India has a tenuous and nebulous relationship with the size of its population. Sometimes the country is proud of its population size. Take for example the terms used when speaking positively about it — ‘largest democracy’, ‘world record voter turnout’, ‘demographic dividend’ — which Modi called India’s strength. Indians happily and proudly use population size as a bait to attract global manufacturers both in terms of a consumer base and as a workforce.
However, population size is also used as a bogey and an excuse. The bogey being the population of Muslims is increasing and therefore Hindus and India are under threat. The excuse is socio-economic development is a challenge because of the magnitude of population. Shamika Ravi, a member of the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) in a May 2024 working paper titled ‘Share of Religious Minorities; A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015),’ wrote the following: “Shifting demographic trends are aggravating economic disparity within and between countries, straining governance and fuelling friction between states and people.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his 2019 Independence Day speech said, “I would like to highlight the issue of population explosion in our country from the aegis of the Red Fort today. This rapidly increasing population poses various new challenges for us and our future generation.”
India’s large population is that deficiency that causes corruption, failure of law and order, minimal social services, abysmal oversight and accountability, low quality of education. The list goes on of the debilitating consequences of population size.
So, the question is does the size of India’s population matter when it comes to delivering social good be they education, health services or in governing the country?
If size were indeed an issue, then small states like Goa with populations of a few hundred thousand would be paradise. However, as per an International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute for Human Development (IHD) report, Goa had an unemployment rate of 10%, three times the national average. Law and order in Manipur is abysmal.
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) index is a ‘universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure that by 2030 all people enjoy peace and prosperity.’ To localise these goals, the Niti Aayog developed the SDG India Index. Reading the SDG India Index one would naturally conclude that size is inconsequential. Odisha (population 4,19,50,951) with a score of 66 and Assam (population 3,11,69,272) with a score of 65 are in the same league as Uttar Pradesh (population 19,98,12341) 67. Goa (population 14,58,545) scores 77 which is lower than the 78 that Tamil Nadu (population 7,21,47,030) scored.
Many give the example of China to argue for an autocratic leader for India given its population size. However, this argument falls flat as smaller and less-populated autocratic countries have lower and higher Human Development Index (HDI) when compared to China. Could it be that population size is a non-issue and the problem lies elsewhere? Could the issue be multi-faceted and include injudicious allocation of resources, lack of accountability and punishment, absence of cultivating and nurturing civic sense and implementation of other misguided priorities?
A prime example of this is the Vande Bharat Express. The government is spending money on these semi-high-speed trains which are unable to run at their optimum speed because of lack of infrastructure. Tickets on this train range from Rs 1,052 to Rs 2,299. Parallelly, older trains and other routes are being ignored which have led to umpteen videos of desperate passengers entering compartments above their ticket cost. Simultaneously, 2024 has seen seven rail accidents while only 3% of the national rail network has come under the Kavach Automatic Train Protection System. This system was approved in 2019 and officially adopted in 2020. We have a situation where the condition of old trains is being ignored and fancy new trains with expensive tickets are being introduced on ill-equipped infrastructure. The price is being paid by millions who use regular trains. Does population size have anything to do with these choices made by the Ministry of Railways?
Also read: Fact Check: Old Data, New Spin in PM-EAC Report on India’s Population
Then there is the issue of education. Today, the government is concentrating on building national pride by rejigging this land’s history. Does increase in national pride translate into responsible, and civic minded, citizenry? What’s the point of passengers and pillion riders waving the tricolour on Independence Day and Republic Day when their vehicle hurtles down the wrong-side of the road? Has national pride converted into protecting and respecting women and minorities? Frankly, population size has nothing to do with citizens knowing their individual, civic and constitutional responsibilities.
The claim that population size impacts law and order and the judicial process has more to do with people unwilling to abide by laws, police who are short staffed and therefore unable and possibly unwilling to do their work, and lower judiciary, who besides being short of judges, are probably unwilling and unable to decide a case. That of the 5,73,220 Indian citizens residing in prisons, 4,34,302 or 75.08% are undertrials is not a population issue but a failure of the government and the judiciary.
Blaming the population also covers for the lack of professionalism in the practise of law. It boggles the mind to read that as on September 21, 2024 there are 41,96,730 cases that are pending in the district courts and are over ten years old and 60,17,451 cases in the high courts of India of which 4,40,602 criminal and 9,47,031 civil cases are over 10 years old. In district courts there are 1,66,19,307 cases between zero-one year-old and 77,16,359 cases between five-ten years and that ‘non availability of counsel’ is the major reason for more than fifty lakh pending criminal cases.
It is ironic that currently there is a 2018 case pending in the Supreme Court (Suo Motu WP (C) 2/2018; CA 1867/2006) on the issue of judicial vacancies.
All problems start small, and when not immediately dealt with get a life of their own. The lackadaisical training of vehicle users, and insufficient and ill-equipped road infrastructure leads to the chaos on Indian roads. Insurmountable problems are dismantlable into smaller parts. For example, as on September 21, 2024, there are 4,51,98,929 cases in the Indian judicial system. There are more than 1,19,13089 civil and criminal cases that are more than five years old.
The 34,235,083 criminal cases floating in Indian judicial purgatory can be immediately reduced if undertrials are released, of course dependent on time spent and severity of crime. Within this there are 5,41,802 criminal cases delayed because ‘parties not interested – infructuous litigation’ and 50,81,204 cases pending because ‘counsel not available’ ’as per the national judicial data grid. The civil cases present similar statistics and reasons.
Ultimately, building grandiose castles on weak foundations and ignoring the plight of the marginalised has nothing to do with population size.
The government’s goal of Viksit Bharat is being hampered by its jugaad of short term gloss and superficiality. Probably one consequence of this approach is the demographic dividend being squeezed out. The Bharatiya Janata Party government in Maharashtra has put in place a programme to train 10,000 youth for jobs in Germany, and thousands of youth are applying for jobs in Israel.
Population is the bricks that build India, while provision of and access to social services (including health and education), social stability, and job creation are the constituents of the mortar that bind the bricks together. The government needs to focus on these to build an equitable country for all.
Samir Nazareth is the author of the travelogue, 1400 Bananas, 76 Towns & 1 Million People. He tweets at @samirwrites.
