Kashmir's Turnout Figures in These Polls Tell Us that Kashmiris Want to Be Heard

Despite the small number of parliamentary seats, the Lok Sabha election in Jammu and Kashmir had its own political significance, mainly because this was first major political event to take place there after the reading down of the special constitutional status of the state and its reorganisation in August 2019.

In the situation of continued non-political governance (the last elected government collapsed in 2018) there have not been many opportunities for political parties to mobilise their voters and for the common people to participate. Parliamentary elections therefore were lapped up by the political parties and voters alike. This was more particularly true of the Kashmir valley which had been politically silent during the last few years. While there has been limited unrest, there has also been no political response of any other kind. Since 2019, it is the Jammu region that has become much more vocal politically. 

While one can attribute much of the political silence in Kashmir to the near total absence of separatist organisations and politics, disruption in mainstream politics has also impacted political responses in Kashmir. 

Disruptions

One major disruption that traditional parties like the National Congress and People’s Democratic Party faced in Kashmir after August 2019 was the loss of their political narrative which till then was linked with Article 370. With this Article being revamped and hollowed out, the leaders of these parties were suddenly left perplexed, not knowing how to respond to the new realities and what to offer to people. Kashmiri identity and its preservation through Article 370 was not only the core of the mainstream politics but also the major point of distinction between separatist and mainstream churning too.  

Facing the most crucial existential crisis in the wake of the revocation of the special constitutional status of J&K, the mainstream parties were also exposed to other pressures. Apart from being demonised as ‘corrupt’, ‘dynastic’ and ‘irrelevant’, these parties also faced the onslaught of cross-party movement. The process started with the emergence of Apni Party (AP)  which was formed in early 2020 by Altaf Bukhari (a prominent Kashmiri leader who was earlier finance minister in PDP government) with the help of 40 breakaway politicians mostly from PDP but also from NC and Congress. PDP thereafter was battered as it lost most of its senior – and even some founding – members not only to this party but also to People’s Conference (PC). Many of those who left the party had held ministerial positions or were its former MLAs. As reported, of the 28 legislators elected on PDP tickets in 2014, 20 left it in the post-2019 period. 

While the NC was not as severely impacted as the PDP, it still faced uncertainty as many of its members were also joined the AP or the PC. The party, in fact, faced a major blow in Jammu region as its provincial president and another senior leader left it to join the BJP. 

These disruptions impacted the flow of normal politics but also compelled the parties to renegotiate their political space. The churning that took place within mainstream politics after 2019 made the situation a bit fuzzy – not only with the NC and PDP facing an existential crisis, but also with the two BJP-friendly parties – AP and PC claiming popular support in the post-2019 reality. These parties sought to project the NC and PDP as having lost political ground in Kashmir. 

Parliamentary elections, in this situation, became a mega exercise for testing the political ground of all the major political parties – not only the NC and PDP who were facing adverse political campaigns, but also for the newly assertive AP and PC. In the absence of any other political or electoral process available since 2019 (last legislative assembly election had taken place here in 2014), the Lok Sabha election generated much enthusiasm. There was an expectation that an assembly election would follow the parliamentary polls too. With the Supreme Court having given September as the deadline for holding assembly elections (and positive commitments were later made by the prime minister and home minister), the political parties and their cadres were substantially motivated. 

The parliamentary election, therefore, became a very high stake one for all four competing parties discussed above. Each of these parties entered the electoral arena with high profile candidates and combative electoral strategies. The idea of personally taking on the fight on behalf of their parties by Omar Abdullah of NC, Mehbooba Mufti of PDP, and Sajjad Lone of PC was reflective of the level of competitiveness and high stakes that each of these parties had in the election. For each of the three Valley constituencies – Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag, the competition was very intense. In Srinagar, there was competition mainly between Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi of NC and Waheed ur Rehman Para of PDP. Both these candidates were young and had the reputation of being firebrand leaders. In Baramulla, initially, it was a direct fight between Omar Abdullah and Sajjad Lone but later Engineer Rashid, former MLA who is at present incarcerated under UAPA on the charges of terror funding, joined the fray. In Anantnag, Mehbooba Mufti was facing senior NC veteran, Mian Altaf and AP representative Zafar Iqbal Manhas. 

