Kathmandu: With fewer than 100 days until Nepal's March 5 elections for a new House of Representatives, the interim government led by Sushila Karki has stepped up its preparations. The administration is ramping up logistics, coordinating with electoral bodies, and mobilising security forces to ensure the vote proceeds smoothly.

The political mood has also eased as the government and major parties resume talks that help reduce the tension seen after Karki took office.

Major parties commit, but conditions remain fragile

While major parties remain preoccupied with internal meetings and leadership selection, most have committed to participating and begun laying groundwork. Newly formed parties are also identifying candidates and launching campaigns. Karki herself has adopted a more conciliatory tone, reaching out to key players after initially keeping her distance.

On November 27, Karki held her first formal meeting with a delegation of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) led by general secretary Shankar Pokhrel, although the party had attended earlier all-party meetings called by the prime minister. However, she has yet to meet senior leaders such as K.P. Sharma Oli, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Sher Bahadur Deuba whose engagement could help reinforce the electoral environment. UML told Karki that it does not oppose elections in principle but argues that conditions remain inadequate.

UML leaders drew attention to travel restrictions on chairman Oli, saying elections cannot take place if he remains unable to leave Kathmandu. Nepal's Ministry of Home Affairs had imposed the restrictions following recommendations from a probe commission investigating arson and vandalism. Oli must now seek permission from the commission to travel outside the Kathmandu valley.

UML has not taken a formal decision on whether to join the vote and has filed a writ petition at Nepal's Supreme Court demanding restoration of parliament and challenging the constitutionality of the government. Even so, the party has registered with Nepal's Election Commission, which has encouraged both the government and the commission on elections.

The Nepali Congress has officially agreed to participate, saying elections are the only way to break the current deadlock. This decision has helped ease the political atmosphere. The Nepali Communist Party led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal has also committed to the polls, and Dahal is bringing several smaller communist groups under his leadership. Even splinter Maoist factions have registered, expressing willingness to contest.

Gen Z activism fuels record party registrations

The Gen Z movement has catalysed an unprecedented surge in new political formations. More than 137 parties are now registered with the Election Commission – a number which is climbing. At least 106 have registered specifically for the March 5 vote, compared to just 82 that contested in 2022.

Retired security officials, former bureaucrats, business leaders, and journalists have entered the fray. Buddha Air owner Birendra Bahadur Basnet has launched his own party. Defections and splits have accelerated, with numerous splinter groups joining Dahal's Nepali Communist Party. These trends have created a more energetic electoral atmosphere. Several new parties, including those led by Gen Z figures, hope to gain ground amid public disenchantment with established parties.

Election Commission advances work amid leadership gap

Nepal's Election Commission, the constitutional body responsible for all levels of elections, is making its own preparations. The body currently lacks a permanent head and commissioner Ram Prasad Bhandari is serving as acting chief, but it has assured the government that it is fully capable of conducting the vote. 

The commission has completed voter list updates, adding 101,674 new voters to make a total of 1,903,324. Youth registration has surged, partly driven by Gen Z mobilisation. The election calendar has already been released.

The Gen Z movement appears to have motivated many young people who were previously apathetic to politics to register. The commission has already released the calendar for the March 5 elections.

Security concerns cast longest shadow

Despite a more positive political mood, security remains a major challenge. During violent protests on September 8 and 9, several police personnel were killed, dozens injured, and scores assaulted. Around 1,200 weapons were looted and about 400 police posts were burned. This has raised concerns about police ability to provide election security. 

As a result, the government is relying more heavily on the Nepal Army which is likely to play a larger role this time. President Ram Chandra Poudel has already authorised its mobilisation. On November 28, Karki visited army headquarters where she instructed commanders to ensure full security during the polls. The government has begun temporary police recruitment, and is procuring equipment from India and other countries.

Yet even parties committed to contesting continue demanding a fully conducive environment.

Leaders of CPN UML in particular face obstruction from various groups when travelling outside Kathmandu. This week, UML leaders were blocked by youths in several areas.

Growing intra-party rifts in CPN UML and the Nepali Congress could also pose risks. Nepali Congress has not decided on its general convention and UML faces similar uncertainty. Some Gen Z groups have warned they may obstruct the elections if their demands are not addressed beforehand.

The cost of delay: Constitutional crisis looms

There are still challenges but even postponing the election is not easy. Karki was appointed with a six-month mandate to conduct elections. Missing that deadline would raise profound constitutional questions about her government's legitimacy.

Even the Nepal Army has suggested to both government and political parties that failure to hold elections on time might create more complexities. Poudel has been pressing the government and political parties to hold elections on the time as well and Karki has time and again said that her only mandate is to hold the elections, and that she is fully committed to hold the elections on March 5. 

Observers say that if the vote does not take place on schedule, problems will mount. The constitutionality of the current government and the dissolution of parliament has already been challenged in Nepal's Supreme Court. The court has completed preliminary hearings on more than a dozen writs related to the dissolution. A separate writ challenges the constitutionality of the government itself. As preparations continue, the court will attract significant attention.

Observers suggest that if the election process gains momentum, the court is unlikely to restore parliament. Conversely, if the polls collapse, the court may revive the House to prevent further constitutional instability. Both possibilities – elections and parliamentary restoration – remain in play simultaneously, leaving Nepal's political trajectory unsettled until the final stretch.

Despite formidable obstacles – security gaps, party divisions, and judicial challenges – Nepal is inching toward the polls. Postponement or cancellation now appears increasingly troublesome, as neither the government nor Nepal's Election Commission can credibly halt preparations at this stage. Whether that momentum can carry through to March 5 remains the question gripping the Himalayan nation.

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