New Delhi: US intelligence agencies have raised concerns over a potential armed conflict between India and China amid escalating tensions and large troop deployments along the disputed border in a report released on Monday (March 11).
The report, released by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), underscored the strained relationship between India and China, citing sporadic encounters between their militaries as a risk for miscalculation and escalation.
“The shared disputed border between India and China will remain a strain on their bilateral relationship. While the two sides have not engaged in significant cross-border clashes since 2020, they are maintaining large troop deployments, and sporadic encounters between opposing forces risk miscalculation and escalation into armed conflict,” the report said.
It also pointed out China’s ambitions to establish overseas military bases, particularly in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. This move is seen as part of China’s broader strategy to project power and safeguard its interests beyond its borders, the Hindustan Times reported.
India, Pakistan and a fragile global order
While a calm persists following a cease-fire with Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC) in early 2021, the report warns that any provocations from Islamabad could lead to armed conflict between the two neighbours.
The report also highlights the fragile global order, pointing to China’s military expansion plans, aggressive cyber operations, and potential interference in the upcoming 2024 US presidential elections. Alongside these concerns, the assessment mentions ongoing conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
India-China standoff
Both India and China have amped up efforts on infrastructure projects near the border since a military standoff with China in Ladakh sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) began in May 2020.
Also read: ‘Two Steps Forward, One Step Back’: The Chequered Story of India and China’s Border Tensions
Close to 50,000 troops from each side have been stationed in the area and India has made it clear that bilateral relations cannot be normalised till there is peace and tranquility in the border areas, the Hindustan Times report said.
In continuation of these efforts, Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently inaugurated the Sela tunnel in Arunachal Pradesh, enhancing all-weather connectivity to the strategically important region of Tawang.
India reportedly lost about 1,000 square kilometres of area in Ladakh to Chinese control in 2020, as per intelligence inputs provided to the Union government. Since then, twenty-eight rounds of negotiations between the two countries have failed to resolve the deadlock.
While China has publicly staked their claim on parts of Arunachal Pradesh, renaming some towns, details about physical confrontation with Indian soldiers were never made public. Former chief of Army Staff, General M.M. Naravane’s memoirs were also withheld for revealing how the Modi government left the Army to its own devices when hostilities at Galwan broke out.