Alliance or the lack of it 

The NC and PDP being the core members of INDIA bloc, there was an expectation that these parties will give a combined fight against BJP. However, both these parties decided to contest individually and compete against each other. 

In the process of renegotiating its political space, the NC has been seeking to assert its dominance in Kashmir’s politics. After the local District Development Council election in 2020 which it fought along with PDP and other Kashmir-based parties including the PC under the banner of the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, it took the decision to go alone. NC had emerged as the largest winning party in that election and began taking a more deliberate position. Its distance from the PAGD which was an alliance created by all Kashmir-based mainstream parties in the wake of the Article 370 move, was indicative of its direction of politics. Rather than sharing political space with other parties, more particularly with its traditional rival, the PDP, which was politically jolted in recent years, it wanted to assert itself.

It appears to have used the same logic in case of the INDIA bloc. Omar Abdullah took the position that NC had claim over all three Valley seats and was ready to accommodate other partners of the INDIA bloc in the rest of the three seats of the erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir state – two seats of Jammu and one of Ladakh. Ultimately on these three seats, NC not only supported the candidature of Congress party but also campaigned for the contestants of these parties.

PDP, having lost its political strength due to the exodus of large number of its leaders, was not very keen to contest the elections on its own. It would have been more comfortable contesting as part of the PAGD and INDIA blocs. However, with NC taking an aggressive posture and claiming all the three constituencies of the Valley, it had no choice but to contest on all the seats on its own. Not contesting any seat in the valley would have proved disastrous for this party. Even with thin chances of winning, it needed to register its presence in the game, more so in the context of the coming assembly election. 

While an alliance between the NC and PDP could not work out, another alliance that could successfully work out was between the PC and the AP. Both these parties were laying claim on the political space of Kashmir traditionally occupied by NC and PDP. With PDP weakened, both these parties were targeting the NC, not only declaring it irrelevant but also accountable for militancy and violence.

However, rather than fighting each other, these parties decided to go together in their fight against NC and PDP. So while AP supported Sajjad Lone in Baramulla, in its fight against Omar Abdullah, Sajjad’s PC supported AP in the other two valley constituencies, particularly in Anatnag-Rajouri constituency where Iqbal Manhas of this party was facing Mehbooba Mufti and NC’s Mian Altaf.

This alliance clearly had the support of the BJP which did not field any contestants in any of the three constituencies of the Valley, acknowledging lack of popular support there. It supported the PC-AP alliance. In its strategy of wiping out the traditional parties like NC and PDP, BJP had asked its supporters to back any non-NC and non-PDP candidate. 

High voter turnout

It is in this background of competition in each of the three Valley constituencies that political mobilisation intensified, later to be reflected in a high voter turnout.  

As the history of parliamentary elections in Kashmir reveals, voter turnout generally remains quite low. This has been the trend since the onset of militancy. The story of the 1989 parliamentary election is very well known. There was almost a total boycott of election with mere 5% voter turnout in two constituencies and an uncontested return for the third one. With the exception of the 1996 election, which was quite controversial, people in Kashmir have not come forward to cast their votes during any elections in large numbers.

But this time the situation was different. 

The trend for a higher voter turnout this time could be seen when Srinagar constituency went to the polls. Here, 38% voter turnout was recorded. This was much higher as compared to the 14.43% voter turnout in 2019. The turnout was 25.86% in 2014, 25.55% in 2009, 18.57% in 2004, 11.93% in 1999.

The trend for higher voter turnout continued in Baramulla which recorded 59%. In 2019, it was 34.6%. It was 39.24% in 2014, 41% in 2009, 35.65% in 2004, 27.79% in 1999.

The most interesting was the voter turnout of 51.35% in Anantnag which has a reputation of boycotting the parliamentary polls. In 2019, this constituency had recorded only 8.98% voter turnout. The figures were 28.84% in 2014, 27.10% in 2009, 15.04% in 2004 and 14.32% in 1999.

The intensified competition among parties and aggressive mobilisation can explain the higher voter turnout in this election. With almost no political space available in Kashmir ever since the Article 370 move, the election became an important political moment when people could make their political presence felt. The political process for them was crucial – not as much for forming a government at the national level as for electing a representative of their choice and making a political statement through that choice.

And as the result showed, they made a number of statements in the process.

