Why Fall in Share of Women Voters in Bihar SIR’s Final Rolls Signals a Serious Regression

New Delhi: The story of Bihar’s changing electorate is best told in two numbers. In 1962, for every two men who voted, only one woman did, leaving a huge 22.4 percentage point gender gap in turnout. By 2020, that gap had inverted entirely, with female turnout of 59.7% decisively overtaking the male figure of 54.5%.

This is the story of a seismic, data-proven shift in democratic power, engineered by targeted policy and direct economic intervention. It is also the story of a new, alarming statistical paradox: just as women have become Bihar's most reliable voters, new data shows they are being systematically removed from the electoral rolls.

The turnout revolution

For half a century, the story was one of a slow but steady closing of the gap. During the political ferment of the Mandal era, male turnout peaked in 2000 at 70.7%, far exceeding the female figure of 53.3%. The watershed moment came in 2010, when, for the first time, female turnout (54.5%) surpassed male turnout (51.1%). It turned out that this was no anomaly. The trend accelerated dramatically in 2015, with women leading men by over 7 points, and continued in 2020, cementing a new electoral reality.

Table: Bihar Vidhan Sabha Turnout: Female vs. Male (%)

Targeting women

Psephologists credit targeted government policies for this transformation. Foundational schemes providing bicycles to schoolgirls and reserving council seats were amplified by the Jeevika rural livelihoods project. The scheme was recently supercharged when Rs 10,000 was transferred directly to 1.2 crore women – impacting nearly a third of all female voters.

The impact has been tangible. Kiran Devi in Jehanabad told The Hindu that the money meant a goat to start a business. For Bina Rani, it was the freedom to "travel beyond the threshold of her home." However, the picture is not universally positive. Ground reports from The Wire show impoverished Dalit women for whom the sum was too little to counter inflation, often used to pay off high-interest loans. Yet even these critics noted the scheme spurred more women to form self-help groups, confirming its political salience.

How women voted

Post-poll data from CSDS-Lokniti’s 2020 survey reveals that this bloc doesn't just vote in higher numbers; it votes with a distinct preference that often differs from the men in their own communities. While the overall vote was tight (Women: 38% National Democratic Alliance (NDA), 37% Mahagatbandhan (MGB); Men: 36% NDA, 38% MGB), the community-level data tells the real story.

The NDA's advantage with women was most pronounced among Upper Castes (59% of women for NDA vs. 49% of men) and Other OBCs (63% vs. 59%). Crucially, the trend held among Dalit women, who favored the NDA by a six-point margin over Dalit men (33% to 27%).

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This gender divergence also fractured the youth vote. Contrary to narratives of a monolithic youth wave, the overall vote was nearly tied in every age bracket under 60. But a gender breakdown shows that while young men aged 18-29 preferred the MGB (39% to 33%), young women in the same age group decisively backed the NDA (40% to 36%).

However, this pro-NDA trend among women was not universal. Among Yadav and Muslim voters, who form a core MGB base, women and men voted in similarly high proportions for the MGB. Yadav women (82%) and men (84%) were closely aligned, as were Muslim women (74%) and men (79%). This shows the NDA's "gender advantage" was powerful but concentrated within specific social coalitions.

Steep Decline in Women Voters is a Reversal

But the latest data on voters deleted from the rolls after the SIR, there are threats that undermine the larger trend of more women voters in the rolls. A recent Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has seen the gender ratio on Bihar's voter lists drop from 907 women per 1,000 men to just 892.

The investigation by The Hindu reveals a stark and perverse correlation: the higher a constituency's female voter turnout, the greater the number of women subsequently deleted from its rolls. 

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In Gopalganj, where an unprecedented 1,218 women voted for every 1,000 men, the gender ratio on the rolls then plummeted by 8.38%. In Kishanganj, the ratio fell by 7% after a high female turnout.

Across the state, a net 47 lakh voters (men and women) were removed. 

The data strongly suggests that women, Bihar's most enthusiastic and electorally distinct voters, were a disproportionate number of them. The very group that transformed the state's politics now faces a new battle – not just for influence, but for their fundamental right to be counted at all.

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