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Will Caste Politics Overturn BJP’s Anti-incumbency in Haryana?

author Aamir Shakil
20 hours ago
It will be interesting to see whether the BJP's approach of targeting OBC and upper caste voters will be successful, or if the Congress's strategy of appealing to the Jat and SC voters will prove more effective.

Since its formation in 1966, Haryana’s political landscape has been largely shaped by caste-based politics. Initially, the state’s leadership included figures from various communities — Bhagwat Dayal Sharma from the Brahmin community who became the first chief minister of the newly formed state, Rao Birender Singh from the Ahir community, and Bhajan Lal from the Bishnoi community. 

However, over the subsequent three decades, Jat leaders, who represent about 27% of the state’s population, dominated the political scene. Notable Jat leaders such as Bansi Lal, Devi Lal, Om Prakash Chautala and Bhupinder Singh Hooda played significant roles in this period. 

During this time, the two major political parties, first Lok Dal, then the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Congress party, were largely led by Jat leaders. Both the parties sought to build alliances with other communities, with the Congress successfully forming a coalition with Scheduled Castes (SCs), particularly the Chamar community, a dominant caste among the SCs; the SCs constitute around 21% of the state population. The dominance of Jat-centric politics continued unabated until the 2014 general elections. 

The 2014 Lok Sabha polls marked a pivotal shift in Haryana’s political dynamics, driven by the Narendra Modi wave, which propelled the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to unprecedented success. The BJP, which had not won any seat in the 2009 parliamentary elections, secured seven out of ten parliamentary seats in Haryana in the 2014 general elections. 

In the 2014 parliamentary elections, the BJP won few Jat-dominated seats like the Sonipat constituency. This surge was not solely attributed to Modi’s popularity as the BJP strategically formed new alliances with various communities.

Also read: Haryana’s Changing Political Arena: Legacy Families Fade While the Hooda Clan Maintains Dominance

The party aimed to consolidate support from ‘upper’ castes, including Brahmins, Banias, Punjabi Aroras, and Khatris, as well as Other Backward Classes (OBCs) such as Ahirs/Yadavs, Gurjars, and Sainis, and sub-castes like Valmikis and Dhanaks — to counter the influence of the Chamar community which traditionally supported the Congress party. 

In the 2014 assembly elections, which was held months after the parliamentary elections, the BJP leveraged this strategy to win 47 seats, a dramatic increase from just four in the 2009 assembly elections. 

The new political narrative of “35 biradaris (fraternity) versus one Jat biradari” emerged with the appointment of Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi, as the chief minister. To strengthen its position, the BJP also brought influential OBC leaders into its fold, such as Rao Inderjit Singh, a prominent Ahir/Yadav leader and former Congress member. 

The BJP’s focus on non-Jat politics was further evident in the 2019 parliamentary elections when the party fielded Brahmin candidate Arvind Kumar Sharma from the Jat-dominated Rohtak constituency, challenging Congress’s stalwart leader Deepender Singh Hooda. The BJP’s strategy paid off, and Sharma won the seat. 

Similarly, in the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 40 seats, although the election was followed by the Jat reservation protests of 2016. This protest and the marginalisation of Jat politics led to the loss of several prominent Jat leaders within the BJP, including Captain Abhimanyu from Narnaund, Om Prakash Dhankar from Badli, Subhash Barala from Tohana, and Premlata Singh, wife of former Rajya Sabha MP Birender Singh, from Uchana Kalan.

For the upcoming assembly elections, the BJP is once again focusing on consolidating the OBC vote. Just months before the election, the party replaced its chief minister, appointing Nayab Singh Saini, who belongs to the Saini community, which constitutes about 5% of the population. 

This move is seen as an effort to consolidate the OBC vote and address the anti-incumbency sentiments against Khattar. The party’s efforts to consolidate the non-Jat vote were visible in the recent ticket distribution too. 

Ticket distribution: Congress party gave priority to Jats while the BJP gave priority to non-Jats 

With Haryana’s assembly elections set for October 5, major political parties are making strategic moves in their ticket distribution, reflecting their caste-based priorities. Both the BJP and the Congress are tailoring their candidate selections to appeal to specific demographic groups, showcasing their distinct political strategies. 

The BJP, traditionally known for focusing on non-Jat politics in Haryana, has allocated 15 tickets to the Jat community, representing 17% of the total 90 seats. This is a reduction compared to previous years, with the BJP giving 19 and 24 tickets to Jats in the 2019 and 2014 assembly elections, respectively. 

In contrast, the Congress has maintained a stronger emphasis on Jat representation, awarding 28 tickets to Jats, which constitutes around 31% of the seats. 

This allocation is more in line with the Jat community’s 27% share of the state’s population. Despite the BJP’s success in the past in Jat-dominated parliamentary constituencies like Rohtak, Sonipat and Hisar, their decision to reduce Jat tickets this time may be influenced by the backlash from farmer agitations. 

