Chandigarh: Should the Indian government take note of – and act upon – the geopolitical death knell of Russian power and influence that has been sounded publicly by its topmost soldier, Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan? Or has the CDS spoken out of turn and been unduly alarmist, “peddling US propaganda” as one defence analyst has claimed? The question is not an academic one as Russia is still India’s principal materiel supplier and ‘decoupling’ is the essence of what the CDS seems to be saying.
Delivering the 14th Air Chief Marshal L.M. Katrememorial lecture in Bengaluru last weekend, General Chauhan declared that the geopolitical importance of Russia would decline in times to come, despite it being a nuclear power.
The Wagner rebellion, he said, referring to Moscow’s state-funded rogue private army, indicated Russia’s internal weakness and was indicative of what (adversity) may lie in store for its future, though he declined to elaborate on this point. The CDS further declared that, conversely, Beijing’s economic heft was now visible in the political, diplomatic and military domains and that the world would now see a more assertive China.
General Chauhan’s pessimistic and somewhat cynical public assessment regarding the future potential of a vital Indian ally and provider of 45% of the country’s defence equipment and over 40% of its oil imports, have been unfavourably received in official and diplomatic circles. Some media reports have asserted that this grouping is of the view that military personnel should not publicly make ‘inappropriate’ statements and should not be making prophecies that have a major bearing on foreign policy matters.
Earlier, for decades, clearance by the army’s Military Intelligence (MI) directorate was mandatory for all armed forces personnel before making any public statement – particularly adverse – with regard to any other country, including Pakistan, as this had the potential to affect bilateral ties. It is, however, not known whether in recent years this stipulation remains valid or, like numerous other military protocols, has been dispensed with, especially with regard to the CDS’s public declarations on diplomatic matters.
Whatever the propriety, General Chauhan was voicing beliefs prevalent within domestic military circles regarding Russia’s declining power status and influence, following its ongoing catastrophic war with Ukraine and the consequent sanctions this had invited from the United States and its allies. Even though Ukraine’s vaunted military offensive has not altered the reality of Russian occupation, the 20-month long war has effectively punctured the myth of Russian military indomitability and the competence of its varied platforms and equipment – a lot of which has proven operationally ineffective and inefficient on the battlefield.
Speaking to The Wire, a cross-section of serving and retired military officials privately doubted Moscow’s ability to maintain uninterrupted supplies of spares, components and sub-assemblies to India to sustain over 65% of in-service Russian equipment, and to deliver an assortment of platforms like air defence systems, frigates, a nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) and assault rifles, all of which are on order.
“Although the Ministry of Defence, the services and officials in Moscow continue to put on a brave front by claiming that there are no hitches in bilateral military commerce between the two sides, problems endure,” said a recently retired two-star Indian Army officer. These bottlenecks will continue to persist, and are likely to get worse, impinging negatively on our operational efficiency, he added, declining to be named given the sensitivity of the matter.
The Indian military’s dependency on Moscow continues to be overwhelming.
The bulk of the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) 29-30 fighter squadrons operate Russian platforms like 260-odd multi-role ‘Flanker’ Su-30MKIs fighters, 84 of which would, notably, be upgraded domestically to ‘Super Sukhoi’ standards by fitting them with 5th generation features and rendering them capable of delivering a heavier weapons load. The IAF also employs some 65 retrofitted ‘Fulcrum’ MiG-29UPG and around 55-60 ‘Fishbed’ MiG 21 ‘Bis’ ground attack combat aircraft, in addition to a large a large number of Russian military transports, mid-air refuellers and varied helicopters, all of which frequently need spares, without which they are simply inoperable.
Alongside, the Indian Navy’s (IN) principal warships are predominantly Russian in both origin and design. These include INS Vikramaditya (ex-Admiral Gorshkov), the retrofitted 44,500 tonne Kiev-class aircraft carrier and its combat air arm of 16 MiG-29K/KuB fighters. The force also has another 28 MiG-29Ks, some of which are expected to temporarily comprise the combat fleet of the newly commissioned indigenous aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant. The IN also deploys an assortment of Kamov ‘Helix’ Ka-28 and Ka-31 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) rotary platforms.
