New Delhi: The recent Assembly election results have marked a metamorphic shift in Indian politics with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) dominating in Delhi, Maharashtra, and Haryana while Chhattisgarh proved to be an exception. What initially seemed like small, localised battles have now evolved into a broader national trend, where the ruling party has considerably consolidated power, exposing the vulnerabilities and weak spots among the opposition parties that appear increasingly fragmented and ineffective.
While each state possesses its own distinct socio-political and electoral landscape shaped by a complex socio-economic identity, a clear pattern arises when viewed collectively: the BJP’s adaptability to dynamic socio-political realities and ability to exploit opposition’s weaknesses and evolving voter preferences. The debate now is whether India is progressing towards a phase of single-party rule or if the opposition can still regain its lost influence. The door definitely remains open for the opposition parties to regain lost ground.
This analysis explores the trends and patterns shaping India’s socio-economic electoral base, driven by factors like social stratification, economic vulnerabilities, and caste-based mobilisation, and examines how these transformations respond to India’s shifting political landscape.
Beyond electoral math, the recent Assembly results signal a deeper political evolution in India. Indian voter turnout is increasing, with women turnout surpassing male turnout in most electoral constituencies. The voter is increasingly becoming more consumerist and transactional. At the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum, voters prioritise experienced development, whereas those at the top tend to be influenced by ideological considerations.
Maharashtra: A microcosm of electoral complexity
In Maharashtra, the BJP effectively positioned itself as the party that would bring stability amid the turmoil of intra-party conflicts within the opposition. The BJP making its way in agricultural regions of Maharashtra indicated a greater transformation in rural political dynamics beyond simplifying it as divisions within opposition.
Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar. Photos: Official X accounts.
Historically impacted by hardships in agriculture, farmers in regions such as Vidarbha appear to be attracted by narratives of sustainable development and economic integration rather than transient relief measures. The narrative perpetuated by the BJP – that opposition parties failed to present a viable alternative – helped garner support for the party, even in areas typically skeptical of its economic policies.
With a per capita income of Rs 2,52,389 in 2022-23, Maharashtra encapsulates India’s diverse electoral landscape. The state’s distinct regions – ranging from the high-income urban centres of Mumbai and Pune to the industrial hubs of Nashik and Aurangabad and the agrarian heartland of Vidarbha – exhibit varied voting patterns. While the BJP and its allies secured a decisive victory in the November 2024 state elections, winning 233 of 288 seats, voter preferences were shaped by factors beyond income levels.
Source: ECI
The per capita income in Mumbai is reported to be Rs 4 lakh, making it the highest among all the 36 districts in Maharashtra and estimates indicate that Thane City’s per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is over Rs 3 lakh, nearly double that of the state’s average. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance maintained dominance, securing 22 of 36 seats in the Mumbai city belt.
However, in the agrarian Vidarbha region where per capita income is significantly lower at Rs 65,368 and agricultural distress remains acute, the BJP’s increasing influence suggests that long-term development aspirations and dissatisfaction with previous administrations – which were dominated forces in these areas – played a crucial role in shaping voter choices.
Vidarbha has been at the centre of Maharashtra’s agrarian crisis, with farmers struggling to secure fair prices for crops like cotton and soybean. Despite the Union government’s announcement of a support price of Rs 4,892 per quintal for soybean, farmers have been forced to sell at Rs 3,500-Rs 4,000 per quintal, barely covering production costs. The region has also witnessed a tragic spate of farmer suicides over the past three decades, underscoring deep-seated distress in the agricultural sector.
In the traditionally NCP-Congress-dominated sugar belt of Western Maharashtra, the Mahayuti alliance made significant inroads, securing 53 of 70 assembly seats. This shift in entrenched political loyalties was driven by evolving socio-economic factors. Similarly, in Marathwada, a predominantly agrarian region, political mobilisation played a crucial role. Maratha reservation leader Manoj Jarange Patil led an unprecedented agitation across Maharashtra, particularly in Marathwada and Western Maharashtra, triggering counter-mobilisation by the Other Backward Castes (OBCs) and reshaping electoral alignments.
