Who? Picking a Successor for Dhankhar is Testing Modi-Shah's Nerves

The next vice-president will be in place after September 9, when the election is scheduled for choosing a successor to Jagdeep Dhankhar. But the poll is expected to be a tricky affair for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

It cannot even be remotely suggested that the National Democratic Alliance, which has an ample majority, would not be able to install its leader as the next vice-president. But the process itself would be a sort of punishment for the prime minister, who so far used to virtually boast that he was the monarch of all he surveyed.

The cause for worry is that the opposition INDIA bloc has suddenly become active for the first time after the last Lok Sabha polls and is understanding, bit by bit, the game Modi plays in the states and at the Union, as well as with constitutional authorities.

Undoubtedly, Modi is not his own man. He is at his lowest ebb since becoming the prime minister 11 years ago, and the day-in-and-day-out tantrums of Donald Trump are all but trampling his self-esteem and confidence. The strong man has suddenly started looking weak. Thanks to the controversial US president who says, in effect, that Modi is his friend but he loves Pakistan.

The problem for Modi and his men is that they cannot accuse Trump of speaking the language of Pakistan – a preferred abuse usually directed at the opposition, especially the Congress – when the Modi dispensation wants to hide its failures or wants to dodge inconvenient questions.

Already beleaguered, Modi could face a Hobson’s choice while deciding the next vice-presidential candidate of the NDA, unlike when he elevated the then Union Minister M. Venkaiah Naidu and later the then Bengal governor Dhankhar. Naidu, a former BJP president, either wanted a second term or to be elevated.

If the talk in political circles is to be believed, the prime minister was not that happy with the job Naidu did as vice-president, who the ex-officio Rajya Sabha chairman. But Dhankhar, who projected himself as an ultra-loyalist, proved to be a disaster in the way he was forced to go.

It looks like Modi does not really like any constitutional authority who tries to take even the slightest attention from him. He also does not like them to uphold rules and regulations when inconvenient to him. For him, they are showpieces adorning constitutional posts.

Modi’s ideal candidate for such posts is someone like Ramnath Kovind, who by far has been one of the most invisible presidents of India.

Everyone who is anyone in the government must play second fiddle. Modi’s problem with Nitin Gadkari stems from the fact that sometimes he is too free and frank. Accounts are rife on how Gadkari remains "seated" when Modi enters the Lok Sabha, unlike each and everyone in the ruling dispensation who gets up to greet the leader. Many chant slogans to hail the PM.

The PM even forced Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat to play sidekick at the consecration ceremony at the Ram temple in Ayodhya, a year ago. The moral of the story is that no one else matters in the creation of the myth of Modi.

But it is enbaling a backlash. The all-powerful duo of Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah have failed to choose a successor to BJP chief J.P. Nadda for the past 14 months. It is not just a coincidence. The more time there is to choose the next BJP chief, the more the message goes that Modi-Shah are not the ultimate authority, as has been the case so far.

Modi’s first trip to Nagpur as prime minister four months back apparently to pay obeisance to the RSS top brass, has failed to make any breakthrough so far. Sanjay Joshi, the RSS man Modi is known to dislike the most, has been active for quite a while.

Besides, Modi 3.0 is a different cup of tea, as the prime minister is at the helm only thanks to the crucial crutches provided by Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, who is the Janata Dal (United) chief, and Andhra Pradesh chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu, heading the Telugu Desam Party. Everyone has an axe to grind, to put it mildly.

Deputy chairman of the Rajya Sabha Harivansh is believed to be Nitish and Modi's go-between. He would like to be elevated in view of the given situation. Generally, he conducts the House well and is not brazen. He also knows which way the bread is buttered. His elevation could be a signal to Nitish that his interests would be protected after the Bihar polls, scheduled this year.

Modi could be comfortable with the likes of Nadda and Rajnath Singh, who have remained yes men in whatever capacities they were sent.

Om Birla, as the Lok Sabha Speaker enjoying the second term, has also shown that he is an all-purpose man.

Speculation of Uttar Pradesh chief minister Adityanath being forced to become the next vice-president need not be taken seriously given the fact that the RSS has much faith in him for larger responsibilities.

While deciding on the next vice-president, the PM has to strike a balance, as the president is from eastern India.

If early indications are correct, the opposition is expected to fight the next vice-presidential poll well, and if INDIA succeeds in having a credible face as its nominee, the election will become more exciting. Modi has his job cut out.

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