New Delhi: India is among the three partners of least strategic relevance for the member countries of Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN), with a score of 5.04 out of 11.0, while China with a mean score of 8.98 tops the charts in terms of strategic relevance to ASEAN. This result is part of The State of Southeast Asia survey -2024, which presents a snapshot of the prevailing attitudes among those in a position to inform or influence policy on regional issues.
The survey is published by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. A total of 1,994 respondents from 10 Southeast Asian countries took part in the survey, that was conducted over a period of seven weeks from 3 January 2024 to 23 February 2024.
Despite its proximity to Southeast Asia, India finds itself ranked ninth (5.04) on average among the 11 Dialogue Partners in order of strategic relevance to ASEAN. It enjoys more favourable perceptions from Myanmar (5th place) and Singapore (6th place), while countries such as Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam (9th place) which maintain closer diplomatic ties with China, the US, and Russia respectively, perceive India as less strategically significant. This reflects the influence of geopolitical alignments and regional dynamics on perceptions of India’s importance within Southeast Asia, says the report.
Only 0.6% of those surveyed said that India is the most influential economic power in Southeast Asia, in a list that is led by China (59.5%), followed by the United States (14.3%), Japan (3.7%) and the European Union (2.8%). Even Korea (1%) and the United Kingdom (0.8%) are seen as more economically influential than India in the region.
When it comes to list of countries with the most political and strategic influence in Southeast Asia, India fares worse with only 0.4% of those surveyed naming the country. China again tops the list, chosen by 43.9% of those surveyed, followed by the United States (25.8%), Japan (3.7%) and the European Union (3.4%).
When asked if India will “do the right thing” to contribute to global peace, security, prosperity, and governance, the distrust levels remained high this year (44.7%). The trust levels also saw a slight decline of 1.5%. Doubts about India are elevated, especially in Indonesia (62.2%), Cambodia (57.2%), Singapore (56.4%), Malaysia (55.5%), and Brunei (54.6%). Meanwhile, Vietnam, Thailand, and Laos are the only countries whose levels of trust outstripped the levels of distrust towards India.
Among those who distrust India, 40.6% believe that India does not have the capacity or political will for global leadership. This view is more pronounced in Vietnam (57.1%), Thailand (48.4%), Laos (46.5%), and Cambodia (43.5%). Among this group, more than a quarter (26.4%) feel that India is distracted with its internal and sub-continental affairs and thus cannot focus on global concerns and issues.
With 1.1% of the region’s confidence, India is at the bottom of the list of the countries which are seen as advocates for global free trade. When it comes to maintaining a rules-based order and upholding international law, India wins the confidence of only 1.0% of the region.
As per the survey, 32.2% view the Quad as being complementary to ASEAN’s efforts, declining from 37.8% last year. Conversely, 11.5% of the respondents say that cooperation with the Quad could threaten ASEAN centrality and compete with other ASEAN-led mechanisms. The fear of provoking China through cooperation with Quad increased marginally from 6.8% to 7.4%. Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) comprises the US, India, Japan, and Australia and has announced a delivery of public goods in the region.
The EU and Japan remain the primary options for the region in navigating the uncertainties stemming from the US-China strategic rivalry. The EU continues to hold its ground with 37.2% of the respondents opting for it, slightly down from 42.9% last year, while Japan secures 27.7% of the vote. India maintains its position in third with 10.5%, closely trailed by Australia (9.5%), the UK (9.2%), and the Republic of Korea (5.9%). India’s rating has seen a slight dip from 11.3% last year.
When asked about the country they would like to live in, India again finished at the bottom of the list, as the choice of only 0.7% of those surveyed. China figured higher with the chosen country of 4.8% while the United States was the preference of 15.9%, following Japan at 17.1% and any ASEAN country at 22.4%.
The State of Southeast Asia survey, now in its sixth year, continues to gauge the views and perceptions of Southeast Asians on geopolitical developments affecting the region, key international affairs and how ASEAN Dialogue Partners have engaged with the region over the preceding year.
