Kathmandu: Nepal’s two major parties – the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), or CPN-UML – are locked in fierce intra-party leadership tussles ahead of the March 5 national elections. 

The CPN-UML, led by K.P. Sharma Oli, will be holding its general convention in Kathmandu from December 13 to 15 to elect new leadership, while the NC is scheduled to hold its convention in mid-January.

Even before the GenZ movement, Oli had amended the party statute to pave the way for a third consecutive term as chair, ignoring objections from senior leaders. His intolerance for dissent has been evident since he seized party power in 2015. He scrapped the membership of former president Bidya Devi Bhandari after she challenged his leadership, and sidelined former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, who led the party for 15 years, forcing him to defect in 2020. Similarly, senior leader Bhim Rawal was pushed out after contesting the 2021 leadership election against Oli. As a result, the party’s internal democratic culture has severely eroded.

Following the Gen-Z protests, pressure mounted on Oli to step down. In several internal meetings, top leaders argued that his continued chairmanship would tarnish the party’s image and lead to poor electoral performance. In contrast, Oli sought to further consolidate his power. It is believed that he announced the general convention to silence questions regarding leadership change. He argued that the mandate lies with the convention delegates rather than with social media platforms – a direct reference to the criticism flooding digital channels.

While Oli temporarily averted a crisis by calling the convention, the road ahead is rocky. Vice-chairman Ishwar Pokharel has announced his candidacy for party president. This move throws cold water on Oli’s plan to be re-elected by consensus. While Oli claims he is open to competition, his preference for consensus carries the subtext that senior leaders must fall in line. 

However, opponents argue that Oli’s stronghold over the selection of convention representatives makes his victory likely. Pokharel is reportedly backed by former president Bhandari. Although currently outside the party, Bhandari represents a rival faction. If Oli is defeated, her return to the CPN-UML is considered almost certain.

As the contest heats up, Oli’s camp has reverted to playing the "nationalist card." They characterise the September 8-9 protests as an attack on the government and the CPN-UML by external forces. Leaders draw parallels to the "colour revolutions" seen in many countries after the Cold War, arguing that only Oli can safeguard Nepal’s sovereignty. However, this strategy may be losing its potency. Oli’s popularity has dipped significantly compared to his previous terms in 2015 and 2021. This is largely due to the killing of 19 young people during the September 8 protests, which damaged his reputation both within the party and among the public.

More conventions

Meanwhile, the Nepali Congress has decided to convene from January 11 to 13 in Kathmandu. As per party statutes, president Sher Bahadur Deuba cannot contest again. Having been severely beaten by protesters alongside his spouse, Arzu Rana Deuba, during the unrest, Deuba has shown little interest in retaining control. He has already assigned vice-president Purna Bahadur Khadka as acting president.

The race in the ‘grand old party’ is now a contest between second and third-rung leaders. Incumbent general secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa, highly popular among the rank and file, has announced his bid for the presidency. However, a cohort of seven senior leaders, including Bimalendra Nidhi, Purna Bahadur Khadka, Prakash Man Singh, and Krishna Prasad Sitaula, are bent on stopping Thapa. Additionally, senior leader Shekhar Koirala, who lost to Deuba in 2021, is also in the fray.

The dynamic in the NC mirrors the national mood. Senior leaders are becoming increasingly unpopular following the Gen-Z movement, while Thapa, who rose to prominence as a student leader in 2006, enjoys broad support.

Unlike the UML, leadership change in the NC is imminent. The only question is who will take the helm. Complicating matters, some senior NC leaders are pushing to postpone the convention until after the general election. They fear that an intense internal contest could create factions and sabotage their electoral prospects.

Having governed together during the deadly September unrest, both the NC and UML have seen their credibility crumble. With the shadow of 76 deaths hanging over them, the upcoming election will be an uphill battle. The parties must now navigate a perfect storm – internal betrayal stemming from divisive conventions and a rising tide of public anger that frames this election as a decisive battle between traditional powers and a new political order.

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