Sanjay K. Jha 
The Congress had 404 seats with 49.10% vote share in 1984 but crashed to 197 seats in 1989. A decline of barely 9.57% vote resulted in loss of 207 seats. The Congress had won 206 seats in 2009 with 28.55% vote. It slumped to 44 seats with 19.52% vote in 2014. This means 9.03% less vote causing loss of 162 seats. But pollsters are drumming into the audience that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 37.36% vote and 303 seats is like an impregnable fortress.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Statistical wonders defy political logic. In 1984, the BJP won only two seats with 7.74% vote. In 1989, the BJP jumped to 83 seats with 11.36% vote. A meagre rise of 3.62% brought in 81 seats. In 2014 also, the BJP got 282 seats with 31.34% vote. In 2009, it got only 116 seats with 18.80% vote. This translates into an increase of 12.54% vote and 166 seats in 2014. What is crystal clear is that a swing of around 9% to 10% is not impossible and that is enough to add or slice away over 100 seats.
The Congress hope springs from this reality. The strategists of the grand old party believe they will gain at least 5% vote because in this election there is no anti-incumbency against the Congress, which has been out of power for a decade, and there are no emotive issues like Pulwama-Balakot either. Prime Minister Narendra Modi presumed Ram temple will act as the pivot on which his campaign can be built but that proved to be fallacious. Even those who are ecstatic over the temple are not considering it as the primary factor motivating them to vote for Modi again. Even other themes like nationalism, terrorism and Hindu-Muslim polarisation have not worked on the ground, allowing basic livelihood concerns to override emotionalism in this election.
Many Congress leaders believe their gain would be much bigger because price-rise, unemployment, caste census and threat to Constitution dominated the electoral discourse. They also hope an additional 5% vote could come in many states because of alliances. The Congress has struck formidable alliances in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi and Jharkhand. Even in Gujarat, it has sewn up a coalition with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to prevent a split of anti-Modi votes. If transfer of votes from partners happen effectively, the total gain could be bigger than 10%, pushing the Congress vote to 30%. According to party strategists, this could result in a gain of 80 to 100 seats.
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A Congress party leader said:
“We heard one expert saying that the difference between the number one party and number two party could be three-four times. That means the BJP alone will win 450 to 500 seats because we are crossing 115. That’s a modest estimate. If we fetch 30% vote, we will cross 150. The BJP will crash to below 200 if they lose 10% vote. Nobody is saying the BJP will gain this time. Not possible. They are doomed to lose heavily in Maharashtra, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Haryana and Delhi. They will come down in Himachal, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat as well.”
“Their gains are going to be negligible in Odisha, and probably, Telangana. If somebody thinks the downhill journey is regulated, they will fall a few inches, they are wrong. The fall is usually bigger. In this age of communication explosion, the message travels faster. We know that the message had reached across the nook and corners of the country that the BJP will diminish. Even their supporters say they will form the government with a lesser majority. Past experience shows that the decline is limited; when you tumble in politics, you fall dangerously,” the leader added.
Further, the Congressman explained that “Haryana is a bell-weather state, with a large population of migrant workers” and they were “surprised to notice the dramatic change on the ground”. “We started hoping for a couple of seats and now we are on the road to win seven-eight seats. If we are in contest in Gurgaon, Faridabad and Karnal, the indications are clear that the BJP is in trouble. If we win seven-eight seats in Haryana, the BJP will certainly lose around 100 seats in the country.”
A Congress leader from Uttar Pradesh said:
“We are struck by a pleasant surprise. We thought the Congress-SP could win three-four seats as the BSP will cut into anti-BJP votes. The election changed magically and we saw an upsurge in our favour. In eastern Uttar Pradesh, some people say 60% voters are inclined towards the opposition alliance INDIA. There are at least 50 seats which can go either way. Nobody expected such a tough contest. In certain constituencies, we didn’t have the faintest of hope when the election started. We suddenly see a close contest. We will not be surprised if the BJP goes below 40 in Uttar Pradesh.”
On conditions of anonymity, another senior Congress leader said:
“We are not saying the BJP has been knocked out but it is a much closer election than being projected in the mainstream media. There are a large number of seats where the contest is too close to predict the outcome. There is no doubt that the BJP booth management is far superior to ours and they have enormous resources. We can’t spend even one tenth of what the BJP is spending. But the public has turned against the BJP. The anger over price-rise, unemployment, Agniveer scheme and the threat to Constitution created a logic against Modi’s continuance. That punctured the 400-plus bluster. Now, we are awaiting a result that shows the BJP much below the majority mark.”
The BJP, which abandoned the 400-plus boast midway, has yet again, resumed that debate. Home minister Amit Shah has categorically said that the BJP has already crossed 300 in six phases and was well on course to achieve its target. Many pollsters are also saying the BJP would finish much above the majority mark on its own and shall be above 300 with its allies. That means the BJP is set to increase its vote-share, defying the hostile conditions on the ground.
Sanjay K. Jha is a senior journalist.