Sangeeta Barooah Pisharoty and Yaqut Ali 
New Delhi: While Bharatiya Janata Party Manipur in-charge Sambit Patra has been busy in discussions over a chief minister pick with party MLAs in the state, the northeastern state may end up having “at least three-months of President’s Rule”, top sources in New Delhi and Imphal have indicated to The Wire.
Long affected by insurgency, Manipur has witnessed President’s Rule or PR as many as 10 times since 1949. The last time it was under PR was between June 2001 and March 2002. If PR is clamped on Manipur now, the state’s residents would find themselves under Union government’s direct rule after 23 years.
Sources in the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) have told The Wire that the militarisation of Manipur is a concern that President’s Rule could help address.
“That the state has been considerably militarised is a matter of considerable concern for the central security forces. Militants from banned groups are active across the state, particularly in the valley areas. They were allowed to loot the state police armoury during the ethnic conflict. They are now turning against the common man; threatening and acting as a private army of some top politicians. Security forces are concerned that with the changing scenario in Bangladesh and the ongoing uncertainty and gunfights in Myanmar for control of areas along the India border, northeastern militant groups could surface again and set up camps along India’s Northeast border. Keeping such a serious threat in mind, New Delhi may agree to PR in Manipur at least for three months,” a source said.
Multiple sources said Manipur governor Ajay Bhalla is also in favour of first flushing out the armed groups and recover looted arms on priority.
“It is suspected that the [independence of the] Manipur Police was highly compromised in the course of the violence,” a source added. Biren Singh, who resigned last weekend, was also the state home minister, under whose jurisdiction the police falls.
A source claimed, “The Union home minister [Amit Shah] has been kept informed about all the developments. He has also had talks with the security brass including the director general of the CRPF, G.P. Singh.” Singh was recently relieved of his duties as director general of Assam Police.
Sources in Delhi and Imphal refused to say when PR would be announced. But they said that Governor Bhalla is set to send a report to President Draupadi Murmu “very soon”.
This February 6, The Wire had reported on the fierce fighting between Myanmar’s pro-junta and resistance forces just a few kilometres from the Indian border town of Moreh. It had forces villagers on Manipur side to flee for safety. The report had underlined that on the military side are the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA), a Myanmar insurgent group seeking statehood in Sagaing Region; the Pyu Saw Htee militia, a pro-military network of armed villagers; and the Imphal valley-based insurgent groups (VBIGs) – a term for rebel groups, led by Manipur’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Quoting reliable sources, the report had highlighted that the pro-junta forces had suffered more than 10 casualties, including “4-5 cadres of the VBIGs”. Among them were two officer-rank soldiers from the PLA and the United National Liberation Front (UNLF-Koireng), along with a cadre from the proscribed Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL) outfit.
The Wire has also learnt through independent sources that a central investigating agency probing a case of arms loot in the valley areas “have found direct link to a politician’s family.”
Some residents in Imphal that The Wire spoke to have stated that several armoured vehicles of central security forces “are being noticed” in the capital city.
Meanwhile, BJP MLAs met governor Bhalla at the Raj Bhawan today. A source present in the meeting told The Wire that while the MLAs initially sought the Union government’s intervention to remove Biren Singh as the chief minister, “they are now disillusioned with the BJP government and no longer wish to support any new government.”
While Bhalla is in favour of PR considering the party has not been able to muster support from the MLAs to form a new government, “Sambit Patra and the state’s top BJP leaders are pushing to form a government instead of PR,” a source said.
Meanwhile, there have been reports that Patra had reached out to the party’s Kuki MLAs too to arrive at a consensus on the new chief minister. The Wire reached out to Letzaman Haokip, a BJP MLA from the community who said he “is in a meeting,” but added, “No, I am not in any meeting to discuss the new CM.” Haokip further confirmed to The Wire that the BJP has so far neither invited the party’s Kuki MLAs, nor has it consulted them regarding the selection of the new chief minister. “Neither the central leadership nor Sambit Patra , who is in Imphal at the moment, have contacted me to discuss the chief minister’s post. Let them do as they wish,” he said.
Meanwhile, a clutch of names from the Meitei community have been doing the rounds as probables for the chief minister’s chair since Singh’s resignation on February 9. A state BJP source told The Wire from Imphal, “Though initially Speaker Satyabrata Singh was not in the race, now he too is a probable candidate. Besides, there is Yumnam Khemchand Singh. State BJP president Sharada Devi is a probable too as Manipur has never had a woman chief minister. Biren Singh’s candidates are Govindas Konthoujam and Thongam Biswajit Singh. Thockchom Radheshyam Singh is also a hopeful though has not been a politician for long – he was a senior police officer before this. The state RSS is supporting former BJP president Haobam Borababu Singh.”
On being asked if any MLA from the Naga community is being considered for the top post, the party sources said this question does not arise as there is no Naga MLA of the BJP in the state.
Though no one form the Kuki community has ever become Manipur chief minister, the state has seen two Nagas as chief minister – Yangmaso Shaiza of Janata Party from June 1977 to November 1979, and Rishang Keishing of the Congress between November 1980 and February 1981, and then again from June 1981 to March 1988.
Additionally, BJP’s ally Nationalist People’s Party (NPP) has decided to rejoin the BJP-led alliance in the state. NPP MLA and legislative party head Sheikh Noorul Hassan told The Wire, “It was Biren Singh we were opposed to. Now that the BJP has removed him, we are back in the alliance.” Hassan also held a separate meeting with Sambit Patra in Imphal to discuss the ongoing political situation in Manipur but refused to share any details.