Nepal: Oli's Party UML Withdraws Support for Prachanda Government

New Delhi: Three days after Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) supported the opposition coalition's candidate for the presidential elections, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (UML) – the largest partner in the ruling coalition – has pulled out of the alliance.

The UML – led by former prime minister K.P. Oli – took the decision after Prachanda asked foreign minister Bimala Rai Paudyal to halt her visit to Geneva hours before she was scheduled to get on a plane on Sunday. The party quit the coalition and also withdrew support to the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government.

Though Prachanda will have to face a floor test, his government is likely to survive because the Nepali Congress (NC) – which is led by Sher Bahadur Deuba – is expected to extend support.

According to the Nepali digital newspaper Setopati, UML vice-chairman Bishnu Paudel said that the party has quit the government because there were fears that Prime Minister Dahal could remove UML ministers from the government or render them without portfolio.

“Dahal insultingly stopped visit of minister from our party in the government. We concluded that he can snatch away responsibilities of our ministers or expel them from the Cabinet at any moment,” a UML office-bearer said, according to Setopati. “We have quit the government to ensure that we don’t send message that we remained in the government until Dahal removed us. This was obvious.”

On Saturday, Dahal said he would support Ram Chandra Paudel, the NC's candidate, for Nepal's presidential elections instead of the UML's candidate. The election will take place on March 9.

UML was also fearful of the fact that there may be cross-voting in the presidential election if it remained in the government. A party leader told Setopati that Prime Minister Dahal "wished to expel UML ministers and induct NC in the government".

The collapse of the coalition – dubbed the Christmas day coalition because the parties reached an agreement on December 25, 2022 – comes after two months of upheaval.

Dahal had gone into the polls in a coalition with the NC, CPN (Unified Socialist) and some smaller parties. But he quit the coalition because NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba refused to make him the prime minister. The government was formed with the support of CPN-UML and some other parties.

However, during the floor test on January 10, the NC also supported Dahal.

What happens now?

Prachanda will have to take the floor test again, as Article 100(2) of the Nepali constitution states: "In case the political party, which the Prime Minister represents, is divided or a political party in coalition government withdraws its support, the Prime Minister shall table a motion in the House of Representatives for a vote of confidence within 30 days."

Because the NC supported the Dahal in the previous floor test, it is expected to do so again. The government will still have the support of the majority "as the strength of NC and Unified Socialist Party more than offsets that of UML and RPP, that withdrew support", according to Setopati. Even if it remains a formality, he is required to pass the floor test again as per the Constitution.

Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba. Photo: International Maritime Organisation/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

Backroom dealings?

Meanwhile, the Kathmandu Post reports there are complex backroom discussions on power sharing. The negotiations may see the leaders of the NC, Maoist Centre and Unified Socialist share the prime minister's chair, according to the newspaper.

"As the three parties have decided to helm the government by turns, the ongoing five-year tenure of Parliament will see at least three governments, if their understanding holds until the next elections," it said.

Prime Minister Dahal of the Maoist Centre, NC president Deuba and Unified Socialist chair Madhav Kumar Nepal – all of whom have been prime ministers – "have a tacit understanding" to rotate the prime ministership between them. There is no agreement yet on how long each leader will lead the government, the report said.

The prime minister’s chief adviser Haribol Gajurel told Kathmandu Post that the three leaders have agreed to govern by turns, "but they are yet to come to a concrete understanding on which leader will lead the government for how long".

Constitutional confusion?

The newspaper said that if Dahal resigns to hand over the prime ministership to one of the two other leaders, there are concerns that it will "automatically go to the largest party" as per Article 76 (3) of the constitution. This article allows the president to appoint the parliamentary leader of the largest party as the prime minister, who then has to seek a vote of confidence within 30 days.

Dahal’s government was formed in accordance with Article 76 (2), which says if there is no party with a clear majority in the house, the president shall appoint as the prime minister “a member of the House who can command a majority with the support of two or more parties.”

However, lawyer Sunil Pokharel told Kathmandu Post that there would be constitutional confusion when the incumbent prime minister resigns. “The process of prime ministerial election attracts Article 76 (3) only if the prime minister is unseated after failing to get a trust vote in Parliament. But when a prime minister voluntarily steps down, the President will call the parties to form a new government in accordance with Article 76(2).” Therefore, the process under Article 76(2) can be repeated.

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