Modi’s Grand Plan of a ‘Sudarshan Chakra’ Is Unlikely to Come up by Deadline

Prime Minister Modi’s Independence Day address covered a range of areas from politics, self-reliance and social policy to Operation Sindoor and the Indus Waters Treaty. An important adjunct was the issue of defence. Two references stood out.

Evoking mythology, the prime minister spoke of the need for our own air defence system – part of a larger scheme named Sudarshan Chakra – a national shield that will be in place by 2035. He also spoke of the need for “our jet engines for our own Made in India fighter jets.” It is important, however, to separate his nationalistic rhetoric from the realities of the challenges we confront, as well as from their WhatsApp University iteration.

The media has spoken of this as an Iron Dome like system, which is perhaps not the right analogy since it is limited to protecting Israel against short range (4-70 km) unguided rockets. What the prime minister was really talking about was the Golden Dome being mooted by President Trump for the United States. The challenge for India is not just technological, but financial.

In the Iran-Israel war in June, the US used 25% of its total Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missiles to defend Israel. Given that anywhere upto 80 interceptor missiles were used, each costing $12-15 million, the total cost was over $1 billion to protect a tiny country for 11 days. In addition to this, the US also used its SM3 and SM-6 anti-ballistic missiles, shooting up to 80 SM-3s, which can cost anywhere between $8-25 million, depending on the variant. Despite these defences that cost billions of dollars, Israel suffered significant damage in its military bases and strategic infrastructure.

The Indian Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) performed well in the recent four-day war. But it faced a limited challenge from Pakistani drones and missiles. Pakistan has now declared that it will create a rocket force which could enhance the challenge for Indian air defences.

At present, Indian air defences are a patchwork of systems – S-400, Barak 8 SAMs, Akash SAMS and the American National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System (NASAMS) that protects Delhi. These have been skilfully integrated into the ground and air-based radar system but will wilt under a significant challenge.

Given the American and Israeli experience in defending a small strip of territory against a concerted attack, it is a big question as to whether India could ever fabricate a Sudarshan Chakra system that could shield the entire nation against potential Pakistani and Chinese attacks.

Jet engines

Public memory is short, but official memory shouldn’t be so. The prime minister seems to have forgotten the fact that we already have a jet engine programme that goes back decades, the only problem is that it has not delivered what was expected of it.

The Kaveri engine programme was perhaps the most ambitious element of the Light Combat Aircraft programme begun in 1983. Most jet engines have been designed in temperate or cold countries, the idea behind Kaveri was to have an engine designed for the “hot and high” conditions that are required by Indian fighter aircraft. The Gas Turbine Research Establishment (GTRE) was given the task to take up work on the engine now known as the GTRE-GTX-35VS Kaveri.

Work began in 1989 on an afterburning turbofan engine that would produce at least 90 kilonewton (kN) thrust, sufficient for the LCA. In its capabilities, it would match the American GE 404 which powered their frontline fighters like the FA-18.

By the time work began, it became clear that the task that the GTRE had undertaken was enormous. So the government decided to hedge their bets and when the Americans offered the GE 404 engine, as part of the thaw in Indo-US relations in 1987, New Delhi accepted.

Work carried on, but despite great effort, the Kaveri prototypes failed to achieve the target thrust and reliability. India realised just how much science, particularly that of metallurgy, went into the challenge. Repeated turbine-blade failures dogged the project as well as the lack of adequate test facilities.

The result was that by September 2008, the Kaveri was officially delinked from the Tejas programme and India decided that it would use the GE-404 for its Mark 1 variant, and the GE-414 for the Mark II.

Though a failed project, it helped in catalysing Indian capabilities by establishing specialised design and testing facilities and the growth of metallurgical and materials science capacity. It also created a trained workforce in this important aerospace area. By 2012, nine Kaveri prototypes and four engine cores had been tested for over 3200 hours and even flight tested on a Russian test aircraft. The dry engine is now being developed for powering a stealth UAV.

So, when it comes to jet engines, they come with history and have taught us that there are formidable technological barriers still before us. Even the Chinese, who have developed several jet engines, do not quite have one that is comparable with the best western or even Russian engines in terms of their thrust to weight ratio and reliability.

Having learnt its lesson, India is now depending on getting help from France and the US to develop jet engines. The Indian roadmap remains ambitious and strategically important and is moving along three main directions. It is important to note that Safran of France and GE of the US will assist us, but are unlikely to give us their core technologies; no foreign technology company does that willingly. In this context, it needs to be pointed out that the much mooted Brahmos supersonic missile that played havoc with Pakistani targets in Op Sindoor is a derivative of the Russian Oniks missile, and its successor will be the derivative of another Russian product, the Zircon.

Frankly, the Sudarshan Chakra system is nothing but bombast. The government has shown no appetite for undertaking such an effort and there is little evidence that it has, over the years, created a technology base to fabricate one. Today, when you look at the Union budget figures, you find that the share of defence expenditure has declined in the Modi years. It was 17% of the total budget in 2014, but in the 2025-26 budget it had come down to 13%.

Likewise, the defence expenditure as a percentage of the GDP has come down from around 2.4% to 1.9% last year. The key figure here is the capital outlay. Here we find that the share of the defence budget spent on capital outlay has decreased in recent years. This is the money that is spent on infrastructure, machinery, equipment, navy ships, fighter aircraft and R&D. In 2013-2014 32% of the defence budget was spent on capital outlay but by 2025-26, the Ministry of Defence will spend just 28% of its budget on capital projects.

A nation-wide Sudarshan Chakra or Golden Dome and indigenous jet engines will cost money, and a lot of it. The US system is estimated to cost $200 billion, an Indian one will cost even more since India will have to put in place a complex system of early warning satellites and communications systems. It is unlikely to meet the date noted by the Prime Minister, 2035, almost certainly. In fact, given the investment involved in terms of money and technology, it is unlikely that anything resembling a national shield will come up any time soon.

The US’s first attempt to create a Star Wars system of missile defence was a failure because of the technologies involved. Whether the Golden Dome will work is a question-mark. More importantly, unlike India which shares borders with its two principal adversaries – Pakistan and China – the US has a buffer of two oceans which enable it to get invaluable time to activate their systems as compared to India.

Manoj Joshi is a distinguished fellow with the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi.

This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.

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