Why Assam's Dibrugarh Seat Is Not Easy to Forecast – Unlike What Himanta Would Have Us Believe

Dibrugarh (Assam): Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, and a few from his immediate coterie, have been stridently forecasting the election results in Assam in the last few weeks in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). 

As per their claim, amplified by the local media, the BJP will be winning 11 or 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats of the northeastern state. 

Sarma’s list includes the Dibrugarh seat where former state chief minister and now a minister in the Narendra Modi government, Sarbananda Sonowal, is the party’s candidate. Sarma predicted ‘a massive victory’ for the Union minister, and said his winning margin would be ‘three lakh votes’. 

Sonowal, a former All Assam Students Union (AASU) leader, has been electorally challenged by Luringjyoti Gogoi, president of Asam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), a regional party born of the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act movement in Assam. Like Sonowal, Lurinjyoti had jumped into state’s politics from the AASU leadership stable. He had unsuccessfully contested from the Duliajan and Naharkatia assembly constituencies in 2021 and was defeated by BJP in both the seats.

This time around, Lurinjyoti is yet again challenging the ruling BJP, hinging his campaign on its support to the implementation of CAA in Assam and thereby violating a primary clause of the Assam Accord of 1985. 

Lurinjyoti being the joint candidate of the INDIA bloc, it is a straight fight between him and Sonowal. With the campaigning heating up before the voters go to the polling booth tomorrow, April 19, the question in the mind of many political observers is, will the poll results in Dibrugarh be as linear as CM Sarma has predicted?

Will it be Lurinjyoti’s second consecutive defeat at the hustings?

Will David be able to tame the Goliath?

Anatomy of a constituency

Spanning the districts of Dibrugarh and Tinsukia, the Dibrugarh LS constituency has 10 assembly segments. After delimitation last year, the Chabua assembly segment (which along with Lahowal has been reframed as Chabua-Lahowal) is now a part of Dibrugarh LS constituency, which was earlier under the Lakhimpur parliamentary seat. 

Out of over 16 lakh voters in Dibrugarh, those in the tea gardens play a critical role. However, the Assamese speaking population which include Ahoms, caste Hindus, Moran, Matak, Chutiya, Sonowal Kachari and some other ethnic communities collectively hold the lion’s share of total votes.

There are also sizeable number of Bengali and Nepali voters in the LS constituency besides a chunk of Hindi speaking voters. The vote share of different communities in the LS seat has played an important role in deciding the fate of a candidate and this election is no different. 

Rameswar Teli and BJP’s success rate in Dibrugarh

In the 2019 general elections, Dibrugarh was among the nine seats BJP pocketed in Assam. It was the BJP’s biggest haul ever in the state.

Rameswar Teli was sent to the Lok Sabha by the electorate from Dibrugarh. As mentioned earlier, a large chunk of the electorate belongs to the tea tribe, the Adivasi community to which Teli belongs. 

It was Teli’s second straight win in that Lok Sabha seat which till his 2014 win, was a Congress pocket borough. Congress’ Pawan Singh Ghatowar who also belongs to the Adivasi community, had been elected from the seat between 1994 and 2009, with a break in 2004 when Sarbananda Sonowal won that LS seat as a candidate of his earlier party, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).

After the 2019 win, Teli was made a minister of state in the Modi government. Thus the BJP could equal the Congress’ move – it had also made Ghatowar a Union minister. This was a strong message the BJP sent to Adivasis in upper Assam – that it wants to hold the community back from going back to the Congress. The community’s votes can decide several assembly and LS seats in upper Assam as the majority of the assembly and LS segments of the state are in upper Assam districts.

Since 2016, most of the assembly segments that make up the Dibrugarh Lok Sabha seat have also been electing BJP MLAs. If we add to it the 2014 win of Teli from the Dibrugarh Lok Sabha seat, it can safely be said that the voters in that area have been favourable to the BJP since the time of Modi’s rise in national politics. By that logic, Sonowal should win by a huge margin as Sarma has predicted.

However, denial of the party’s ticket to Teli adds a new dimension to the fight. Though there is no prize in guessing that Teli’s chips may have been down for some time in Dibrugarh and Sonowal was named by the party to offset that anti-incumbency, the question does remain as to whether the community would choose the BJP this time around without Teli leading the fight. This is the first time in recent history that none of the primary contenders of the LS constituency belong to the Adivasi community.

The party has ensured that Teli is seen accompanying Sonowal in most campaign meetings. 

Stephen Lakra, chief adviser of the All Adivasi Students Association of Assam, a powerful student body of the community, however, told The Wire, “We cannot ask our people to vote for the BJP this time. Our tea tribe has benefited nil during the BJP’s tenure – our wages have not been increased (as promised), we have not been given land rights, the demand of giving Scheduled Tribe status to six communities of upper Assam have been kept in the cold storage. And education and health facilities in the tea gardens are in a dismal condition.”

