New Delhi: On July 22, the Issac-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN-Issac-Muivah) issued a press statement that said it has taken “a stand to guard the interest and safety of Christians in Manipur”.
The reason cited by the armed outfit, in peace talks with the Narendra Modi government since 2015, is Arambai Tenggol (AT), an armed outfit hinged on ultra sub-nationalist sentiments of the Meitei community of Manipur — in news since last year for allegedly instigating violence against the Kuki community in the state’s valley areas.
The outfit that also promotes the pre-Hindu religion of the Meiteis, Sanamahi, was founded by the erstwhile king of Manipur, Leishemba Sanajouba, who is also their sitting Rajya Sabha MP of the ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP). AT is also seen close to the state chief minister N Biren Singh.
The NSCN (I-M) statement said it has decided to guard the interest of the Christians of Manipur because Arambai Tenggol “bears strong animosity towards the Christians, both in spirit and actions”.
For a Northeast watcher though, the stand of the NSCN (I-M) came as a bolt from the blue. The outfit, even though dozens of churches were attacked in Imphal since the May 3 Meitei-Kuki ethnic violence had broken out, had remained silent.
Addressing that silence, the NSCN said in that statement that it maintained “neutrality”, and “cautiously” followed the “day-to-day development” during the ethnic clash.
In other words, it chose its ethnic identity even while religious places were attacked. Why then shift that “stand” of wait and watch when cases of violence including on religious sites, have gone down?
Not just the Kuki-Zo people, the majority of the Nagas in Manipur hills are Christians too. Why did NSCN take an ethnic stand of maintaining ‘neutrality’ earlier? Accusations against Arambai Tenggol as both anti-Kuki and anti-Christian (alleged by the church bodies) are not new.
Representative image. Photo: X/@manipur_police
Additionally, if you go by a chargesheet filed in a special court in Guwahati this past March by the National Investigating Agency (NIA) that is looking into some cases of violence on both communities during the last one year in Manipur, the China-Myanmar module of the NSCN (I-M) “gave logistics (logistical) and other support to the proscribed Meitei groups, Kanglei Yaol Kamba Lup (KYKL) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)”.
The central agency has named people like Moirangthem Anand Singh, who was arrested for the ethnic violence in the valley, as a PLA member. Singh has been accused of taking part in a “weapons training camp” organised by the banned outfit at an ecological park in Imphal during the violence. Members of the banned armed outfit KYKL, openly involved in the ethnic violence, had to be released by the security force on the demand of the Meitei women’s group Meira Paibi. The NSCN had denied the NIA’s allegations but the case is on.
Also read: Amidst Deepening Divide Between Nagas and Kukis in Manipur, Centre to Kickstart Naga Peace Talks
In light of these developments, how should one read the NSCN’s press statement that categorically shifts its position on religious grounds? In the last 24 hours, the statement has been widely circulated not just through local media but also in the mainstream media. Since yesterday, some mainland TV stations have taken it up for ‘discussion’ too.
What must be the purpose behind such a public shift of stand?
The Biren Singh factor
In an insurgency-prone border state where there are quite a few players, and their political masters are both within and outside Manipur, the ground has predictably been shifting continuously over the last one year. One constant, though, has been the chief minister N. Biren Singh’s presence at the helm of affairs. He has remained entrenched in Imphal even though the clamour for his removal has been heard both in the valley and the hill areas of the state.
Biren Singh could survive in his post only because his political masters in New Delhi, particularly the home minister Amit Shah, have been his biggest protector — supporting him both inside and outside parliament since the peak of the ethnic violence. That support is so firm that even the Prime Minister is ready to face criticism in Parliament and the anger of the local public.
Post the general election though, things are beginning to move. That the BJP under Shah’s leadership failed to deliver a better harvest for the party has certainly given the courage to some BJP leaders within the state unit, so also from the RSS, to talk about “the need for a change”. That Biren Singh failed to deliver to the party any of the two seats from Manipur has further helped matters.
Union home minister Amit Shah and Manipur chief minister N. Biren Singh during the BJP poll campaign in Imphal on April 15, 2024. Photo: X (Twitter)
Soon after the poll results were out, we saw RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat speaking out on Manipur too at a public forum. The electoral defeat of the BJP, particularly in the Inner Manipur seat, in which the majority of the voters belong to the Vaishnava and Sanamahi faith (and thereby counted as Hindus by the RSS) has not gone down well with the ideological fount of the party. The Imphal valley is seen by the RSS as the last Hindu frontier in India’s Northeast. The recent electoral defeat has made it clear to the RSS that Biren is increasingly becoming unpopular within the Meitei community.
