The political landscape in Maldives lacks the clarity needed to predict a decisive outcome in the upcoming parliamentary elections on April 21. This stands in stark contrast to last November, when it was evident that Ibrahim Solih’s chances of getting re-elected president were slim.
Multi-party parliamentary elections were first held in Maldives in 2009. The Maldivian Democratic Party emerged as the largest party in two out of three elections in the past 15 years. But defections have also meant that it didn’t enjoy dominance on the floor of the house. It was only in 2019 that the MDP became the first political party to receive a full majority in parliament.
Despite having a presidential system, Maldives’ parliament has rather strong legislative powers which gives it oversight over many decisions taken by the executive.
The election result is eagerly awaited as it will help gauge the level of satisfaction among Maldivian voters regarding the trajectory of the Mohamed Muizzu administration. It is particularly viewed as a referendum on Muizzu’s actions, especially on his management of relations with India, the main regional power.
Muizzu’s Peoples National Congress (PNC) is going in to these elections fresh from his success in managing to get Indian troops, who were operating three aircraft for humanitarian and disaster relief sorties out of the archipelago. While this is a success for him, it also means he can no longer rally his base with a unifying campaign like the ‘India Out’ platform.
The president has subtly mentioned Indian influence and Maldivian independence in a few speeches. However, these references have been indirect.
The opposition MDP has already criticised the government for entering into an MoU with a Chinese company to develop an agricultural SEZ instead of using the limited land for housing, which is in high demand. The agricultural development project by China at Uthuru Thila Falhu aligns with Muizzu’s strategic aim of reducing food imports and thereby, diminishing India’s leverage since the South Asian giant is the main source for essential commodities in Maldives.
Now, Muizzu must pivot to the message that a parliamentary majority is crucial to enact his policies, many of which hinge on legislative endorsement – a message that may not be as attention-grabbing.
The Maldivian president also has two other roadblocks. The first one is self-created for the ruling PNC candidates, who are given tickets after winning a party primary. However, many of the losers in the PNC primaries have insisted on standing as independent candidates. Now, Muizzu has withdrawn his endorsement from several official PNC candidates and transferred them to these independent candidates, which is being seen as a cause of concern for the ruling party.
The other spectre is of former President Abdulla Yameen, who left the ruling PPM-PNC coalition a week after Muizzu’s swearing-in ceremony, and formed his own party, the People’s National Front (PNF). While Yameen is not officially supposed to be in active politics as his 2022 conviction has not been overturned, he has continuously attended PNF campaigns events and gradually stepped up his criticism of Muizzu.
Yameen’s PNF has also fielded candidates that would certainly splinter some of the voter base of the ruling coalition.
Muizzu’s withdrawal of support from some of the official party candidates is also seen to be linked to concerns over their continuing loyalty towards Yameen.
For the opposition, the key disadvantage remains largely the same as that which tripped Ibrahim Solih from securing a second term in office last year. The MDP is in no mood to welcome former President Mohamed Nasheed back to the fold. In the presidential election last year, Nasheed formed his own party, The Democrats, and carved out enough votes to contribute to Muizzu’s victory.
The consensus is that the MDP is unlikely to retain its ‘super majority’ from the 2019 elections when it secured 65 out of 87 seats. With 93 constituencies now, the majority threshold is 47 seats.
The MDP may hold onto a slight majority, but there’s no assurance that they will keep it in the coming years.
Earlier this month, the MDP-dominant parliament approved an anti-defection bill to stop MPs from changing parties post-elections. This move was somewhat ironic because Solih’s 2018 presidential win led the previous parliament to repeal the earlier anti-defection bill.
However, since November 2023, 15 MDP parliamentarians crossing over to the ruling PPM/PNC coalitions have caused a change of heart within the principal opposition party.
President Muizzu has yet to ratify the anti-defection bill, and it’s probable that he will now wait for the results of the parliamentary elections. If the MDP secures a narrow majority, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them lose that edge as more opposition lawmakers could be enticed to join the government. A similar scenario could arise in the event of a hung verdict.
Therefore, while Muizzu’s difficulty in getting clear verdict in the parliamentary polls may be an uphill task, he would likely still be able to patch up a majority with cross-voting and defections after the elections, if necessary.
The Achilles heel for Muizzu in his governance after the elections will not be institutions, as he is seen to have managed to strong hold over all of them. The prospect of impeachment is not a plausible scenario, especially with Supreme Court unlikely to go against the executive.
However, the economic challenges, especially the need to service external debt, could be the President’s primary vulnerability.
