Asim Munir's Elevation to Field Marshal Likely to Disturb Military Norms, Succession Dynamics

Chandigarh: The formal elevation on Tuesday (May 20) of Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, to the rank of field marshal, is likely to create structural anomalies within the Pakistan army and spark simmering discontent amongst sections of its senior leadership.

A cross-section of security analysts and Pakistan watchers believe that General Munir’s ‘upgrade’ to the five-star, lifetime rank of field marshal will not only undermine the military’s institutional norms, but also distort succession dynamics, entrench praetorianism and alienate ambitious senior officers, by effectively blocking their upward mobility.

They also anticipate that the field marshal will appoint a trusted four-star deputy, in the rank of general, to manage the army’s daily affairs, while he exercises overarching authority – including influence over the air force and navy – further consolidating his personal power.

Senior analysts believe that the prospective deputy’s post is likely to be filled by Lieutenant General Muhammad Asim Malik, the director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISID) and concurrently Pakistan’s national security adviser (NSA).

This unprecedented dual responsibility, conferred upon Malik by Munir recently, signals the field marshal’s inclination to further centralise national security decision-making amid ongoing tensions with India, and handle precarious internal instability and insurgencies, more brutally.

Munir is well known in Pakistani military circles to be closely aligned with General Malik, a fellow Punjabi. His rapid career progression – from adjutant general to ISI chief and NSA – reflected the field marshal’s inviolable trust in him, and both are believed to share a common strategic worldview on civil-military relations, India, Afghanistan, domestic counterterrorism and on ‘managing’ internal political narratives, by ruthlessly perpetuating military supremacy.

The two also harbour a deep hostility towards former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, looking upon them as a destabilising force that crossed red lines by openly challenging the military’s political dominance, naming senior generals in alleged assassination plots and orchestrating the May 9, 2023 violence across the country.

On that day, following Khan’s arrest by paramilitary Rangers at Islamabad’s high court, PTI cadres launched coordinated attacks on military installations and symbols of army power.

Rioters stormed and looted the iconic Jinnah House – the Lahore Corps Commander’s residence – breached the army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi and defaced monuments to fallen soldiers – all places and motifs that had remained sacrosanct even during previous civil-military conflicts.

These unprecedented acts triggered a severe military crackdown and May 9 is now regarded by the Pakistan army as a watershed moment that justified the political and legal dismantling of the PTI, while reinforcing the need for tighter central control under army command.

Hence, Malik’s assessment of Khan as a threat to institutional stability and an obstacle to the military’s goal of ‘controlled democracy’, mirror Munir’s thinking and will doubtlessly be a factor in Malik’s being shortlisted as his deputy to oversee the army’s functioning.

And though analysts believe Munir is unlikely to face any ‘serious’ challenge to his promotion  immediately, they also maintain that it will, to some extent, adversely impact senior officers’ career timelines and retirement structures.

Alongside, it will also propagate resentment amongst the crop of 11 senior Corps Commanders who will now consider their own career prospects blocked.

It’s quite possible that to some extent, the Pakistan army’s strictly managed and predictable succession model – designed to preserve institutional stability – could be somewhat upended, leading to factionalism amongst a small section of the senior brass.

If so, this could manifest itself in several ways.

Some three-star officers could quietly resist or slow-roll Munir’s directives, especially if they feel sidelined or were ideologically opposed to the field marshal’s consolidation of power.

Conversely, however, many senior officers are expected to fall in line with Munir, banking on future rewards under the field marshal’s shadow.

Furthermore, a field marshal operating in Pakistan, above the rank of a traditional chief of army staff, nearly six decades after Ayub Khan, also suggested deeper military penetration into civilian decision-making – especially in foreign policy, internal security and media control.

Therefore, Pakistan’s civilian leadership, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)-led government – or any future elected government for that matter – could be further subordinated, with Munir effectively becoming the exclusive national decision-maker in all spheres.

Even the judiciary, Election Commission and numerous other Pakistani institutions, already operating under military control, would face even greater oversight and manipulation.

Munir’s hawkish stance on India is well known and his elevation could harden Pakistan’s military posture towards his larger nuclear-armed neighbour, as well as against Afghanistan.

His overarching authority, however, will appeal to Beijing’s preference for continuity and centralised military control over Pakistan in enhancing its security coordination over the China-Pakistan-Economic Corridor.

But above all, a cross-section of analysts in Delhi were concerned over Munir’s stand on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

Earlier this month, amid heightened hostilities with India just before the launch of Operation Sindoor, he is believed to have summoned an ‘extraordinary’ Corps Commanders Conference, which included Lieutenant General Yusuf Jamal, head of the Strategic Plans Division, which oversees the country’s strategic nuclear arsenal.

This May 3 meet, reported by Pakistani newspapers, was considered a ‘rare occurrence’, underscoring the gravity of the situation. At this conclave Munir is believed to affirmed “complete confidence in the operational readiness, deterrence posture and morale” of Pakistan's strategic forces, signalling a readiness to respond decisively to any aggression, the Dawn newspaper reported.

The field marshal’s approach aligns with Pakistan's “full spectrum deterrence” policy, which encompasses a range of nuclear capabilities, including tactical nuclear weapons, to counter various levels of threats from India.

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