India Needs a Clear National Security Strategy—Now More Than Ever

Over the last 25 years, Pakistan and/or Pakistan-based terrorists have attacked India through multiple high-profile incidents: the Kargil incursion, the attack on the Indian Parliament, the Kaluchak massacre, the Mumbai train blasts, the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, the Gurdaspur attack, the Pathankot Airbase attack, the Uri attack, the Pulwama attack, innumerable ceasefire violations, and most recently, the Pahalgam massacre.

Within Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistani terrorists have also carried out the Chattisinghpora massacre, the Qazigund convoy attack, the J&K assembly attack, the Raghunath temple attacks, the Doda massacre, the Srinagar CRPF camp attack, the Anantnag attack, the Handwara encounter, the Nagrota encounter, the Poonch–Rajouri ambushes, and the Dhangri attack.

It should be evident that Pakistan is operating according to its own version of a National Security Strategy. That strategy is not especially complex: to constantly emphasise, through violent and political means, their view that Kashmir is an unresolved issue that must be negotiated.

Attacks began in earnest after Pakistan tested its nuclear weapons

What is equally clear is that these attacks began in earnest after Pakistan tested its nuclear weapons in 1998. In his recent speech following India’s initial strikes under Operation Sindoor, the Prime Minister categorically stated that India will not be a victim of nuclear blackmail. So far, so good: India has refused to succumb to Pakistan’s National Security Strategy. But that still leaves us with a critical unanswered question: what is India’s National Security Strategy?

There is already a significant body of strategic literature in India calling for an articulated National Security Strategy (NSS). It’s time the government responded. Any Indian NSS will need to extend beyond South Asia, particularly given that Pakistani intransigence is increasingly buoyed by access to advanced Chinese military hardware.

To be clear, this is not to imply that India has operated without any strategy. Our counter-insurgency strategy in Kashmir has, for a long time, been treated as our de facto strategy. And that strategy has delivered measurable success: we have managed to establish a robust counter-insurgency grid while simultaneously recognising the need to win the hearts and minds of the Kashmiri people – even if efforts in this regard have often been half-hearted.

Economically too, the Union Government has pursued a seemingly coherent approach – Kashmir receives a disproportionately high share of central government grants and subsidies, the state's performance in education and healthcare is often better than some other conflict-prone areas of the country.

However, the recent Pahalgam massacre, which directly targets the growing tourism economy – arguably Kashmir's brightest economic prospect – shows how fragile this progress can be without a broader strategic framework.

If the Prime Minister's assertion that Operation Sindoor represents a "new norm" is to have any meaning, it must lead to something more comprehensive – a formalised National Security Strategy.

Historically, the great theoretical works on strategy – whether military, political, naval, or aerial – tend to follow a common format. The author surveys a sequence of state-to-state encounters and draws lessons to recommend a strategic course.

This was the method of Clausewitz, Mahan, Douhet, Liddell Hart, and Kissinger. The most comprehensive formulation of an NSS, however, comes from the United States, which has gone even further by developing a Grand Strategy.

Key elements of the US's national security strategy

Drawing from the American example, key elements of their NSS include: military superiority and conventional deterrence, information dominance, cyber security, economic growth, diplomacy and conflict prevention, societal cohesion, total situational awareness, the adoption of emerging technologies, protection of democratic rights, and nuclear deterrence.

The U.S. Grand Strategy was in large part a response to the 1948 Kennan Telegram – a detailed exposition of Soviet aims for communist world domination. Faced with nuclear weapons and the Iron Curtain, the U.S. developed and executed a grand strategic competition with the USSR that ultimately ended in Soviet collapse some 45 years later.

However, as Liddell Hart wisely cautioned, a Grand Strategy should only follow the creation of a robust National Security Strategy. He also noted that “war should be fought only for a better peace,” and warned that even war might not deliver such peace with fundamentalist regimes – a sobering consideration in the context of South Asia.

Crafting an NSS should not be overly difficult. India already has some components of a potential NSS in place – such as an effective counter-insurgency infrastructure. Other elements such as water denial need to be examined in all their ramifications. Naturally, the operative version would remain classified, while a publicly available unclassified version would help inform the public and deter adversaries.

During the same 25-year period marked by Pakistani provocations, India’s GDP has grown from five times to ten times the size of Pakistan’s. Time is on India’s side in this asymmetric contest – but a well-articulated NSS can accelerate our strategic advantage, particularly in light of Pakistan’s worsening economic situation.

Of course, nuclear weapons complicate matters. But their very existence makes it imperative for India to have a well-thought-out, long-term strategy – rather than stumble into war. It may help to remember that some of us – veterans of the armed forces and diplomatic corps – participated, nearly 15 years ago, in four war games over two years.

The need for NSS in wake of the 'new norm'

Convened by U.S. think tanks, these exercises included senior Pakistani officials and aimed to identify Pakistan’s nuclear threshold. The insights from those games remain relevant today.

India is hardly the only nation grappling with how to sustain an armed peace. China is already advancing its Grand Strategy, as evident in Xi Jinping’s landmark "Chinese Dream" speech of 2015. Europe, too, is rethinking its security architecture in the face of a potentially diminished American presence. Interestingly, China released its most recent NSS on May 12 – a timely reminder that the world is moving towards codified strategic frameworks.

If this is indeed the “new norm,” as the Prime Minister says, then India must meet the moment – with a formal National Security Strategy of its own.

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