Since the Jat community comprises many landowners and farmers, the BJP may be trying to avoid alienating this group further. Instead, the party is focusing on ‘upper’ caste and OBC candidates in their ticket distribution. 

For instance, in the Gohana assembly seat, which falls under the Sonipat parliamentary constituency and has a Jat population of around 39%, the BJP has fielded Arvind Kumar Sharma, a Brahmin, rather than a Jat candidate. This move is part of a broader strategy to consolidate non-Jat votes. 

The BJP’s emphasis on OBC and ‘upper’ caste groups is evident in their ticket allocation — the party has awarded 11 tickets each to Brahmins and Punjabi Khatris, who make up approximately 8% and 9% of the population of the state, respectively. This approach represents 24% of the total seats for both Brahmins and Punjabi Khatris.

Table 1. Ticket distribution by the BJP and the Congress (INC) on the basis of caste. Chart: Prepared by the author

The Congress, meanwhile, has given five tickets to Brahmins (about 6% of the seats) and six tickets to Punjabis (around 7%). This demonstrates a more balanced approach compared to the BJP’s focus on ‘upper’ caste and OBC groups. 

Notably, the BJP’s focus on Punjabi Khatri votes aligns with the background of former chief minister Khattar. The party’s allocation of 11 tickets to Punjabis marks an increase from the nine tickets given in the previous assembly election. Since 2014, the BJP has performed well in the GT Karnal Road region — comprising Kurukshetra, Ambala, Panchkula, Karnal, and Panipat — where the population includes a significant number of Punjabis, Vaishyas, and other OBC groups. 

The BJP’s strategy to field incumbent chief minister Saini, a prominent leader from the OBC community, from the Ladwa seat, part of the Kurukshetra parliamentary constituency, further reflects their intent to consolidate OBC support. This strategy is particularly relevant in Kurukshetra and Ambala, where the OBC community is significant. 

Also read: Protests, Black Flags and Public Backlash: Haryana Villagers Turn Against BJP Ahead of Assembly Polls

In a notable development, both the BJP and Congress have focused significantly on the OBC community in Haryana, which makes up 40% of the population. The BJP has allocated seven tickets to the Yadav community and six to the Gurjar community while the Congress party has assigned six tickets to Yadavs and seven to Gurjars. This strategic allocation aims to appeal to the OBC voters. 

The BJP has prominent Gurjar candidates, including Kanwar Pal Gurjar from the Jagadhari assembly and Leela Ram Gurjar, who defeated Randeep Surjewala in the 2019 assembly elections. The Congress has also fielded notable Gurjar leaders, such as Pradeep Chaudhary from the Kalka assembly and Shalley Chaudhary from the Naraingarh assembly seat. 

In the Samalkha constituency, where the Gurjar population is around 20%, both parties have fielded Gurjar candidates. The BJP has chosen Manmohan Bhadana, son of prominent Gurjar leader and former minister Kartar Singh Bhadana, while the Congress has selected Dharam Singh Chhoker, also from the Gurjar community. This reflects both the parties’ efforts to leverage the support of the Gurjar electorate in strategically important constituencies. 

However, the exclusion of several key OBC leaders from the ticket distribution has led to notable discontent. Karan Dev Kamboj, the BJP OBC Morcha president who was defeated by Congress’s Bishan Lal Saini in Radaur in 2019 assembly election, was not given a ticket this time, which resulted in his resignation from the party and joined congress in presence of INC s former Chief minister Bhupender Singh Hooda. This move underscores the BJP’s current strategy of prioritising larger OBC communities, as evidenced by their allocation of only one ticket to the Kamboj community, in contrast to the Congress, which has awarded two tickets to Kambojs.

Caste-wise ticket distribution by the BJP and the Indian National Congress (INC). Graph: Prepared by the author

The BJP has once again fielded two Bishnoi candidates — Dura Ram and Bhavya Bishnoi from the Fatehabad and Adampur assembly constituency, respectively. In contrast, the Congress has put forward only one Bishnoi candidate, Chander Mohan Bishnoi, a former deputy chief minister, who is contesting from the Panchkula assembly seat. 

Additionally, the BJP has nominated two Ror candidates — Harvinder Kalyan from the Gharaunda assembly and Satpal Jamba from the Pundri assembly. Meanwhile, the Congress has fielded just one Ror candidate, Sultan Singh Jadaula, from the Pundri assembly, where the Ror population comprises about 22% of the electorate. 

As the election approaches, these strategic decisions by Haryana’s major parties highlight their efforts to consolidate voter bases and address the state’s diverse demographic landscape. It will be interesting to see whether the BJP’s approach of targeting OBC and upper caste voters will be successful, or if the Congress’s strategy of appealing to the Jat and SC voters will prove more effective.

Aamir Shakil is a political researcher based in Delhi.

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