The high voter turnout in itself was a political statement that Kashmiris have not been muted and that they are politically alert. 

The victory of NC on two seats of the valley and the personal defeat of Omar Abdullah in the third seat are further indication of the ground reality. NC continues to be a popular force and has relevance in Kashmir’s politics. Dispelling doubts, NC has established its continued political hold in Kashmir. In Srinagar, its candidate registered a clear victory by polling 355,294 votes (52%). The PDP candidate has trailed with 1,67,666 votes (24.95%), The AP candidate has been placed at a third position with 65,954 votes (9.77%).

In Anantnag, NC’s Mian Altaf Ahmad has got a massive victory with 5,21,836 votes (50.85%). PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti who trailed him, could get 2,40,042 votes (23.39%). AP’s Zafar Iqbal Manhas could get only 1,42,195 votes (13.86%). Anantnag is particularly important for NC not only because of intense competition but also because of the newly defined character of the constituency.

After being re-carved in the recent delimitation exercise, Anantnag lost its ‘all-Kashmir’ character. Apart from having 11 assembly segments from Kashmir Valley, it now includes seven assembly segments from Poonch and Rajouri districts of Jammu region. Thus, apart from Kashmiris, the constituency represents two other ethnic identities – Gujjars and Paharis – on whom the BJP has made substantial political investment in last few years. While Gujjars were granted political reservation in the legislative assembly, the Paharis were granted Scheduled Tribe status. The BJP, that had significant influence on the Jammu side of this constituency, had clearly asked its supporters to cast their votes to non-NC and non-PDP candidates. However, AP party not perform well in this constituency either. 

Also read: How the BJP Is Banking on Gujjar-Pahari Politics to Enter the Muslim Belt in Jammu

Despite winning these two parliamentary constituencies, the NC could not perform well in the third, Baramulla. Here Omar Abdullah faced a severe defeat in the hands of independent candidate Abdul Rashid Sheikh, popularly known as Engineer Rashid. Polling 4,69,574 votes (45.7%), Engineer Rashid went ahead of Omar Abdullah who polled 2,66,301 votes (25.95%). Sajjad Lone could poll only 1,71,582 votes (16.76%). With Engineer Rashid being in jail for last five years and his campaign being run by two of his young sons, there was lot of sympathy, especially among the youth and women. Rashid became a symbol of suffering of youth similarly incarcerated in jails or facing other kinds of pressures. Projected as an uncompromising person, Rashid was seen to be representing the ground sentiments of Kashmiris. It was this sympathy wave for which Omar Abdullah was no match. 

In the victory of Engineer Rashid was another statement that was made by Kashmiris – that despite peace on the surface, there is a wave of resentment in Kashmir, especially among the youth and that needs to be addressed. 

Lastly, the most important statement that was made by Kashmiris in this election is related to the significance of the democratic space in Kashmir. Kashmiris, it needs to be noted, have always responded to genuine democratic politics. Even when the history of Kashmir’s mainstream politics is replete with various moments of erosion of democratic space, there have been some historical moments when there has been some opening for democratic politics. Kashmiri masses have enthusiastically responded to these.

The 1977 and 1983 assembly elections were such moments. Both these elections were known for their competitiveness and fairness. It was the disillusionment with democratic politics in the post-1984 phase which was symbolised by the rigged assembly election in 1987 that steered Kashmiris towards separatism. More recently, Kashmiris responded very positively to the democratic politics in 2002-2018 period. Even when separatist politics was still kicking and alive, democratic politics had started expanding. It was thanks to such politics that even when the 2008 assembly election was preceded by massive separatist upsurge, Kashmiris participated in the elections with enthusiasm. The same was true of the 2011 panchayat election which was preceded by another massive separatist upsurge in 2010. The voter turnout in this election was around 80%. It was this faith in democratic process that led Kashmiris to participate in the 2014 assembly election.

The message that one gets from the participation of Kashmiris this time is very clear – that their faith in the democratic process remains intact. In a situation where there has been no other way of having their political voice heard, they have reiterated the need for opening up democratic spaces in Kashmir. 

Rekha Chowdhary was formerly a professor of Political Science at the University of Jammu. She can be reached at rekchowdhary@gmail.com.

Read all of The Wire’s reporting on and analysis of the 2024 election results here.