year later, his father had formed an alliance with the BJP. Praveen was removed from Gorakhpur and sent to contest elections in Sant Kabir Nagar. To make room for Praveen, the ticket given to Sharad Tripathi, who rose in fame due to the “shoe scandal”, was cancelled. Tripathi’s father Dr. Ramapati Ram Tripathi had contested the Deoria elections, which he won. His ticket, too, was cancelled in this election. Tripathi died in July 2021.

Social engineering by SP

SP too changed its candidates in all three constituencies. SP fielded Ram Prasad Choudhary, who contested the 2014 and 2019 elections from BSP, in Basti. In Dumariyaganj, Bhishmashankar Tiwari alias Kushal Tiwari, the elder son of strongman Pandit Harishankar Tiwari, who had fought twice from Sant Kabir Nagar area, was fielded. Laxmikant Nishad alias Pappu Nishad, MLA from Mehdawal and former minister from Sant Kabir Nagar, was also given a ticket.

The SP has selected the candidates under its ‘PDA’ formula. Keeping in mind the majority of Nishad voters in Sant Kabir Nagar district, Kurmi voters in Basti and Brahmin voters in Dumariyaganj, candidates from these communities were fielded in the respective areas. The SP was confident that it had the support of its core vote base – Muslims and Yadavs – and that their leaders will garner enough votes from their respective communities to take the party on a smooth ride to victory. Besides, the party leaders believe that the new vote bank it is drawing on the issues of constitution, unemployment, inflation, reservation, and agriculture will further bolster its chances.

The SP had resorted to this new sort of social engineering in the 2022 elections as well. It benefited from the formula in Basti district and won four out of five seats, but the strategy did not work in Sant Kabir Nagar and Siddharth Nagar districts. Learning from the experience of assembly elections, the SP refined this equation a little more.

These three seats had become a challenge for the BJP in 2014 and 2019 also because they had won by a very small margin compared to Gorakhpur and other areas. In Dumariyaganj, BJP had won by a margin of 1,03,568 in 2014 and 1,05,321 in 2019. The victory margin in Basti was 30,354 and 33,562 respectively. In Sant Kabir Nagar, BJP had won by a margin of 97,978 votes in 2017 but it came down to 35,749 votes in the stormy wave of 2019.

Earlier contests

Interestingly, in 2014 there was a four-cornered contest on these seats, and SP and BSP got almost equal number of votes. Later, when the SP and BSP contested together in the 2019 elections, the contest became three-cornered, but in Basti and Sant Kabirnagar, Congress candidates (Rajkishore Singh and Bhalchandra) received a fair share of votes due to which the SP-BSP combine suffered losses. Communal polarisation in Dumariyaganj has now strengthened the BJP.

This factor is not present in all three seats in this election. BSP is neither able to create a triangular contest nor able to divide the minority votes in Sant Kabir Nagar and Dumariyaganj. Former MLA Amar Singh Choudhary, contesting from Azad Samaj Party in Dumariyaganj, attracted Dalit voters apart from his own community. Azad Samaj Party founder Chandrashekhar spent several days campaigning for him. In Basti, SP candidate Ram Prasad Chaudhary seems to have been successful in bringing BSP cadres to his side.

The SP candidate used his family heritage to woo Brahmin voters in Dumariyaganj.

In Sant Kabir Nagar, the entire fight took place between Nishad voters and they were justifiably confused. Shanichara village situated near Bakhira Lake is a Nishad dominated village. Here, preparations were on for the ‘Naav Puja’ which takes place every three years. More than 20,000 people of Nishad community were going to gather there at night. In the afternoon, tents were set up and food was prepared. A boat was decorated and prepared for the puja.

But Sanjay Nishad’s supporters there were angry with BJP candidate Praveen Nishad over the fact that the path from the main road to the village had not been constructed yet and people still faced difficulties in commuting. Devi Prasad Nishad, a youth of this village, said that if Praveen Nishad ever arrived, he would ask him why he could not get the road built in five years. Some people in the Nishad community gathered there spoke of voting for SP candidate Pappu Nishad.

The SP candidate also had the support of members of the Sainthwar Mall caste who were miffed with the BJP as it had not given tickets to people of their community.

Brahmin votes in Sant Kabir Nagar seat were also being eyed. Brahmin voters were similarly confused because Praveen Nishad was contesting from BJP again while SP also fielded a Nishad candidate. Former MLA Digvijay Narayan alias Jai Choubey, who was contesting from SP, joined the BJP. Dayashankar Mishra joined SP after having been denied a ticket from BSP in Basti. Similarly, in Dumariyaganj, youth leader Ram Kumar alias Chinku Yadav, defected from the SP and joined BJP. Former MLA and former minister Rajkishore Singh has also joined BJP along with his brother, Brajkishore Singh.

Anti-incumbency against the sitting MPs was seen not only in Sant Kabir Nagar but in Basti as well. However, the BJP’s influence appears to be intact in cities and small towns. Two tea vendors from Bakhira town openly expressed support for the BJP. One shopkeeper raised a slogan for the “Yogi government.” Another shopkeeper Raju Gupta said Modi had given ration and housing to the poor. “I have not received any of it myself,” added Gupta, “but I have faith that one day all those who queue up for it will get it.”

Translated from the Hindi original by Naushin Rehman.