The shift of terror incidents and targeted killings to Jammu, previously peaceful for two decades, marks a significant and troubling development.
Since 2021 and post the abrogation of Article 370, Jammu has experienced a disturbing surge in terror attacks and targeted killings, marking a grim escalation in violence that has destabilised the region.
The latest attack on an army vehicle on the Machhedi-Kindli-Malhar road in the Badnota village of Kathua, in which five soldiers were killed in the line of duty, has exacerbated the ongoing wave of terrorist violence in Jammu, sending alarm bells ringing within India’s security establishment.
This happened a day after a deadly confrontation in the Kulgam district of the Kashmir valley, where six terrorists and two soldiers were killed in two separate encounters.
While the ruling establishment projects an image of a transformed “Naya Kashmir”, the Jammu region is grappling with a troubling resurgence of terrorist activities.
The counter-terror tactics that were effective in Kashmir may not translate well to the distinct geopolitical and social landscape of Jammu.
Although this resurgence of terrorism echoes the dark days of the 1990s, it now employs entirely different operational tactics, prompting security agencies to reassess their counter-terror strategies.
The most significant change is the decrease in instances of stone-pelting and social unrest, which is noticeable when visiting Kashmir. Nevertheless, militancy and terrorist groups that continued to be largely active have now shifted to the region of Jammu.
While strategic lessons can be drawn from the past, this new wave of terror in the Jammu region – which has extensive operational grounds beginning in Poonch-Rajouri, and has involved guerrilla warfare tactics in the dense forests of Dera Gali as well as attacks on urban centres and military establishments – necessitates a fresh counterterrorism approach.
As the counterterrorism strategies that proved successful in Kashmir may not be effective in Jammu, a new, technology-driven approach is imperative to address the evolving dynamics in the region.
In Jammu’s rugged terrain, characterised by towering mountains, expansive plains and dense forests, conducting military operations as part of counter-terrorism efforts poses significant challenges.
Abdul Rashid, a retired SPO from the J&K police and a key figure in the renowned 2003 Hilkaka operation in Poonch, vividly remembers confronting a complex network of terrorist hideouts, the largest ever encountered in J&K’s history of insurgency. He advocates for a methodical approach to operations, emphasising careful planning over hasty deployments that have led to substantial casualties in the past. The terrain in Rajouri, Poonch and parts of Reasi remains formidable, yet with proper strategy and resources, success can be achieved.
Moreover, the recent shift of terrorist activities from Poonch and Rajouri to interior regions like Reasi and Jammu indicates an expanding area of operations that now includes urban centres within Jammu. The presence of highly trained terrorists, opposed to the peaceful narrative, poses a significant threat to communal harmony.
Selective targeted killings, such as the 2023 Dangri village massacre – where militants stormed the village, killing seven civilians – and the recent assault on a pilgrimage bus in Reasi, have sent shockwaves through the community. The audacity, frequency and brutality of these attacks and the involvement of locals raise serious concerns about the resurgence of terrorist networks in the region.
Unlike Kashmir, where the population is predominantly Muslim, Jammu is a diverse mix of communities. While Jammu has historically demonstrated a sense of morality and responsibility in the face of such attacks, the potential for these incidents to spark communal violence remains high.
Additionally, military analysts point out that distinguishing Pakistani terrorists, who often infiltrate from Mirpur and other regions into Kashmir, can easily be identified in Kashmir due to their distinct physical characteristics. However, in Jammu, the terrain and demographics make it easier for these infiltrators to blend in, posing a unique challenge for security operations.
Drawing insights from targeted killings in Jammu in the 1990s to understand the current circumstances
In August 1993, terrorists attacked a civilian bus in Kishtwar, killing 17 Hindu passengers. The escalating violence prompted authorities to deploy troops and impose curfews to restore order.
In subsequent years, similar atrocities continued. In 1998, 26 Hindus were beheaded in Prankote and Dakikote villages, now part of Reasi district.
According to an August 2001 report by the Times of India, militants executed a horrific attack in Poonch district, where they beheaded two Hindu priests after abducting them from a temple, and subsequently shot dead five members of a Muslim trader’s family.
Hindu temples in Jammu also became targets; a fidayeen attack at the Raghunath temple in 2002 left over 12 worshippers dead and 20 injured.
The Dangri village massacre and Reasi bus attack have further fuelled tensions.
These orchestrated actions aim to polarise communities and disrupt peace, serving a larger strategy to destabilise the region and sow communal discord. Such deliberate efforts undermine initiatives aimed at fostering harmony and provoke fear among residents.
Once militancy hotspots during the 1990s and early 2000s, these areas saw the selective killing of Hindus, forcing their migration from Kishtwar and other districts to safer locations.
For a better understanding, we need to deep dive into the timeline of the recent attacks and the new operational tactics being used by terror outfits.
Also read: Who Allowed Militancy to Foster in Jammu and Kashmir?
Timeline of recent terror attacks in Jammu
Many recent incidents, often misreported as occurring in Kashmir, have actually taken place within Jammu’s borders.
In the last month alone several attacks have struck the Reasi, Kathua, Doda and Rajouri districts in Jammu, prompting a region-wide high alert.
One of the bloodiest attacks that sent alarm bells ringing across India occurred on a bus carrying pilgrims in Reasi on the day Prime Minister Narendra Modi took his oath. In an act of bravery, the driver attempted to escape the attack but lost control of the bus, causing it to plunge into a gorge, killing nine and injuring 33.
The government’s inability to provide precise statistics on active terrorists, infiltration rates and neutralisation figures indicates a lapse in intelligence.
