Speculation is currently rife regarding Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath emerging as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s successor. At a recent event in New Delhi, he was even asked this question directly.
But as long as Modi remains India’s prime minister, it will always be early to pose the question, ‘who after Modi’ or ‘who can be Modi’s successor’.
It will always be premature for this poser because Modi has given no indications as yet that he will step down later this year, although merely six months later he will officially turn 75 on September 17.
Although selectively used, this is the age-limit that has been used by Modi to ‘retire’ leaders who either lost their ‘utility’ or ‘piqued’ him for various reasons – he has never been known for ‘forgiving or forgetting’.
Asking who will take over from Modi is also premature because last year, on completing 23 years in elected public office (he took oath as Gujarat chief minister on October 7, and yes he celebrated that ‘anniversary’ too!) he declared his intention to continue working tirelessly with “more vigour” and not rest until accomplishing the goal of a “developed India”.
Since the goal is unlikely to be reached in six months, it can be safely assumed that Modi will be around and so, there is no vacancy, logically.
Additionally, there is nothing in the BJP’s constitution that mandates retirement after 75.
On the other hand, the question regarding Modi’s replacement is not being asked that early. After all, given his position, should he not be practicing what he preaches, or be true to his word?
Did not he leave out BJP leaders over 75 from his council of ministers in May 2014? A refresher is probably warranted for those from whose minds this nugget of information has slipped out: L.K. Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi, among others, were not inducted by Modi in his council of ministers. Instead, they were named to the role-less and non-existent Margdarshak Mandal.
The question about the leader who would take Modi’s position is not hasty because he has applied the rule-of-75 on numerous occasions – even loyalists vacated office: the then-Gujarat chief minister Anandiben Patel put in her papers months before turning 75.
She was subsequently rehabilitated as Uttar Pradesh governor, primarily because Modi required a loyalist to keep track of Adityanath, soon after his becoming chief minister of the state.
The yogi is at the centre of speculation about the BJP’s next leader essentially because even Modi has had to commend the chief minister for making the “Maha Kumbh of unity” successful.
Consequently, Adityanath has secured the opportunity to flaunt the Uttar Pradesh government’s claim that 65-plus crore people visited Prayagraj even while his regime has remained tight-lipped about the exact number of pilgrims who died in the stampede during the festival.
Importantly, despite congratulating and acclaiming Adityanath, Modi not so obliquely referred to the tragic incident in which at least 30 people died. The prime minister apologised to “Mother Ganga, Mother Yamuna, Mother Saraswati” as well as people – who he said are a form of God to him – for any shortcoming in the services rendered.
In a political ecosystem where cohabitation is a necessity, and also imposed by the fraternity, only occasional and adequately camouflaged barbs can be taken at one another.
It is not that Adityanath too wastes any opportunity. At the India Today Conclave he was asked about the successful conduct of the Maha Kumbh and whether he considered it the greatest achievement of his life.
His response was loaded with suggestions: “Opportunities come in the life of everyone, but some people are successful in securing acclaim while others get scattered, shattered or wasted.”
In 2017, when Modi successfully led the BJP’s electoral charge to storm back to power in Uttar Pradesh, Adityanath was not his choice as chief minister. His reported selection, Manoj Sinha, apparently even packed his essential requirements before the Nagpur-headquartered Big Brother ensured that the Yogi was installed as a countervailing force to Modi.
This was possible because the Project Modi-cult was still in the making and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) had not become the secondary force it had been rendered to until the leadership chose to be assertive last year, tellingly staying away from the Lok Sabha elections campaign in several crucial states and seats.
The divergence between the Modi and Yogi camps has been a recurring story and has been routinely featured in media coverage.
Adityanath is at the centre of speculation about the BJP’s next leader because even Modi has had to commend him for making the Maha Kumbh successful. Photo: X/@myogiadityanath.
