Will SP's Dalit Outreach and BSP's Minority Push Reshape Uttar Pradesh's Electoral Arithmetic?
Asad Rizvi
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As Uttar Pradesh inches toward the 2027 assembly elections, the state’s two key regional contenders – the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) – appear locked in an intense political tussle. Both parties, once bound by distinct caste identities, are now venturing into each other’s traditional territories in a calculated bid to expand their social base.
The SP, led by Akhilesh Yadav, is aggressively wooing Dalits, while Mayawati’s BSP is making a renewed attempt to reconnect with Muslims and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) – the very groups that have sustained the SP for over three decades.
The SP’s strategy, which was unthinkable a few years ago, in Uttar Pradesh’s caste-polarised landscape, is now taking on an organised shape. In what many view as a symbolic but politically loaded move, the SP will observe the death anniversary of Dalit icon Dr. B.R. Ambedkar – Parinirvan Diwas – on December 6, with a grand event at Lucknow’s Indira Gandhi Pratishthan. Akhilesh Yadav will preside as chief guest, joined by MPs, MLAs, and Dalit leaders from across the state.
“This will be a historic occasion for Dalit unity,” said Mithai Lal Bharti, president of the SP’s Ambedkar Vahini. “Our cadres from all over the country will participate.” The Ambedkar Vahini, formed in 2021, has become the backbone of SP’s Dalit outreach.
From installing statues of Ambedkar beside Ram Manohar Lohia at its headquarters to celebrating Ambedkar Jayanti as “Dalit Diwali,” the SP has transitioned from symbolic homage to sustained engagement. The party’s “PDA” formula – focusing on Pichhda (Backward Classes), Dalit, and Alpsankhyak (Minority) voters – has repositioned it as an inclusive political platform rather than a Muslim-Yadav centric political party.
The results were visible in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the SP won 37 seats in Uttar Pradesh, becoming the third-largest party nationally. The BJP, by contrast, saw its Uttar Pradesh tally plummet from 62 to 33 – a staggering loss that weakened its parliamentary dominance. Analysts attribute this shift partly to non-Jatav Dalits who, disenchanted with the BSP and apprehensive about the BJP’s stance on the Constitution and reservation, swung toward the SP.
“Many Dalits, especially non-Jatavs, feared that another BJP term could threaten their constitutional safeguards,” said Lucknow-based political observer Deoki Nandan Mishra. “They saw Akhilesh as a safer bet.”
Also read: A Shift in Dalit Politics in Uttar Pradesh
The SP’s rising acceptance among Dalits has coincided with the BSP’s decline. Mayawati, who once commanded unshakable Dalit loyalty, has struggled to sustain her grassroots connection since losing power in 2012. The party, which won an absolute majority in 2007 through a unique social engineering formula combining Dalits, Brahmins, Muslims, and backward castes, has since suffered three consecutive Assembly defeats and three Lok Sabha drubbings. The BSP today has only one MLA in the 403-member state Assembly and no parliamentary representation – a precipitous fall for a leader once seen as a national Dalit icon.
Yet Mayawati seems determined to reclaim her space in Uttar Pradesh’s political narrative. Through a series of meetings in Lucknow following her October 9 rally marking Kanshi Ram’s death anniversary, she has intensified her outreach to Muslims and OBCs. The BSP’s Muslim Samaj Bhaichara Sangathan and OBC Bhaichara Varg Samaj Sangathan have been tasked with strengthening local networks, holding small meetings, and expanding membership drives.
On October 29, Mayawati convened Muslim leaders from all 18 divisions of the state, appointing both Dalit and Muslim conveners in each region. “These conveners will reach every assembly segment to spread awareness about the BSP’s ideology,” a party functionary explained. Reports from these efforts will go directly to Mayawati’s office for review.
“While other parties make hollow promises and use Muslims merely as vote banks, the BSP has always delivered justice, safety, and representation,” asserted senior BSP leader Munqad Ali. He recalled that under BSP governments, Muslims were not “falsely implicated in cases” and their institutions “remained protected.”
