What Will Sink Modi, Age or Incompetence?

A bogus debate about the removal of Narendra Modi as prime minister because he is approaching 75 years of age has kept political circles, social media and news portals engaged over the past few weeks.

While this debate rests on the false presumption that Modi’s suitability as prime minister is linked to his age, the hope that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the BJP will apply the 75-year yardstick for retirement to Modi springs from a poor understanding of the Sangh parivar’s ethics.

Though veterans like L.K. Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and Yashwant Sinha were pushed out of the political framework on the pretext of age, the real reason for their marginalisation was incompatibility with the Modi-Amit Shah duopoly.

If at all there is a plan afoot to replace Modi, it is because the RSS-BJP has realised he can’t be the future; it is almost impossible for him to bounce back from the miserable plight he now finds himself in.

The Sangh parivar will obviously be more interested in consolidating power than in sustaining Modi as prime minister. It is not open to dispute that Modi has lost his charisma and control. While the BJP’s failure to secure a majority in the 2024 parliamentary election came as the most tangible evidence of Modi’s falling popularity, his inability to impose upon the party a president of his choice vividly manifests the internal unease in the Sangh parivar over his total control over both the government and the organisation.

It appears the RSS is not willing to allow Modi to foist another J.P. Nadda on the party to ensure Shah’s proxy domination.

There is doubtless a buzz in Sangh parivar circles about the 75-year benchmark that Modi himself enforced after 2014, but this is more an excuse to pressure him than a determination to stick to principle. This discourse is possible today only because Modi has slipped on the journey downhill.

A political myth, no matter how artfully crafted, unravels sooner or later. The Modi myth survived longer than expected  – for 11 years, which is not a small period of time. This exceptional political phenomenon is now a grave of unfulfilled promises, stunning lies and stale ideas.

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Modi has been found out. People can now see through him. The same rhetoric, the same language, the same metaphors, the same tricks recycled so many times lose their lustre. Viewed against the backdrop of utter failure in creating jobs, controlling prices, bringing back black money and providing a safe social environment for women, Modi’s promise of delivering a “viksit Bharat” in 2047 now looks like a hoax.

If the blatant misuse of the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate gave credence to charges of a political witch-hunt, the pathetic state of affairs in the judiciary, the Election Commission and the media compelled ordinary people to see merit in the allegations of diminishing democracy.

Modi’s reliance on his small coterie of Shah, Ajit Doval, S. Jaishankar and Nirmala Sitharaman instead of building a credible team has crippled governance. Even in states, he chose to thrust lightweights upon the party instead of using established leadership, sowing seeds of discontent within the organisation.

But he still managed to suppress discordant voices and preserve his myth of unchallenged greatness because of a bigger myth he so craftily wove – that he was loved around the world. “Videsh mein danka baj raha hai [‘there is a buzz (around Modi) abroad’],” as they said.

That bigger myth has exploded all of a sudden. While American President Donald Trump inflicted serious wounds on Modi’s image of a robust leader by sending Indians, chained and humiliated, back in military aircraft, his tariff war evoked no rebuff from a pliant New Delhi.

Modi had already created a problem by misreading China and he went on to tarnish India’s image by refusing to speak boldly on Israeli butchery in Gaza. The countries India stood with in abstaining from voting on a ceasefire resolution at the United Nations evoked national shame. While mass protests against genocide in Gaza are happening across the world, including the United States, the Modi regime didn’t allow that democratic space in India.

The foreign policy disaster burst out in the open when no country bought India's assertions that Pakistan was involved in the Pahalgam terror attack. This is a disquieting shift from the Mumbai attack, when the Manmohan Singh government completely cornered Pakistan through its diplomatic offensive. To add insult to injury, Trump repeatedly claimed he engineered the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. Modi couldn’t muster the courage to publicly call Trump’s bluff, finally burying the 56-inch narrative beneath the soil of surrender.

Also read: Why Modi Won’t Let Go of the BJP’s Reins

The speculation that the Adani Group's legal wrangles in America have tied Modi's hands has further added to the perception of personal liability that the prime minister of India could be grappling with.

Under these circumstances, the RSS-BJP should genuinely nurture doubts about their future. Modi’s image is beyond repair now. If Modi has to be removed, reasons are plenty. Modi has failed to fulfil his promises. Modi has damaged India’s prestige in the global community. Modi has destroyed India’s secular fabric. Modi has muddled up the Gandhian philosophy of truth and non-violence with his pretensions about the doctrine of force.

No, not because of age. To bring in the age factor is to trivialise the discourse. Will a much younger Shah, Anurag Thakur or Tejashwi Surya make a better prime minister? Incompetence and failure are the valid causes, not age. The RSS-BJP wouldn’t have dreamt of raising the question of Modi’s removal if he still fetched votes for them, if he managed to preserve the myth of his international and corporate acceptability.

The RSS-BJP, if they opt for replacement, will make cold calculations on the basis of pragmatism and strategic vision. Modi is now undesirable because the very mechanics that sustained his public image stand dismantled. Nothing, not even a brazen attempt to present himself as a non-biological divine entity, can refurbish his image now. The RSS may be uncomfortable with a lame-duck prime minister, not with an ageing leader.

Some observers believe the Bihar election is the last chance for Modi to redeem himself. That may be fallacious because electoral victories now do not carry that legitimising impact. The BJP won both Haryana and Maharashtra, but that deepened suspicions about electoral malpractices instead of bolstering Modi’s political swagger. The Election Commission’s desperate intervention for a special intensive revision of the electoral roll just before the election in Bihar has already vitiated the atmosphere.

The RSS-BJP now needs a new project. They know Modi’s social contract has lapsed. To let Modi lead the party into the next parliamentary elections in 2029 looks unthinkable at this stage. When the replacement will come is now a matter of time. That’s the call of realpolitik, not age.

Sanjay K. Jha is a political commentator.

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