As per top sources of the RSS in Manipur, the outfit has conveyed to Modi-Shah that it doesn’t want Biren Singh to continue on the post anymore, as the ground that RSS-BJP has gained in the state over the last 6-7 years would likely slip from under their feet.
RSS’s choice for the CM
Top sources within the outfit have confirmed to this correspondent that “the RSS has its own candidate for the CM’s post”.
“We would rather have former BJP state president Haobam Borababu Singh as the Manipur chief minister.”
“He has a clean image in the state and history is proof that he can take on people quite defiantly, and may be able to do something to break the impasse between the Meties and the Kukis.”
The sources also said, “But the issue at the moment is, he is not an elected member of the state assembly and has not won an election for some years now.”
Borababu Singh had shot to national fame in the early 1990s when he, as the Speaker of the state assembly, had famously refused to abide by an order passed by the Supreme Court. He had written a defiant letter to the then Lok Sabha Speaker Shivraj Patil that no Speaker should appear before any court.
The SC had asked him to present himself at the court for not following its order as per which the assembly secretary was to be reinstated. The secretary had carried out the SC’s order overturning the Speaker’s decision to suspend an MLA from the House, which went on to help a fellow party man from the Manipur People’s Party, Dorendra Singh, to remain in power. The issue came to such a pass that Borababu Singh’s passport was impounded by the Ministry of External Affairs in 1992 for defying the SC order because of which he couldn’t travel abroad to take part in the International Conference of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association.
Since 2000, the RSS in Manipur has been pinning hopes on the likes of Borobabu Singh to help BJP win assembly seats. In the year 2000, he had won for the BJP the Wangkhoi seat, no easy task then.
Borobabu Singh went on to head the BJP state unit; he had unsuccessfully contested from Wangkhoi in 2007 too.
In the Modi era, with the RSS working hard to topple the Okram Ibobi Singh government in Manipur, Borobabu Singh was sighted once more prominently, including sharing the podium with Modi during his visit to the state.
Another frontrunner
Aside from Borobabu Singh, another front-runner for the top post, being pushed by a section of the state BJP with New Delhi, is Thongam Biswajit Singh, a minister in the current Biren Singh government.
In 2017, Biswajit was a front-runner for the CM’s post before Biren Singh became the dark horse. Since then, Biren has been the Modi-Shah’s man in Imphal.
NSCN preparing for Biren’s exit?
Now, with the RSS’ pressure mounting on New Delhi to replace Biren Singh, and Modi-Shah unable to defend him like before due to the electoral loss, the general view among the political observers in Imphal is Biren Singh’s days are numbered.
It is here then the NSCN’s July 22 press statement – blaming an outfit seen close to the chief minister – gains significance. Is the NSCN then adding its weight to help New Delhi pull the plug on an unpopular chief minister? Is this the NSCN’s messaging – Biren Singh must go as under his watch, not just the Kukis but the Nagas too have drawn a firm line against the Meiteis? Such a possibility would certainly add to the existing resentment of a large swathe of Meities towards Biren Singh.
Till recently, Biren Singh has been utilising the Naga MLAs to ameliorate his relations with the Kuki leaders. Meetings to break the impasse had taken place at the neutral ground, Guwahati.
To say that there is no control of the NSCN (I-M) over the Naga MLAs would be far from the truth. Therefore, NSCN, from being the representative of an ethnic community facilitating talks to better relations between the two other communities that populate Manipur through the Naga MLAs, to suddenly hold up its religious identity to indicate that it is tilting towards the Kukis, doesn’t quite add up. The ethnic peacemaker is clearly leaving the table purportedly for religious reasons. And the blame for it has been squarely put on Arambai Tenggol, close to Biren Singh.
Surprisingly, AT has also issued a press statement, denying that it is anti-Christian. Calling it unfortunate, the AT’s release has said, “While we respect all religions and the right to religious practice, we stand firmly against any form of covert or overt conversion that seeks to undermine or destroy the cultural and religious heritage of the indigenous people of Manipur.”
That it took so much pain to describe itself as a ‘voluntary’ organisation that works only for the rights of indigenous people, thereby hinting that its interest is no different from that of the NSCN, only indicates that the wheels for a leadership change in Manipur have begun rolling.