Mayawati, however, has been unrelenting in her criticism of both SP and Congress, accusing them of exploiting Muslim sentiment. She insists that only the BSP represents the “true Ambedkarite path,” uniting Dalits, OBCs, and minorities under the vision of social justice.
Her November 1 meeting with OBC leaders reaffirmed this focus. “The OBC community forms a crucial part of the Bahujan Samaj,” she told party workers. “Our past governments took concrete steps for their dignity, livelihood, and representation.” She lamented the fragmentation of OBC politics, saying that “separate caste organisations have weakened their collective strength,” while calling for unity under the BSP banner to “fight oppression and secure political empowerment.”
BSP state president Vishwanath Pal confirmed that Mayawati is closely monitoring district-level inclusion efforts among OBCs since March. “We’ve been organising small chaupals in villages to bring OBC groups together,” Pal said, although he refrained from revealing the party’s future strategy.
This recalibration signals a crucial shift in BSP’s priorities – from defending its Dalit bastion to reclaiming lost minority and OBC ground. But analysts remain skeptical about its effectiveness. “Mayawati has lost credibility among Muslims,” said political commentator Deoki Nandan Mishra. “Her silence during dalit atrocities and her visible bonhomie with Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in October rally raised doubts about her opposition stance.” Mishra added that “she’s now struggling to hold onto Dalits while trying to win back Muslims – a balancing act that seems increasingly difficult.”
The SP, meanwhile, appears to be capitalising on the BSP’s drift. Akhilesh Yadav’s Dalit push is not only symbolic of his party’s changing caste arithmetic but also a calculated bid to build a broad coalition that could challenge the BJP’s Hindutva narrative. By positioning Ambedkar alongside Lohia and Kanshi Ram, Akhilesh seeks to frame the SP as the natural inheritor of the Bahujan legacy.
Political observers believe the 2024 general elections were a turning point in this direction. “Akhilesh succeeded in projecting his party as a secular, multi-caste alternative that stands for social justice,”said Mishra.
The Congress’s marginal revival in Uttar Pradesh, driven by Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, also indirectly benefited the SP by reactivating Dalit consciousness across northern India. Though the Congress remains weak in politically significant Uttar Pradesh, its presence in the INDIA bloc has helped Akhilesh appear as part of a broader anti-BJP coalition, making Dalit (especially non-Jatav) voters more comfortable shifting BJP to SP in the 2024 general elections.
Conversely, the BSP’s renewed attempt to attract OBCs and Muslims is clearly designed to undermine the SP’s strongest base – the Yadav-Muslim alliance. Muslims constitute roughly 20% of Uttar Pradesh’s population, while Yadavs make up around 9%. Their combined support has kept the SP electorally potent since 1993. But Mayawati’s current emphasis on “Bahujan unity” seeks to puncture this social bloc by reviving the pre-2012 formula that once gave her an absolute majority in 2007.
Still, the political environment in 2025 is far more fragmented than it was in 2007. The BJP’s deep organisational presence, the SP’s rejuvenation, and the BSP’s structural decay have altered the dynamics entirely.
“Both SP and BSP are attempting to encroach upon each other’s vote banks,” said a senior political observer, Mishra. The observer added that while the SP’s attempts to woo Dalits seem to be yielding results, the BSP’s outreach among Muslims and OBCs faces greater scepticism due to its organisational fatigue and leadership isolation.
For the BJP, this churn presents both a risk and an opportunity. If Dalits continue shifting toward the SP, the ruling party’s formidable social coalition could erode significantly. However, a politically revived BSP might inadvertently help the BJP by fragmenting the opposition vote. As Mishra noted, “The BJP actually benefits if Mayawati regains some of her lost Dalit support – because that would split the anti-BJP vote between SP and BSP.”
As 2027 draws nearer, the battle between Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati is increasingly shaping into a contest for ownership of the Bahujan narrative. Both leaders are invoking Ambedkar and Kanshi Ram, but their methods reflect divergent political compulsions – Akhilesh’s ambition to transform the SP into a pan-caste movement versus Mayawati’s struggle to resurrect a shrinking party.
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