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A comparison of voting patterns between the 2024 general and Assembly elections reveals key trends. In the Assembly polls, the Mahayuti alliance made notable gains in economically disadvantaged districts. It secured 46.8% of the votes in districts where per capita income was below Rs 1.4 lakh, reflecting a 6.3 percentage point increase from the general elections. In contrast, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, which had previously outperformed Mahayuti in these regions during the general elections, experienced a decline, losing ten percentage points.
This electoral shift highlights a realignment in Maharashtra’s political landscape. While Mahayuti performed better in wealthier districts during the Lok Sabha polls, poorer districts leaned towards the MVA. However, in the Assembly elections, Mahayuti surpassed the MVA across all economic categories, consolidating its position state-wide.
Further the division within the Shiv Sena and the NCP in Maharashtra considerably helped the BJP. The opposition’s inability to present a united front turned what could have been a closely contested election into a landslide for the ruling coalition.
Haryana: Economic strength and political consolidation
The Congress party’s internal conflicts and over reliance on outdated campaign strategies hindered its ability to pose a substantial challenge to the BJP. Even though farmer organisations strongly opposed the saffron party yet it was able to retain power. The BJP secured 39.94% votes, winning 48 out of 90 seats, while Congress obtained 39.09% votes, winning 37 seats. This marked the BJP’s third consecutive term in Haryana, a historic milestone.
With a per capita income of Rs 2,96,592 in 2022-23, Haryana witnessed the BJP reinforcing its political dominance in this Assembly election, marking the party’s strongest performance in the state, with 53.3% of seat share and 39.4% of vote share. However, Haryana’s agricultural heartland, with a per capita income of Rs 1.64 lakh, presents a more nuanced electoral landscape. Factors such as farm policies, caste dynamics, and the decline of regional parties like the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) introduce layers of complexity. A closer analysis reveals a growing Congress presence in rural areas.
Source: ECI
According to an analysis by The Hindu, in districts where cultivators and agricultural workers constitute over 65% of the workforce, Congress secured 40.4% of the vote – an 18-percentage point surge from 2019. In regions where agricultural workers comprised 50-65% of the workforce, Congress gained nine points. However, in areas where they accounted for less than 50%, its gains were limited to 4.5 percentage points.
This pattern suggests that Congress’s resurgence was largely driven by agrarian distress, whereas in non-agricultural areas, its appeal remained constrained. A similar trend emerged when comparing rural and urban voting patterns.
Haryana chief minister Nayab Singh Saini (L) and Congress leader and former Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Photos: Official X handles
Economic factors, especially Gurugram’s urban industrial growth and expansion and the BJP’s skill in using caste dynamics to capitalise on the voter preferences, shaped their success. Naming Nayab Singh Saini as chief minister made the party navigate complicated caste interactions, thereby securing a vital vote base. The opposition, on the other hand, has faced challenges in formulating persuasive messages that resonate across all regions and demographics.
Delhi: The city-state’s electoral shifts
Accusations of corruption, especially the liquor policy case and the controversy revolving around the expenditures incurred on renovation of the chief minister’s residence, the “Sheesh Mahal,” significantly dented the prospects of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, leading to a nearly 10% decline in its vote share to 43.8% in 2025 from 53.6% in 2020; conversely, the BJP improved its share by 7.3% to 45.8%, thereby winning 48 out of 70 seats.
Delhi, with a per capita income of Rs 4,61,910 (2023-24), is a classic case of the impact of economic stratification on electoral results.
Economically well off neighbourhoods, especially in South Delhi (like Vasant Vihar and Greater Kailash), largely supported the BJP, whereas East Delhi neighbourhoods (such as regions like Laxmi Nagar and Mayur Vihar) showed varied voting trends. Simultaneously, the AAP maintained its bastion in North Delhi, particularly around Timarpur and Burari, highlighting the importance of localised political allegiances.