Lakra said, “We are (therefore) supporting Lurinjyoti and we believe he would get over 1.5 lakhs votes from the tea gardens.” He told this writer, “AASAA is campaigning for him and other candidates from the opposition in the other LS seats as well.”

CPI (ML) leader Balindra Saikia, whose party is supporting Lurinjyoti as an INDIA bloc candidate, told The Wire that as a candidate representing Assamese jatiotabad (sub-nationalism), Lurinjyoti would have an edge amongst the Assamese-speaking voters in general.

While hinting that majority of the non-Assamese speakers would go with the BJP in these elections – especially after Union home minister Amit Shah carried out a roadshow in their stronghold Tinsukia this past week – Saikia also cited a past example from the constituency which can alter things on the ground. “When Sonowal won in 2004 (as an AGP candidate), Congress tried to mobilise the tea garden voters and the non-Assamese speaking people against him (like BJP is attempting this time) but it failed. Like for the BJP now, Dibrugarh too was a Congress stronghold then.” 

He also said, “It would be wrong to think that the entire tea-garden voters are with the BJP. Price rise, denial of minimum wages, etc. are big issues in the tea gardens. Moreover, the Christians amongst the tea tribes have decided to go against BJP this time.”

AAP’s candidate

While the fight is being widely seen getting sharper between Sonowal and Lurijyoti, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has also launched a candidate of its own in the Dibrugarh seat. Interestingly, the candidate, Manoj Dhanowar, belongs to the Adivasi community. In the run-up to the April 19 voting, with his campaign heating up too, it adds a new dimension to the contest. 

However, Lakra is of the opinion that this will benefit Lurinjyoti. Dhanowar is a known Adivasi leader locally and that should help him to pull away votes from the BJP, he said. “Dhanowar will pull BJP’s votes from the gardens which will help Lurin,” said Lakra, while also adding, “But he is not a factor in Dibrugarh this time.” 

Lurinjyoti’s stand on CAA

Local political observers that The Wire spoke to felt that Lurinjyoti’s image as an uncompromising youth leader may help his electoral chances, particularly his uncompromising stance on the CAA among the Assamese-speaking voters. 

On one hand, Sonowal’s tenure as chief minister witnessed massive protests against the CAA where five youths had also lost their lives (in 2019). On the other, Lurinjyoti has emerged in the mainstream political fray on the backdrop of the anti-CAA movement. 

Though both Lurinjyoti and Sonowal came from the AASU, Sonowal started his political journey with the AGP before jumping to the BJP while Lurinjyoti chose a different trajectory by forming a new party fastened to Assamese sub-nationalism and sharply contradicting some of the BJP’s policies. 

Bhushan Jyoti Handique, principal of Aniruddhadev Junior College in Dibrugarh and a keen observer of politics in Assam, told The Wire that in the fight between Lurinjyoti and Sonowal, both have “a 50-50 chance.”

“However, the Assamese sentiment is tilting more in favour of Lurin. With implementation of the CAA by the BJP in Assam, this sentiment has sharpened, even though there are no agitations on ground like in 2019. Lurin is seen as an uncompromised political personality,” he claimed.

Apart from Lurinjyoti’s stance on the CAA, his decision to stand by the long-standing demand of ST status to six Assamese communities who have a considerable say in the Dibrugarh LS seat has also the potential to tilt the results in his favour, felt Handique. “The issue appears dormant at the moment but it will surely benefit Lurin.”

Jyoti Prasad Chaliha, retired vice principal of Tinsukia College, tracing the history of the election results in the Dibrugarh Lok Sabha seat to 1967, told this writer, “The Congress seemed invincible in our constituency then. In spite of it, Ajit Sarma of the united socialist party polled 67,000 votes against Congress’s Jogen Hazarika who polled 95,000 votes. My point is, if Lurin can successfully capitalise the under-current, he has a fighting chance.” 

Role of Congress and Raijor Dal  

Uddip Jyoti Gogoi, secretary of Lurinjyoti’s party, the AJP, and a key campaigner in the LS seat, came across hopeful of gaining ground for their candidate in the tea gardens. He said that the Congress networks (in the tea garden areas) “are active now” and the section of youth “is optimistic” about Lurinjyoti’s prospects.

In addition, opposition MLA Akhil Gogoi, activists of his party, Raijor Dal, and its sister organisations, SMSS (Satra Mukti Sangram Samit) and KMSS (Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti), are also being seen campaigning extensively for Lurinjyoti.

