Extensive Border Presence in Eastern Ladakh by Indian and Chinese Military 'New Normal': Report

New Delhi: Satellite imagery from 2024 and early 2025 reviewed by the magazine Jane’s Defence Weekly has revealed that both India and China have not reduced their military presence on the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh but, in fact, have “strengthened their relative positions along the border and have continued to maintain troop rotations”. The report says that “both parties are committed to a change in posture and will likely maintain a more extensive border presence in what is becoming a new normal”. 

As per the report, the Indian Army has expanded camps, built new shelters, and maintained a significant deployment of tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles at flashpoints like Daulat Beg Oldi, Gapshan and Burtsa. China, for its part, has constructed new anti-aircraft artillery sites, expanded border defense positions and improved logistics infrastructure, enabling rapid reinforcement of the frontier.

Army chief General Upendra Dwivedi had admitted in January 2025 that “there is [still] a degree of stand-off… trust between the two countries has to have a new definition”. The Jane’s report argues that “given the greater investment for India and the mutual lack of trust, the situation on the India-China border will likely remain a long-term challenge in the relationship.”

While the Modi government claims that patrolling has resumed and troops have “fallen back to positions they held pre-April 2020,” the reality is that both sides have simply repositioned forces, not withdrawn them. “Investment in infrastructure suggests both parties are committed to a change in posture and will likely maintain a more extensive border presence in what could become a new normal,” the Jane’s report warns.

In October 2024, the Modi government had announced that India and China had reached an understanding to disengage at two remaining friction points, Demchok and Depsang. This was presented as a diplomatic breakthrough, with external affairs minister S. Jaishankar stating that “progress in the bilateral relationship” was now tied to “complete disengagement” on the border. It was reported in the Indian media that both sides would “remove camps from friction points,” coordinate patrol schedules, and restrict patrol sizes to reduce conflict.

Satellite imagery

However, a closer examination of independent satellite imagery and military analysis reveals a far more precarious and unresolved situation. The measures announced in October 2024 are narrowly limited. The new patrolling arrangements apply only to Demchok and Depsang, leaving buffer zones and unresolved tensions in at least five other key areas along the LAC in eastern Ladakh. 

“While these limited steps have helped the parties stabilise the relationship, they do not mitigate the remaining tensions, the geopolitical factors driving behaviour on the border, or the possibility that future escalation could occur more quickly, given the current disposition of forces and improvements to infrastructure in the region,” the Jane’s report concludes. It means that the “new normal” on the LAC in eastern Ladakh is one of permanent tension, rapid mobilisation potential and unresolved disputes.

There has been no public acknowledgment by the Modi government of the scale of permanent militarisation on the disputed border or the fact that “de-escalation”, mutual relocation of forces away from disputed areas, has not occurred. China has not committed to reducing its deployments and recent administrative moves, such as incorporating parts of Aksai Chin into new Chinese districts, have gone largely unchallenged in the public discourse.

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