The much awaited Karnataka results are in. And Bajrang Bali seems to be not so unhappy with the grand old party as the Noida media would like us to believe. The Congress has not just emerged as the single-largest party by besting the BJP, it is on the path to securing a comfortable majority, thus killing any hopes the BJP may have had of horse-trading its way to power. The Congress is winning more than twice as many seats as the BJP and is leading over the “largest party in the world” by a whopping seven percentage points in terms of vote share.
Even as the shielding of Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the blame for the Karnataka defeat gathers steam (despite Modi carefully centralising the campaign), even as the tectonic impact of the result on Indian politics begin to be undermined, make no mistake, the Karnataka verdict is one of the most stinging setbacks for Modi’s regime.
The loss in Karnataka severely dents BJP’s claim of being a truly pan-India party. It has lost power in the only South Indian state it ruled. Now, the BJP rules over no state in southern India and is reduced to largely ruling only Hindi-speaking or -understanding states (with the exception of Northeastern states with the tendency of aligning with the party that rules at the Centre). This lays to dust the carefully propagated image of the invincibility and the almightiness of Modi’s rule.
A shot in the arm for the Congress
Since his rise, Modi and his people have proclaimed aspirations of realising a Congress-mukt Bharat. It’s a dream that has long driven the Sangh parivar, guided as it is by a visceral hatred of Congress’s long history, undeniable contributions to India’s freedom struggle and deep presence across the length and breadth of the nation (without being bounded by BJP’s language barrier). For a time being, as Congress lost election after election, this dream seemed close to reality. But with the Congress handing the BJP back-to-back defeats and snatching two state governments from it within nearly a year, the BJP’s dream of a Congress-mukt Bharat has suffered serious blows.
The victory in Karnataka comes at a perfect juncture for the BJP’s prime rival, otherwise facing an existential struggle.
First, it hands over to the Congress an economic powerhouse of a state (Karnataka is India’s fourth largest economy) that can help ease its resource draught. This will enable it to put up a decent fight in Lok Sabha 2024.
Second, the Karnataka victory is Congress’s first head-to-head win against the BJP since the 2019 election in any major state election. This will significantly boost Congress’s morale and shift the momentum in its favour at just the right time.
Third, the narrative that the Congress can’t win against the BJP will face fresh scrutiny as the Karnataka model will provide the Congress with a different way to contest elections, with the emergence of new election managers with a successful model of localising elections, managing intra-party rivalry, ticket distribution, stirring anti incumbency (the brilliant PayCM campaign ), all tried and tested in Karnataka.
A personal defeat for Modi’s brand of politics
The Karnataka election saw Modi leading the BJP campaign from the front, sidelining all local strongmen, leading many stalwarts to leave the BJP. In fact, so immersed was Modi in the Karnataka campaigning that burning Manipur could also not merit his attention. Modi’s imprint was not just in the campaign time he devoted and talks around his “ashirwad” were BJP to win, but also in deciding to focus the BJP’s election narrative on divisive issues like Bajrang Bali and The Kerala Story, apart from the usual dose of self pity.
In contrast, BJP’s much derided “Pappu” – Rahul Gandhi – charted an altogether different course. The local leadership was empowered, defections from the party minimised, focus imparted to bread and butter issues such as Nandini and Pay CM, advanced mobilisation and ideological clarity was ensured through the Bharat Jodo Yatra that rejuvenated local party units, ensured unity and mobilised minority voters behind Congress (at the cost of JD(S)).
The sweeping victory of the Congress seems to have established that “Pappu can dance, saala” and like the hare and the tortoise story, Rahul the tortoise seems to have outwitted Modi the hare.
Also read: Why Congress’s Victory in Karnataka Is Particularly Significant
The BJP’s loss of Karnataka in such a spectacular fashion will weaken its 2024 Lok Sabha prospects on many counts.
First, BJP’s majority of 20-odd seats was built on the back of a sweep in Karnataka, Bihar and Maharashtra, apart from it winning over 90% of seats in the Hindi belt (and allied) states of UP, MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, HP, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand. Thus the prospect of the BJP increasing its tally in the Hindi belt is slim. And with the JD(U) and Shiv Sena no longer with it, already BJP’s chances of repeating its performances in Bihar and Maharashtra were bleak. Now, with its crushing loss in Karnataka, the BJP’s hope of repeating its tally from Karnataka too have suffered a serious setback, thus making it harder to win the same kind of majority in Lok Sabha 2024.
Second, the BJP, aware of its narrow pathway to a majority, was hoping to expand this pathway through better performances in Telangana and Tamil Nadu. But with the loss of neighbouring Karnataka, the BJP suffers a serious narrative setback in these states too.
Finally, the Congress victory in a head-to-head battle with the BJP in the first state to go to polls after the Bharat Jodo Yatra may be an indicator of renewed Congress performance in the states, thus endangering BJP’s prospects of a majority still further.
Praneet Pathak studies marketing at IMT and is a keen observer of Indian democracy.