Still, as per some AJP leaders, all is not well for Lurinjyoti yet. Congress matters a lot for him, especially in mobilising the tea garden voters. They expressed concerns about Congress’ lackadaisical approach towards transferring the party’s votes to Lurinjyoti as a joint candidate. Bhushan Jyoti Handique also felt that Congress workers “are not visibly campaigning” for Lurinjyoti. Other local observers also raised similar concerns. 

Conceivably, there may be internal tides within the rank and file of the Congress. Take the example of Dondi Sonowal. He is an elected General Member of the Sonowal Kachari Autonomous Council. He told this writer that Lurinjyoti should not have been given the Dibrugarh LS seat by his party, the Congress. APCC leaderships should have discussed the matter before it was declared, he felt. 

In the 2021 assembly elections too, the Tinsukia LAC was given to the Rashtriya Janta Dal. Local Congress leaders said that too was given away without any discussion with them. “Such decisions discourage the workers,” said Dondi Sonowal. Nonetheless, Congress workers are campaigning for Lurinjyoti, he said, adding, “I have also conducted several meetings at places like Tingkhang, Khowang for Lurin.”

Dondi Sonowal is a Sonowal Kachari, the community to which Sarbananda Sonowal belongs. He said Sarbananda is hoping to gain the majority of the Sonowal Kachari votes. But the majority of the people within the community may not support him this time, claimed Dondi Sonowal. It is because when the community was struggling for an autonomous council, as an MP, Sarbananda did not support the cause. The community has a vote share of nearly a lakh in the Dibrugarh LS constituency. Sarbananda Sonowal is also native to Dibrugarh’s Chabua assembly constituency. 

Amongst the Moran and Matak communities, two major groups in the parliamentary seat, votes may get divided between Lurinjyoti and Sarbananda Sonowal. Ranjit Gohain, president of All Assam Matak Yuba Chatra Sanmilan (AAMYCS), told The Wire that Sonowal usually gets “solid support from the community”. This time though, he may have to walk “a thorny path” because the Assamese resentment against the CAA “is strong amongst the Mataks”.

“Since the Matak Autonomous Council was established during Sonowal’s tenure as the CM, the goodwill he won is likely to reflect in April 19 voting too. Moreover, Rs.125 crores of funds were granted for the development of the Matak community during Sonowal’s tenure as chief minister,” Gohain said. 

Advantage for BJP

Since all the assembly segments are with the BJP, the party’s legislators are visible on ground, showing a unity of forces behind Sonowal. As mentioned earlier, Sonowal has a history of winning from Dibrugarh in 2004. Also, as the ex-CM and a Union minister, he carries the persona of a tall political leader in Assam. This probably is the reason why Sonowal was brought to the Dibrugarh fight by the party in the face of anti-incumbency against Rameswar Teli. By bringing Sonowal to the fight, BJP has hedged its bets. 

In addition, BJP’s organisational strength in Assam is a huge challenge to Lurinjyoti.

Sonowal and Modi’s model

In spite of all these advantages, it is no cakewalk for Sonowal, as chief minister Sarma would like to project to local media.

Sonowal appears rather defensive in his campaigns, resorting to the BJP’s national catch phrase “Abki bar 400 paar”. He has been campaigning in the name of Modi, betting on the beneficiary schemes of his party, and ‘development’ that the Modi government brought to Assam. 

Nevertheless, Sonowal could not escape commenting on the CAA. He was seen defending it, claiming that Assamese community is not so weak that CAA could pose an existential challenge, as opposition has alleged. 

Contrarily, Lurinjyoti’s campaigns encompass opposing inclusion of Assam in the implementation of the CAA; granting ST status to six communities which includes the Moran and Matak communities too, besides price rise, minimum wages for the Adivasis, addressing the issue of flood erosion in the Rohmoriya areas, and rising unemployment of youth. 

Political observers and voters that The Wire spoke to in Dibrugarh believe that votes would be cast in the LS constituency on basic issues, though the BJP’s ‘extravagant campaigns’, the state government’s beneficiary schemes, and its formidable organizational strength would play a role too. 

In the words of Umananda Moran, president of SMSS in Tinsukia district and a keen observer of these election campaigns, “Assamese sentiment will tilt in favour of Lurin; he will get 80 per cent of the votes of the Assamese communities, while majority of the non-Assamese speakers will vote for Sonowal as a BJP candidate. In this scenario, the tea garden votes will be crucial.” He also said, “In the recent days, we are observing a growing support for Lurin in tea gardens. However, Manoj Dhanowar is seen most popular candidate in the tea gardens, which indicate that he will pull the majority of the vote chunk.”

If there is any grain of truth in this claim, chief minister Sarma’s prediction of Sonowal winning the seat with ‘a margin of over 3 lakh votes’ seems unlikely.

Sandipan Talukdar is a Guwahati-based independent journalist.