The national debate for or against National Register of Citizens (NRC) and Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) rages on. From tea stalls to shopping malls, from offices to social network, from primetime television to the protests on the street – the ‘discussion’ is everywhere. At the core of this debate is the fast-held belief that millions of immigrants from neighbouring Bangladesh have illegally entered West Bengal, Assam and Tripura, radically altering the state demographics. A fraction of Indian society passionately believes this is indeed the case and blame the ‘illegal immigrants pampered for vote-bank politics’ for several socio-economic problems of India and these states specifically. Another major set of Indians – the ones who are not so strongly against people of other religions and countries – also believe that substantial immigration has taken place. Although this is a post-truth era dominated by ‘alternative facts’, it is desirable that people from all sides of the political spectrum have a look at hard evidence.
Immigration from Bangladesh in recent years
The layman’s knowledge about ‘millions of illegal immigrants’ is mostly based on anecdotal evidence and hearsay like ‘it is known..’, ‘that vegetable vendor is from…’ and ‘in the border areas…’. Beliefs and opinions, especially when not substantiated by facts, are hard to change. However, an objective way to understand the subject is to do a ‘testing of hypothesis’ i.e. you make a hypothesis and then, based on data collection and analysis, you conclude whether the hypothesis is correct or not.
So, in the case of West Bengal, the hypothesis is: If there has been a massive immigration of Bangladeshis (Muslims/Hindus) into the state in recent decades (and they were allotted ration cards, voter cards), that should skyrocket the state’s population number and substantially deviate its trend from the rest of the country. Do the numbers present in the census and surveys like NFHS agree with this?
If we look at the census data of 1981, 1991, 2001, and 2011 (graph 1 and table 1), the immediate conclusions are: the growth rate of WB’s population has distinctly been less than the national average since the 1990s; this decrease is true not only for the whole population, but also for both Hindu and Muslim communities of over the past 2-3 census (Graph 1).
The decadal growth rates for WB’s Hindus has been 21.1% in (1981-91); 14.2% in (1991-2001); and 10.8 % in (2001-2011). The corresponding values for WB’s Muslims are 36.9% in (1981-91); 25.9% in (1991-2001); and 21.8 % in (2001-2011).
Graph 1 Population growth rates for 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 in India and WB
(Source: 1991, 2001, and 2011 Census; The table on the right showing the numerical values.)
In other words, the two major religious communities of WB are contributing less to the population of India compared to several other states, at least since 1991 for Hindus and since 2001 for Muslims. The state’s growth rate is less than the national average. This punctures the myth that West Bengal is bursting with a much larger-than-expected population because of Bangladeshi immigrants.
WB’s border districts and ‘illegal immigrants’
It could be argued that a closer look into the border-districts of WB will show big changes in Hindu-Muslim demographics, as that is where the immigrants have entered. However, no such trend is visible from the census data of these districts. In concurrence with the lucid explanations by professors Subhanil Chaudhury and Saswata Ghosh, the population numbers clearly show that:
i) the 2001-2011 growth rates of almost all districts of WB has decreased compared to the previous decade (Graph 2),
ii) this holds true for Hindus and Muslims (Graphs 3A, 3B).
iii) there is no consistent trend in the border districts that can be explained by massive immigration.
Graph 2: Population growth rates for 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 in districts of WB
(Source:1991, 2001, and 2011 census; Dinajpur was divided into two separate districts, Uttar and Dakshin, in 1992 and so was Midnapore into East and West in 2002. Hence, i) the data of whole Dinajpur was plotted for both Uttar and Dakshin at 1991-2001, and ii) the data of whole Midnapore was plotted for both East and West at 1991-2001 and 2001-2011.)
Graphs 3: Population growth rates for Hindus (A) and Muslims (B) for 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 in districts of WB
(Source: same as in Graph 2)
The growth rate is higher than the state average in three districts which have a significant border with Bangladesh (North Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad). But this is less than the state-average in four other border districts (South Dinajpur, Nadia, Cooch Behar, and North 24 Parganas). Among the ‘inward’ districts, Purulia, Medinipur and Birbhum have higher than average growth rates while Hooghly and Bardhaman have a slower population growth rate.
The striking thing is that the two communities parallel each other: Wherever the rate of growth of Hindus is high, it is high for Muslims; wherever it is less for Hindus, it is less for Muslims (table 2). In other words, there is no high Hindu growth rate, no high Muslim growth rate and no high-along-the-border growth rate. The census – the major data source available for such studies – just does not show any massive immigration into West Bengal.
Table 2:Growth rates of Hindus and Muslims parallel each other in districts of WB.
(Source: based on an article by S. Chaudhury and S. Ghosh, Anandabazar Patrika, Sept 10, 2015; The values were obtained by subtracting the state average of the community from the value for the district. WB state average (2011-2001) for Hindus is 10.81% and for Muslims is 21.81%.)
What drives the steady decrease of population growth rates for WB?
Briefly, it is increased levels of literacy, especially female literacy and (consequent) women empowerment. These are factors that have been globally recognized as prime drivers that cause a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR, number of children a woman bears) and this state is no exception. The TFR for WB(1.7/1.8 per children per woman) is among the lowest in the country and this applies to both the communities. Graph 4A compares TFR for the state’s Hindus and Muslims with the corresponding scenario from Kerala, one of the leading states in this regard and UP, one of the lagging states.
Furthermore, demographers (Ghosh, 2018; Haq and Patil, 2016) have noted that the gap between Hindu and Muslim fertility rates has reduced by more than one child (or very close to that) for states like WB, Assam and Kerala. In the case of WB, Hindus have reached replacement levels (