November, in some ways, is the month for children. November 14 is celebrated as children’s day in India, marking the birth anniversary of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru and November 20 is the International or World Children’s Day. It is also the date on which the UN General Assembly adopted the Convention on the Rights of the Child (UN-CRC) in 1989. UNICEF also releases its flagship report on the State of World’s Children (SoWC) during this month. This year’s SoWC 2024 report is devoted to the world in which children will live in 2050 and identifies three ‘megatrends’ that are shaping their futures. All three are particularly relevant for India and call for urgent priority to children and their rights.
2050: A third of the world’s children will live in four countries
The first is to do with the demographic transition. While the world, including India, is ageing the pace and stage varies significantly across different parts of the world. Therefore, even though the share of children in the population of most developing countries is reducing, a much larger percentage of children in the world are expected to be concentrated in these regions of Africa and South Asia. The report estimates that by the 2050s more than a third of the world’s children will live in just four countries – India, China, Nigeria and Pakistan. India alone is expected to account for almost 15% of the global child population. Developing countries, including India, face the challenge of catering to an increasing elderly population while also making up for the deficits during childhood and youth so that their potential can be realised. The report points to the changes that come with this demographic transition in the form of smaller family sizes and fewer or no siblings. Investments in children will have to continue while newer systems of support and care for the elderly are put in place.
Climate crisis
The second big trend that is expected to affect children’s lives disproportionately is the climate and environment crisis. Health and well-being is affected in many ways. Rising average temperatures have led to an increase in mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases like malaria, dengue, zika virus etc. Access to clean and safe drinking water is increasingly becoming a challenge. Air pollution has been shown to be especially harmful for children. The last we are only too familiar with currently, especially in Delhi and other cities in northern India. As can be seen in the city of Delhi, air pollution not only has health impacts, but also is affecting children’s education and play which can have lasting effects on their learning, mental health and development.
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The impact of climate risks is also highly unequal. Children from marginalised economic and social backgrounds are likely to be more affected. Displacement due to climate and environmental risks is also increasing. UNICEF has called the climate crisis a ‘child rights crisis’ with its Children’s Climate Risk Index (CCRI) showing that 1 billion children are at ‘extremely high risk’ of the impacts of climate change (i.e. half of all children). Not only are children more vulnerable but with the planet becoming a riskier place to live, it is their futures that are impacted for the worse. Once again it is children in the developing world who are relatively more exposed to climate hazards. India ranks 26 out of 163 countries on the basis of its CCRI, with a higher rank indicating greater risk, and falls in the ‘extremely high risk’ category which has 33 countries. It is of course the case that countries at the risk are also, mostly, the lowest contributors to the causes of climate change. Yet, developed countries have not come forward to take responsibility and contribute a fair share towards climate finance (as seen in the outcome of the recent COP29 in Baku). While fighting the international battle for a just distribution of resources towards climate change mitigation and adaptation, governments in the higher risk countries of the Global South cannot ignore these risks for children in their development planning.
Digital divide
The third and final trend that the SOWC report talks about is digitisation. While predicting that the role of digital technologies will only continue to increase, the report also highlights the digital divide that currently exists between the advanced countries and low-income countries. This digital divide will only contribute to perpetuating inequalities further. At the same time, concerns related to digital spaces exposing children to wide risks and harms are also raised. While frontier technologies and AI can provide great opportunities for children, they come with challenges and also contribute to the perpetuation of inequalities. Here too, the role of government policy and public investment becomes important. All of these are most relevant for India as well.
From the Indian perspective, we also need to acknowledge the inequalities that exist within the country. Caste, class, geography and gender determine to a large extent the kind of basic education, health, nutrition and care that a young child can expect to get in India. With weakening public services especially in education and health, the divide is only increasing. A number of these issues related to child development require much more investment in India.
A call for action
While most children are now in school, completion rates still have a great scope for improvement and the learning outcomes are usually poor across surveys. The quality of education and infrastructure in schools varies hugely between government schools and high fee-paying private schools. Early childhood, a period that is considered to be the most important in laying the foundation for mental and physical well-being during adulthood, remains neglected. The variation in quality of pre-schools that young children have in the country is vast, with many not getting any preschool education. According to the UNICEF report, only 48% of the children in the three- to five-year-old age group in India attend preschool. So, the inequality is perpetuated right from the beginning.
What is of great concern is that despite the advances being made in understanding child development and the importance of public investment towards children, our investments in children have not only been suboptimal always but are also reducing. The ‘Budget for Children’ is at its lowest in a decade at 2.3% of total Union budget in 2024-25 compared to 3.3% in 2015-16. The process of consultations for Budget 2025 has begun. Children neither have a vote nor a voice in these spaces. It is upon everybody else to speak for them.
Dipa Sinha is a development economist.