The IN’s underwater platforms too included nine ‘Kilo’-class Type 877 diesel-electric submarines of a total of 16 such boats, while Russia had also provided the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) assistance in designing INS Arihant, the navy’s indigenously designed and built lead nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) that joined service in August 2016.
Russia is also providing technical know-how to miniaturise the 82.5MW reactor for the 4-5 follow-on SSBN’s presently under construction at the classified Ship Building Centre at Visakhapatnam. No other country is willing to make such strategic technology transfers to India, but industry sources indicated that sanctions and Russia’s own needs could ‘thwart’ Moscow’s ability to continue doing so, thereby imperilling the SSBN programme.
Furthermore, over 95% of the Indian Army’s fleet of around 3,000 main battle tanks (MBTs) operated by 67-odd armoured regiments were Russian T-72 and T-90S variants – imported directly and licence built – whilst some 2,000-odd infantry combat vehicles or ICVs – the Boyevaya Mashina Pekhoty (BMP) 1 and 2 – were similarly sourced. The latter were presently being upgraded with Russian assistance, which, too, could summarily end or be adversely impacted by the ongoing sanctions.
Security officials are also concerned over the symbiosis that has emerged in recent months between Russia and China, whose army has been locked in a standoff with the Indian Army in Ladakh since May 2020. They said this burgeoning association anticipated Russia gravitating swiftly towards cash-rich China for assistance to overcome sanctions and embargoes.
“This association could end up being a simple trade-off between advanced Russian military knowhow in exchange for Chinese cash and vast industrial manufacturing capacity of assorted defence equipment,” said a senior Navy veteran. Such an arrangement would be one of mutual advantage to both sides and one that could easily be reached, if it had not already been concluded, he added.
Other veterans were of the view that such inescapable sanctions – busting endeavours by Russia – could, as ‘payback’, result in China eventually pressuring Moscow to stanch, if not altogether cease the supply of assorted materiel and related equipment to India which, ironically, Delhi had acquired over decades to deter Beijing and its military and nuclear ally Pakistan.
The reciprocal ‘no limits’ friendship between Russia and China was on full display earlier this week in Beijing, where President Xi Jinping hosted a 130-nation jamboree to celebrate his signature decade-old global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI essentially envisages China investing in over 150 countries and international organisations to further its global strategic and financial influence to counter that of the US and the dollar.
Putin, who has rarely left Russia after invading Ukraine in February 2022, was the guest of honour at the meet. Speaking immediately after Xi, he pledged support to China and its BRI project, saying it was “in tune with Russian ideas” and heaped lavish praise on Beijing for its achievements since the initiatives launched in 2013.
“The Beijing-Moscow axis that has been proliferating in recent years, is now poised to become firmer, posing a formidable threat to world peace, as both strive to aggressively carve out a new regional and global order based arbitrarily on financial and military might and the recent Israel-Gaza crisis had only worsened the situation,” said Brigadier Rahul Bhonsle of the Security Risks consultancy in Delhi.
Nonetheless, India, which had incrementally emerged as the US’s proxy over the past 15 years to manage China, could well end up facing the brunt of this deadly security partnership between Moscow, Beijing and Islamabad, he warned.
While many veterans say General Chauhan’s forecast regarding Russia needs attention, it also presents the CDS and the three services with a further dilemma that somewhat bedevils easy resolution. And though defence diplomacy is part of the CDS’s overarching charter, making public statements, even if apposite and accurate, tend to constrict India’s diplomatic elbow room in the prevailing geopolitical atmosphere.
Or, as the French statesman Georges Clemenceau memorably declared: ‘War is too serious a business to be left to the generals.’
