Why Congress Has an Edge Over BJP in Madhya Pradesh

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in an election rally in Madhya Pradesh quoted from Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) veteran LK Advani’s memoir where he apparently said that the “original laboratory” of the BJP-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) was not Gujarat, but Madhya Pradesh. The election bound state is witnessing a fierce electoral battle  to preserve its laboratory so that its prospects to win the general elections of 2024 in the Hindi heartland remain intact.

The party, in spite of ruling the state for the last 18 years under chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, is not sure of winning the assembly elections and has therefore strategised its election campaign around Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This strategy is part of a familiar pattern that the party has adopted before many other state elections.

Modi’s centrality in state elections

A predominantly common theme adopted by the BJP  in all state elections, be it Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and now in poll bound States of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, MP and Telangana, is the prime minister’s centrality for seeking votes of the electorate in complete disregard of regional leaders of the party.

It was unmistakably demonstrated in MP where the BJP publicity vehicles and election programmes  play the song, “Modi ke mann mein basey MP, MP ke mann mein Modi.”(MP is in the heart of Modi, and Modi is in the heart of MP).”

Fielding BJP MPs and Union ministers to contest assembly elections

Madhya Pradesh chief minister Chouhan had to wait for getting a ticket when the party declared its third list of candidates. Even the prime minister did not mention his name in the meetings addressed by him in Chouhan’s presence even when the two shared a dias. Surprisingly, BJP MPs such as Rakesh Singh (former state BJP president), Ganesh Singh, Reeti Pathak and Uday Pratap Singh, apart from general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya, have been fielded to contest assembly elections in the state. More surprising is the announcement of the names of several senior Union ministers such as Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste.

Those announcements were interpreted by the media as BJP’s strategy to open the chief minister’s post to several top leaders of the party, putting Chouhan’s chances at stake who has served the state for 18 years. Eventually, Chouhan prevailed and got the BJP ticket to contest elections after he, in Modi’s presence, asked people in an election rally if they wanted him back as the chief minister and if Modi was their preferred choice for the prime minister or not.

Also read: ‘Ravidas Temple Is Fine, But What About Jobs and Education?’ Ask Madhya Pradesh’s Dalits

The prospects for BJP appear not so bright in MP because of the calculated manner in which regional leadership of the state has been relegated to a secondary status. Exactly the same thing was done in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka where the BJP lost. It is contrary to RSS mouthpiece Organiser’s editorial which categorically stated that after the BJP’s defeat  in Karnataka, Modi’s appeal and Hindutva alone would not be able to get votes for the BJP.

Three factions within the BJP

Regional leaders’ neglect combined with the internecine fights among different factions of the BJP in MP has considerably weakened its unity and solidarity in facing the anti-incumbency problem confronted by the Chouhan Government. It is widely reported in media that there are three factions within the Madhya Pradesh BJP- Shivaraj, maharaj (ruler) and naaraz (angry).

While the Shivraj faction is attributed to Chouhan, the maharaj faction is headed by Jyotiraditya Scindia, the erstwhile scion of the royal family of Gwalior, and the naaraz faction which consists of those dissatisfied and angry BJP leaders and workers who, in spite of their long years of association with the party, were sidelined.

Such a faction ridden party with its regional leaders completely neglected by the central leadership has found itself in a disadvantageous position to take on the relatively unified Congress which relied solely on a Madhya Pradesh-centric leader, Kamal Nath, to prepare its electoral strategy and put a decisive challenge to the BJP.

Hindutva as a strategic failure

Hindutva has failed to gain traction in MP in spite of aggressive campaigning by several BJP leaders. Union home minister Amit Shah raised the issue of the Ram Mandir’s completion in Ayodhya and even went to the extent of saying that the BJP government, if voted to power, would arrange a darshan (veiwing) of the deity for the people of MP at no cost.

Legendary Olympian Aslam Sherkhan, who played as part of the Indian hockey team in 1975 when India won the World Cup and later served as a Congress leader and Union Minister for Minority Affairs, said that Hindutva would never determine politics in MP because the tribal community and other backward classes (OBCs) make up for a large chunk of MP’s population and Hindutva is not major attraction for them.

He seems to be right in his assessment. There is an apparent failure of Hindutva as a strategy in MP where people are more bothered about the massive corruption alleged to have been associated with BJP government under Chouhan. They are equally concerned about the rising inflation and unemployment levels and that way this is impacting livelihood opportunities. Therefore, the caste survey details coming out of Bihar has hugely drawn the attention of MP’s OBCs which also include Muslims. Gandhi’s repeated assertion that caste census of the state would be carried when Congress assumes power is further derailing the Hindutva project.

Fifty Percent Government

Like in Karnataka, where Congress made “40% sarkara” a campaign plank to awaken people about the 40% commission taken by government agencies under the BJP rule there, the party has launched a blistering attack on the BJP government in MP and called it “50% government”.

Also read: Why The Hindutva Card is Not Working for BJP in Poll-Bound Madhya Pradesh

The message driven home by the party is that 50% commission is allegedly taken by the Chouhan Government. This has incensed the BJP leaders so much that several FIRs have been filed against Congress’ Priyanka Gandhi who first raised the issue.

In Ujjain’s Mahakal Temple corridor, which was unveiled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in October 2022, six out of the seven Saptrishi statues fell from their pedestals due to wind speed. Congress sharply criticised BJP Government for not even sparing the gods from the tentacles of its corruption.

Very strikingly all such charges are sticking and greatly embarrassing the Chouhan government leading to a growing perception that the BJP regime is deeply mired in corruption. To add to the BJP’s troubled in MP, three videos showing Union agriculture minister Narendra Singh Tomar’s son allegedly dealing with hundreds of crores of money with a foreign national has bolstered the perception that the BJP is riddled with corruption.

Against such a sordid backdrop, the BJP’s prospect do not seem to be favourable. But one has to wait for the outcome of the assembly elections to see if the opinion polls giving advantage to Congress over BJP are true or not.

S. N. Sahu served as Officer on Special Duty to President of India K R Narayanan.