Despite ongoing internal and external challenges, the Muhammad Yunus government has stabilised a post-revolutionary society. The government is ready to implement the lasting reforms demanded by the revolution before holding the parliamentary election that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) urgently wants.
Bangladesh’s Monsoon Revolution is now marred by a BNP-led debate over whether the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus should implement reforms before holding parliamentary elections. These reforms will determine whether the revolution has led to a lasting and fundamental change to shape Bangladesh’s future.
Some in the BNP believe that the interim government’s responsibility is to hold a parliamentary election immediately. They believe that the interim government is failing and poses a risk of instability, saying the solution to this issue is to conduct an election to transfer power to a political government, which evidently will be led by the BNP. The BNP’s desperate plea stems from a fear of the youthful political movement that helped to oust the Sheikh Hasina regime.
Reforms are a must before the next election
The BNP demanded a clear roadmap and now the interim government has offered one. Reform commissions have been formed and are due to submit their findings by the end of December. The chief advisor is committed to resume consultation with the political parties, mainly the BNP, to ascertain the scope of the reform and then arrange an election.
The pressure on the interim government to hold elections may jeopardise reform efforts. This stance is disingenuous as the party stated its willingness to give Yunus and his colleagues the time to make reforms. To conduct a credible election while honouring the commitment to reform, the BNP needs to wait until at least the constitutional and electoral reform commissions finalise their proposals. On one hand, its leaders are actively collaborating with the commissions to propose their suggestions for reform, and on the other, they are consistently exerting public pressure on the government to announce a date for the elections.
Also read: ‘Bangladesh Elections Likley in Late 2025 or Early 2026’: Muhammad Yunus
Contrary to what the BNP says, Yunus has never suggested a four-year timeline for his tenure. His comments to Al Jazeera were misunderstood when he mentioned that the reform commission might propose a new four-year term for the new parliament which he further clarified in his later interview with The Daily Star.
A post-revolution interim government
There is no clear standard to evaluate the interim administration’s success, as this unique government emerged from an unprecedented revolution, and expectations can sometimes be unrealistic and lack context.
Within 50 days of Yunus taking over the government, on September 17, the Bangladesh Bank declared that the country’s foreign exchange reserves have increased and gained stability. This was a remarkable recovery given the state of the economy was almost on the brink of collapse when he took charge. Bangladesh’s export earnings in October this year grew by 20.6% year on year (YoY), fetching $4.13 billion, according to data released by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). In October, the RMG sector generated $3.30 billion in export revenues – a 22.8% YoY increase.
According to data from the Bangladesh police comparing September and October 2023 with the same months in 2024, indicators are showing that, even in a post-revolution society, crime rates are decreasing. The reports are based on complaints filed at police stations. Notable declines have been observed in various categories, including rape, attacks on women and police, smuggling, drug-related offenses, and theft-related complaints.
The government faced immense pressure from genuine demands by groups discriminated against by the fallen regime, as well as from fabricated and staged protests orchestrated by Hasina through leaked telephone calls. They handled these situations without resorting to brutal force. One must admire that this was accomplished with a very demoralised police force, which had become completely politicised as an organisation, and half of them fled after the revolution.
BNP wants old politics back
One of the reasons the BNP is advocating for early elections is its difficulty in controlling its leaders and activists, who are trying to take over extortion rackets left behind by members of the Awami League. This situation has created a concern that the BNP’s popularity may decline further, potentially reminding the public of the patron-client system that the BNP is likely to reinstate if it returns to power.
The BNP grassroots seemed to have been busy re-enacting scenes from Awami League’s time in power in a bloody competition to take control of extortion rackets. This saw, as of September 26, at least eight of its members being killed due to factional clashes. The Crisis Group report notes that ‘’at the grassroots level, BNP operatives quickly took control of lucrative rackets that had previously been under Awami League’s control, such as extorting roadside shops, collecting illegal tolls, and demanding protection fees from illegal businesses, such as brick kilns and quarries.”
Prothom Alo reported that since the collapse of the Awami League regime, the BNP had to act against over 1,000 leaders and activists within two months for allegations including attacks, occupation, and extortion. The BNP commendably took steps to discipline its leaders and activists. However, many wonder how sincere those disciplinary actions were and if it was just public relations and damage control exercises.
Some BNP intellectuals want a political government as soon as possible, advocating for a clientelist political system that offers stability and certainty through elected officials’ ‘unofficial authority’ and ‘informal networks’. This is the same structure that the Hasina regime exploited while misappropriating state resources. In fact, during every subsequent election, the Awami League campaigned on the slogan of continuity and stability. An election without reform effectively means maintaining the status quo.
The BNP is vulnerable to this patronage structure and has struggled to provide discipline, competence, and effective policies due to its current organisation. The party’s high command bears a striking resemblance to that of the Awami League and benefits from political capital inherited through familial ties.
It is widely believed that the BNP’s organisational structure would only serve to formally replace the Awami League’s presence, continuing to exploit state resources in the name of legitimacy that they might gain through elections.
This dynamic is precisely what the revolution aimed to dismantle, ensuring that political governance does not become merely a mechanism for attaining power to establish electoral autocracy and maintaining a client-patron system that operates with impunity in its influence over institutions and the populace.
The rise of a new political dispensation
The leaders of the revolution have proven their ability to effectively mobilise the masses while remaining united under two distinct platforms: the Jatiyo Nagorik Committee, which engages citizens from all walks of life, and the student-led wing Students Against Discrimination.
Also read: ‘Joy Bangla’, Popularised by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, is no Longer the National Slogan of Bangladesh
The BNP understandably feels threatened by the student platforms, which have the potential to challenge the BNP in the upcoming days to fill in the power that has been vacated due to Awami League’s demise. They are particularly worried that a new political party may win popular support. In this evolving political environment, the party must reconnect with the public, who have consistently dismissed its appeals over the last decade while showing massive support for the student-led movement that ousted the Hasina government.
Following the downfall of the Awami League, holding an election now could lead to an excessive concentration of power in a single party. The interim government should strengthen the institutions before prematurely calling an election. Additionally, the emerging political party needs support to become a robust opposition, which is essential for realising the benefits of the democratic system we all value.
Ehtasham Haque is a former British Bangladeshi councillor who represented the Blackwall & Cubitt Town ward in Tower Hamlets, London. He is an anti-racism campaigner and was instrumental in the removal of the slaver Robert Milligan’s statue from West India Quay during the Black Lives Matter movement in the UK.
