In Numbers: Has Security in J&K Improved Since Modi Government's Article 370 Move in 2019?
Pavan Korada
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The attack at Pahalgam on April 22 killed at least 26 civilians in Jammu and Kashmir.
The tragedy compels a question: Has security truly improved since August 5, 2019, when Article 370 was read down?
The Union government of Narendra Modi has had direct control over the security of Kashmir since August 2019. It retains full and exclusive control over law and order despite J&K having an elected state government,
A report by The Wire earlier this month had recorded how the Modi government had kept chief minister Omar Abdullah out of a high-level meeting in Srinagar on April 8 at which Union home minister Amit Shah reviewed the preparedness of security forces and intelligence agencies in Jammu and Kashmir.
The Union government has also been frequent in its claim of success. Citing its "policy of zero tolerance," the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) pointed to progress in a Lok Sabha reply last July. Comparing 2023 figures to the violent year of 2018, the MHA highlighted drops in terrorist incidents (228 to 46), civilian deaths (55 to 14), and Security Force (SF) deaths (91 to 30) as proof of its strategy.
But while these benchmarks show improvement from that peak, yearly data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) shows a more complex picture. Fluctuations challenge claims of steady progress since the Article 370 move.
Consider SATP’s overall count of terrorism-related incidents. After dropping from 597 in 2018 to 369 in 2019, incidents rose after the reading down of Article 370. They were to 415 in 2020 and peaked at 460 in 2021. A decline began then: 457 in 2022, 267 in 2023, and 210 in 2024. While the trend since 2021 is positive, the initial post-reading down spike contradicts claims of immediate, sustained improvement. The 56 incidents SATP recorded by April 19, 2025, suggest activity continues.
Civilian safety, perhaps the most critical measure, shows a more troubling trend. The low number of civilian deaths in 2023 (14 as per the MHA, 12 as per the SATP) was a drop from 42 in 2019, 33 in 2020, 36 in 2021, and 30 in 2022. But this gain proved fragile.
SATP data shows civilian deaths surged again to 31 in 2024, reversing the previous year's improvement. Yesterday’s massacre added 26 lives to the one SATP recorded by April 19 this year, bringing the early 2025 civilian toll to at least 27.
When it comes to the lives of security forces, trends fluctuate. SATP data shows security forces' deaths generally declined from 78 in 2019 to 56 in 2020, 45 in 2021, and 30 in 2022. While SATP recorded a slight rise to 33 in 2023 (MHA reported 30), the downward trend resumed with 26 deaths in 2024. The eight SF deaths recorded by April 19 this year help continue this lower trend compared to the years immediately following the Article 370 move.
This data reveals uneven progress and persistent volatility. While the government can accurately point to improvements compared to the 2018 peak – particularly fewer security force deaths and eventually fewer incidents after the post-2019 spike – the claim of consistent, comprehensive improvement is hard to sustain.
The reversal of gains in civilian safety in 2024, worsened by yesterday's attack, underscores a grim reality: the threat remains potent and adaptable (with groups like the post-370 Resistance Front now active), and civilians continue to pay the highest price. Six years on, true stability and security in Jammu and Kashmir remain elusive goals, demanding scrutiny beyond selective official benchmarks.
This article went live on April twenty-third, two thousand twenty five, at fifteen minutes past three in the afternoon.The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.