Anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, which peaked following the last national election that saw Sheikh Hasina hold on to power in an uncontested election reportedly supported by New Delhi, appears to be easing with Hasina’s fall amid the student-led mass uprising.
The current interim administration, headed by Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s only Nobel laureate and a highly respected global figure, has already garnered a congratulatory and conciliatory response from Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
For a long time, the Bangladeshi public has been increasingly frustrated with New Delhi’s “big brother” approach toward its eastern neighbours—a sentiment that Hasina, in her tenure, somewhat exacerbated through a submissive attitude and numerous agreements beneficial to India.
Hasina and her Awami League party’s close ties with the Indian establishment were often viewed by the Bangladeshi people as a “more give, less take” relationship. For Hasina, this alignment was likely the most effective way to maintain her grip on power, given the direct support she received from New Delhi.
The Indian government consistently positioned itself as a protector of Hasina and her Awami League, creating a patron-client dynamic in the diplomatic relationship between India and Bangladesh akin to that of Russia and Belarus.
Shifting dynamic
Hasina was first granted refuge in New Delhi in 1975 after the assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, a prominent freedom fighter whose three-year rule was marked by controversy before his death.
Hasina, along with her husband and children, lived in exile in India for over six years before returning to Bangladesh in 1981. Her strong personal ties with both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress helped establish Bangladesh as India’s closest and most dependable regional ally.
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This alliance gave India a strategic advantage in the wider South Asian region and prevented Bangladesh from falling under China’s influence.
Throughout both her first term from 1996 to 2001 and her subsequent term beginning in 2009, Hasina facilitated India’s influence through economic and security cooperation, including granting access to critical waterways and allowing Indian businesses to secure profitable deals in Bangladesh.
In return, India not only overlooked the increasing autocracy and repression of Hasina’s regime but also faced accusations from the international community of actively interfering in Bangladesh’s internal affairs to keep her in power and pressuring other countries to recognise her leadership.
But with Hasina’s abrupt and dramatic downfall, the situation has shifted, leaving New Delhi scrambling for strategies to navigate the post-uprising landscape in Bangladesh.
There is no doubt that the intense anti-India sentiment has seen a slight cooling, even in the wake of widespread outrage over India’s release of water causing massive floods in eastern Bangladesh, which have already claimed lives and caused significant damage. People in Bangladesh believe this release was deliberate, India denies the charge.
However, Hasina’s presence in India—where she fled on August 5 after her resignation—is now hindering efforts to improve relations between Dhaka and New Delhi.
In Bangladesh, Hasina’s decision to escape rather than address the crisis has been condemned by her party members as a betrayal, leaving many of her closest allies feeling abandoned and disillusioned.
Simultaneously, widespread resentment towards Hasina is intensifying due to the emergence of videos and photos showing unprecedented atrocities and brutalities she used to suppress the 20-day protest that ultimately led to her downfall.
India’s ‘Hasina dilemma’
Nearly every day, new footage emerges showing Hasina’s police force ruthlessly loading piles of bodies into minivans, incinerating the bodies of protesters, and targeting ordinary citizens in their homes. This has not only heightened public outrage but also increased demands for India to extradite her under the treaty between the two countries.
Over 100 cases have been filed against the former prime minister, accusing her of murder and abduction. Additionally, Bangladesh’s international crimes tribunal is investigating her on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity related to the killings during the protests.
The interim government in Bangladesh has also revoked Hasina’s passport, complicating her ability to stay in any country for an extended period without formal asylum.
This week, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the secretary general of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), directly urged India to return Hasina, alleging that she is using her refuge there to subvert the interim government and the democratic movement in Bangladesh.
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India obviously faces a complex dilemma: extraditing her to the new government in Dhaka for prosecution could damage its credibility with other allies. On the other hand, Hasina’s ongoing presence in India remains a contentious issue, straining New Delhi’s relations with Bangladesh and underscoring the deeper mistrust now affecting their bilateral relationship.
The Indian establishment however should keep in mind that just a few months ago, an anti-India campaign, led by some renowned media activists, had gained significant traction due to mounting anger over India’s long-perceived meddling in Bangladesh’s politics.
Many Bangladeshis had resorted to boycotting Indian products, aiming to leverage the $12 billion export market Bangladesh provides to its neighbour, and they have gotten used to living without Indian products.
If New Delhi continues to shelter Hasina, who has effectively lost all her political influence and whose return to power seems nearly impossible, it could become a significant obstacle to establishing a “proper and balanced” relationship with a post-revolutionary Bangladesh government. The decision is clearly in its hands.
Faisal Mahmud is an award-winning Dhaka-based journalist. He is the recipient of Jefferson Fellowship and Konrad Adeneur Stiftung Fellowship.
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.