• February 2018 Sunjuwan terror attack: In 2018, an army camp in Jammu’s Sunjuwan was attacked by the Jaish-e-Mohammad terror outfit. It involved heavily armed terrorists assaulting a military camp, resulting in the deaths of five army men, one civilian and injuries to several others. The attackers were neutralised after a prolonged gunfight.
• January-March 2021: Signs of increased terrorist activity and cross-border infiltration emerged. An entirely new operational strategy was used by Pakistan-backed terrorists. Sticky bombs were seized from the international border in Samba district. Terrorists used scientific methods to tunnel beneath border fences.
• June 27, 2021: For the first time, low-flying drones were suspected to have been used to drop two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) on security establishments and the Jammu air force station.
• May 2022: The Katra bus fire kills four. Initially believed to be an accident, it was later suspected to be a terror attack that used sticky bombs.
• December 2022: In Sidhra, four terrorists were killed in a firefight with security forces near Jammu, averting a major terror attack as a large cache of weapons was recovered.
• January 2023: The Dangri village massacre takes place. In the aftermath of this attack, weapons were distributed among and training was imparted to village defence guards for the safety and protection of their people. This incident highlighted a shift towards targeting civilian areas to instill fear and disrupt normalcy.
• June 9-12, 2024: Terrorists carried out four attacks in the Jammu region:
—The Reasi bus attack, addressed earlier;
—A village in Kathua near the international border saw a gunfight resulting in the deaths of two militants and a Central Reserve Police Force officer;
—Two separate attacks on checkpoints at Gandoh and Chattergala in Doda district injured seven security personnel.
• As mentioned at the beginning of this article, an army vehicle was fatally attacked in the Machhedi Area of Kathua.
These attacks reflect the evolving operational tactics of terror outfits. Also, the geographical shift of these terror attacks suggests a strategic broadening of terrorist objectives. The use of advanced tactics such as tunnelling beneath border fences, and technologies such as iridium satellite phones and thermal imagery, demonstrates a strategic shift towards more covert and technologically aided methods.
What is particularly alarming is that some recent terror attacks in the Jammu region have been claimed by a relatively new terrorist organisation, The Resistance Front (TRF). This Pakistan-backed group, affiliated with the Lashkar-e-Taiba, also initially took responsibility for the Reasi bus attack. The TRF had ominously signalled that this assault was merely the “beginning of a renewed start”, with further attacks on tourists and non-locals likely.
In response to this grave threat, security protocols have been significantly heightened, and the National Investigation Agency has been assigned to lead the investigation.
Moreover, the diversity of targets – from military camps to crowded markets and pilgrimage buses – reveals a concerted effort to maximise impact and destabilise the region through varied forms of violence.
Well-equipped insurgents and troop redeployment are challenges
The recovery of sophisticated arms and ammunition from terrorists in the region, including US-made M4 assault rifles, Chinese weapons and encrypted radio sets, underscores the well-equipped nature of these insurgents.
Such advanced weapons were left behind in Afghanistan by US and NATO forces, eventually making their way to the Taliban and then into Pakistan, fueling terrorist groups.
That the alleged mastermind behind the Katra bus bombing in May 2022 was a teacher indicates the presence of active sleeper cells facilitating these operations.
Despite security forces being well-prepared, the resurgence of terrorist activities and the new element of surprise used by terrorists in the interiors of Jammu presents a formidable challenge, especially with the Amarnath Yatra underway.
The strategic redeployment of troops is another reason for growing escalation as the terrorists are exploiting the void left by the redeployment of forces.
According to lieutenant general B.S. Jaswal (Retd), former Northern Army commander, the troop density south of the Pir Panjal range has diminished. This reduction is due to forces being reallocated to the Ladakh sector in response to the ongoing standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control. Addressing this challenge necessitates the deployment of the Central Armed Police Forces to bridge the security gap.
Counter-terror operations are heavily dependent on a robust human intelligence network. Incidents such as the one following the December 21 terror attack in Poonch, where eight civilians were detained and allegedly tortured by security forces, leading to the deaths of three individuals and the hospitalisation of five others, erode public trust in the security establishment, making counter-insurgency operations more challenging.
The army’s investigation into the incident reportedly indicated that the three men died of torture. In response, defence minister Rajnath Singh and army chief General Manoj Pande visited Rajouri to meet with the victims’ families, assuring them that justice would be served.
Such occurrences must be avoided to maintain confidence and effectiveness in security measures.
With J&K expected to go to the polls in the coming months, administratively managing a region as vast and complex as J&K as a Union territory without a democratically elected government is impractical. The election is a critical step toward restoring normalcy in this strife-torn Union territory.
For the past seven years, J&K has been without an elected government, with the last assembly elections held in 2014. Last year, the Supreme Court directed the Election Commission to hold assembly elections in J&K by September 30, 2024.
Terror attacks in Jammu underscore Pakistan’s malicious intent to prolong the Kashmir conflict, evidenced by a strategic shift in its modus operandi and operational tactics within the Jammu region. Absent significant punitive measures and a new counter-terror strategy against Pakistan, the escalation of its terrorist activities within J&K is inevitable.
An escalation of terrorist attacks in Jammu could give reasons to the Modi government to postpone assembly elections yet again. It is crucial for the government to cease propagating misleading narratives and confront the true state of affairs.
It is imperative that the security agencies, with the support of local communities, undertake carefully planned operations to dismantle terrorist networks, restore peace and reinforce social cohesion in this strategically vital region.
Kanwal Singh is a policy analyst and columnist from J&K.