An illustration of top AAP leaders — Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia and Saurabh Bharadwaj — who have lost their seats with Congress securing more than the margin of their losses (The Wire, Canva)
The working-class and lower-middle-class voters, especially in Outer Delhi and East Delhi areas such as Seelampur, Mustafabad, Shahdara, and Uttam Nagar, significantly backed the AAP amidst raising concerns like high unemployment rate (55%) and escalating prices (52%) as indicated by an election survey conducted by Lokniti CSDS . The survey also highlighted that the middle-class and business-class voters, residing in regions like Dwarka, Patel Nagar, and Karol Bagh, largely supported the BJP, with 76% citing corruption as a concern and 59% emphasising development as their main priority. Further, Congress, attempting to cultivate a unified voter base, experienced its support divided across diverse issues, including cleanliness (42%) and inflation (49%).
In constituencies with lowest property price values, the AAP achieved an optimal performance obtaining 48.5% of the vote. The overall support diminished markedly by 8.2 percentage points and in affluent areas it dropped by 12 points.
The BJP’s win highlighted the serious weakness of the opposition. The AAP’s previously invincible status in Delhi fell apart due to its failure to effectively address corruption allegations, while its efforts to extend its influence beyond Delhi reduced the focus that had earlier made it powerful.
An evolving political landscape and future of opposition politics
Post these Assembly elections, the events that will follow are crucial for electoral politics in India. The divided INDIA bloc, the aim of which was to collectively oppose the BJP’s electoral machinery, now confronts an existential crisis.
Looking at these results, uniting only behind an anti-BJP logic will be insufficient. The opposition parties require a persuasive vision that appeals to a broader voter base. In the absence of internal changes, improved coordination, and a total overhaul of their political narratives, opposition parties may become mere onlookers.
The BJP’s trajectory can be explained by their planned use of governance narratives that align with both regional and nationalist sentiments of the populace. In Delhi, the party presented itself as the only option against AAP’s inadequacies, pledging to enhance urban infrastructure, enforce laws more rigorously, and provide a much needed boost to Delhi’s economy.
In Maharashtra, the BJP effectively positioned itself as the party that would bring stability amid the turmoil of intra-party conflicts within the opposition. In Haryana, opposition parties faced challenges in formulating persuasive messages that resonate across all regions and demographics.
The use of technology, social media, and digital outreach by the BJP had a significant influence on the recent elections. Ability of the party to utilise data-driven campaign methods, micro-target constituents, and customise messaging for various locations significantly influenced the indecisive voters.
The opposition, conversely, depended heavily on the conventional campaigning methods, not being able to engage the electorate in a manner that would appear as dynamic and personalised. The significance of digital involvement in modern day elections cannot be underestimated, and the opposition’s failure to keep up with the BJP in this field resulted in substantial losses.
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The scope of welfare politics is experiencing a metamorphosis. The AAP and Congress have traditionally depended on the politics of subsidies and welfare initiatives to maintain their electoral support, whereas the BJP has shown that a combination of welfare and development-focused campaign is more attractive. The commitment to upgrade infrastructure, smart city projects, and optimised business ecosystems has appealed to those who desire to see both economic and social stability. The conventional welfare model, without a broader economic framework, appears to be losing effectiveness in the present political landscape.
The recent Assembly elections have also shown that Indian politics transcends regional conflicts, evolving into a broader ideological struggle where the government, public perception, and strategic alliances determine victory. Should the opposition neglect to recognise this reality, it will not be able to overcome the defeat it has faced against the BJP. There is a necessity for a revised, progressive strategy. Will the opposition establish its position, or are we observing the beginning of the unchecked BJP supremacy? The response to this question will influence India’s political track for the upcoming decade and beyond.
The capacity of the opposition to transcend reactionary politics will determine the course of Indian democracy. Just opposing the BJP without offering a viable substitute won’t help. Opposition parties must propose visionary, inclusive, and pragmatic approaches to tackle social and economic challenges in a fast changing India.
The fight for India’s political future goes beyond simple electoral triumphs; it entails reimagining democracy, government, and the state’s role in a world growing ever more complex.
Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, and Director, Centre for New Economics Studies. He is a Visiting Professor at London School of Economics and an Academic Visiting Fellow to AMES, University of Oxford.