In his reply to the question of whether he aspired to make a shift to Delhi (to become prime minister after Modi), Adityanath replied that he “was a Yogi and will remain a Yogi,” but quickly added that as “Mother India’s helper, I have been given the responsibility of Uttar Pradesh, and I am working in that role only. I would like it if, while working, I get a chance to make my way to Gorakhpur. Then, I would be able to take forward my Yogi Dharma.”
To questions about the future positions they aspire for, political leaders are never truthful. Well over a decade ago, I posed a similar question to Modi: Did he aspire to be India’s prime minister?
He dubbed the question as “very loaded” and continued that if “someone [meaning he] says that ‘I will do whatever the party tells me to do’ – then he will get trapped. And if someone says he has no interest, then also the person will get trapped. It is very difficult to give answers to such loaded questions. It is for writers to study and come up with their assessment – that if the party takes such a decision, it will lead to a setback or it will benefit.”
Clearly, Adityanath enjoys moments under the spotlight, just like Modi did prior to 2013. But it must be borne in mind that Yogi is not originally part of the Sangh parivar and is instead a ‘lateral’ entrant from the Gorakhnath Mutt, a Hindu institution of considerable influence in eastern Uttar Pradesh and controlled by the Nath monastic group.
Adityanath became a Lok Sabha MP in 1998 after the Gorakhpur seat was vacated by the then-head of the Mutt, Mahant Avaidyanath, who had initially been with Hindu Mahasabha but joined the BJP after playing a significant role in the Ram temple agitation.
The RSS backed Yogi initially and even in October 2024 reiterated its support for him at a time when ties with Modi were still frayed.
Despite being an ‘outsider’ and no certainty of continued support from the RSS, it should be recalled that he raised a militia organisation in the early 2000s, the Hindu Yuva Vahini, although he was a BJP Lok Sabha MP. Despite it being disbanded formally in 2017, the Vahini can, reportedly, be raised once again.
Although organisational muscle will thereby not be found wanting, Adityanath’s biggest hurdle to taking charge of the BJP is the likely lack of support outside the hardline Hindutva constituency.
Also read: After the Maha Kumbh, Adityanath Has the Upper Hand in the Post-Modi Succession Game
In 2014, Modi secured support beyond the confines of this section and a significant and crucial part of the BJP’s vote share of 31.34% came from non-supporters of Hindutva. He was also successful in stitching several pre-poll alliances and their representatives were included in the government.
Adityanath’s ability to attract sections beyond those already committed to aggressive Hindutva thoughts and also secure the support of non-BJP and non-Congress parties is untested.
Additionally, it has to be kept in mind that even in 2014, Modi secured the support of a major section of Indian corporate and industry representatives. Since 2017, Yogi has had limited interaction with these groups – mainly at investment summits and with those companies that have invested in the state. Securing their confidence and support in the run-up to polls will again be crucial.
There is no denying that Adityanath is fairly charismatic and popular. But here again, Modi has wider acceptability, even among sections of Muslims (also Christians), albeit in marginal numbers.
However, some in the RSS have been veering around to the opinion that the idea of Hindutva has crossed the threshold level and that the role of the individual leader is not as crucial as in 2014 or 2019.
The BJP’s underperformance in 2024 underscored the power of the sangathan, which was absent. According to this opinion, other parties and corporate groups would be open to working with the BJP even if it is led by other leaders, although it is too early to decide who has the best chances.
There is no doubt, however, that the question of Modi’s successor will hereon continue rearing its head. Whether Adityanath or other leaders, including some former challengers to Modi, or his current loyalists or even rank outsiders, would be best suited as a replacement will continue being weighed, and more intensely as 2029 approaches.
Modi would certainly be aware of this low-intensity simmering in the Sangh parivar pot and it would be naive to expect him to be non-reactive.
With the cauldron on the other side – the opposition’s – also constantly simmering, tracking the political churn on a daily basis will be necessary as well as challenging.
Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay is a journalist and writer. His last book was The Demolition, The Verdict, And The Temple: The Definite Book on the Ram Mandir Project. He also wrote Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times.
