Islamabad: External affairs minister S. Jaishankar arrived at Rawalpindi’s Nur Khan Air Base on Tuesday, October 15, to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting, marking the first visit by an Indian foreign minister to Pakistan in nine years.
His special flight landed at the air base at 3.30 pm local time. He was greeted by the senior Pakistani foreign ministry official in charge for South Asia, Ilyas Nizami, and the Indian high commission’s charge d’affaires, Geetika Srivastava.
The Indian minister is scheduled to be in Pakistan for 24 hours, but there is no sign of any bilateral meeting between the two sides.
After his arrival, Jaishankar’s first port of call was at Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s residence to attend an informal dinner for the participants of Wednesday’s SCO council of heads of government meet.
A screen at the SCO meeting venue displays visuals of Jaishankar landing in Pakistan today, October 15. Photo: Devirupa Mitra.
Jaishankar was seen briefly shaking hands with Sharif – who was waiting at his residence to greet attendees – and appeared to offer pleasantries to the Pakistan prime minister, who in turn seemed to nod in agreement. After the handshake, Jaishankar went inside, while Sharif awaited the next guest.
At the dinner, all the main guests – the top representatives of the SCO member states – were seated at the table with the Pakistan prime minister. But there was no opportunity for a tete-e-tete as Jaishankar, in line with his rank, was seated some distance away. Sharif was flanked immediately by Chinese premier Li Qiang on one side and Kazakh Prime Minister Oljas Bektenov on the other side.
The cultural event at the dinner featured distinctive performances from the member states. Representing India, two Pakistani dancers performed the south Indian classical dance, Bharatanatyam.
Ahead of the visit, both Indian and Pakistani ministers firmly denied any bilateral component to Jaishankar’s time in Islamabad. However, an exchange of courtesies during the dinner and arrival ceremony took place as expected.
A senior Pakistan government minister ruled out any bilateral meeting unless it was sought by India.
“We are the hosts, so we cannot propose it. We have to go by the guest. If the guest wants a bilateral meeting, we will be happy to oblige. But as hosts, we cannot press anyone to hold a bilateral meeting,” Pakistan’s Minister of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, Ahsan Iqbal Chaudhary, told a group of Indian journalists.
Jaishankar had stated prior to the visit that he was going to Islamabad solely to attend the SCO meet and not discuss India-Pakistan issues.
In answer to The Wire’s question on whether trade ties can be restored, Chaudhary said, “I think we need to go back to the spirit of the Lahore Declaration. That was a high point between the leaderships of both countries, achieved by Nawaz Sharif and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. That is the spirit for both countries to move forward. If we return to the Lahore Declaration, there is no problem we cannot solve together”.
He ruled out the restoration of road and rail links unilaterally by Pakistan. “There has to be reciprocity. If both Pakistan and India can talk and start a process of dialogue, as I said, in the spirit of the Lahore Declaration, it could move things forward. Unfortunately, events after the Lahore Declaration did not favour it, but we still need to return to that”.
The February 1999 Lahore Declaration is unlikely to find favour with Indian today as its first point — that the two sides “shall intensify their efforts to resolve all issues, including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir” – is considered by the Modi government to be no longer relevant.
Chaudhary reiterated that both India and Pakistan have “enough ammunition to blame each other”. “I think we need to move beyond that and consider the more than 1.5 billion people who live in this region. What is their future? Are they destined to live in conflicts and poverty, or can they also benefit from regional integration and cooperation?”
At Wednesday’s SCO meeting, both Pakistan and India are expected to raise their respective concerns over terrorism, though without direct accusations, as the SCO typically discourages the discussion of bilateral disputes.
Relations between the two countries are in deep freeze right now, especially after India’s August 2019 constitutional amendment that changed the autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir. An outraged Pakistan had downgraded diplomatic ties and snapped trade links.
However, relations had already been deteriorating prior to that. The last visit by an Indian foreign minister to Pakistan was in December 2015, when Sushma Swaraj attended the Heart of Asia meeting. Three weeks later, four terrorists infiltrated India’s Pathankot air force base, a significant event that further deepened the decline in relations.
Besides Jaishankar, the leaders attending the SCO summit from member states include Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Chinese premier Li Qiang, Belarus Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko, Kazakhstan Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, Tajik Prime Minister Kohir Rasulzoda, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, Kyrgyzstan’s Chairman of Ministers Cabinet Akylbek Zhaparov and Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref.
Speaking to The Wire, former caretaker prime minister of Pakistan Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar said that Pakistan is happy to host the multilateral event, as it portrays the country as a “confident player with a stable political order”.
“Domestically, this boosts the government’s self-confidence,” he said.
Jaishankar’s visit has not raised expectations of any breakthrough, but Kakar said that the SCO meet does at least allow both India and Pakistan to have a chance for contact, which is rare in these strained times.
Last year, when Pakistani foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto was in Goa for the SCO foreign ministers’ meeting, it was the first visit by a Pakistani official in 12 years.
Asked by The Wire if there was interest in Pakistan for an improvement in ties with India, Kakar said, “I’ll be honest. I see a deep appetite on our part – in the military, security apparatus, political parties and even among the mullahs and liberals.”
Kakar, who had close relations with the Pakistan military, also said that the Pakistan government was not going to propose a bilateral meeting to India when Jaishankar was in town due to political reasons. “In this polarised environment, conceding could lead to massive protests by the PTI, who might lack the capacity to handle the outcome,” said Kakar, who was prime minister from August 2023 to March 2024.
India’s former high commissioner to Pakistan, Sharat Sabharwal, said that the atmospherics ahead of the Indian minister’s visit had not indicated any easing of strain.
“The juncture is not conducive for any major bilateral development because Pakistan is so engrossed internally, and then Sharif [made] cutting remarks at the UNGA. After that, the minister [Jaishankar] responded. This is not what you do if, in 15 to 20 days, you are planning to have something big or significant,” he told The Wire.
Pakistan has also not climbed down from its demand that India has to reverse its actions of August 5, 2019.
“On our side, the space for diplomacy has shrunk. The government’s core constituency may be driving this, this is political posturing as well as maintaining the narrative of terror and talks … So that narrows the options,” he said.
Kakar, a serving member of Pakistan’s Senate, the upper house of parliament, also felt there was not much of an appetite for India to engage with Pakistan. “I often hear from my Indian friends in the diaspora and multilateral forums that India has renewed its focus on the Indo-Pacific, leaving Pakistan behind, stuck in its economic and security crises.”
But ignoring Pakistan would not be wise, he asserted. “We supply energy through the Chinese corridors, but India remains deprived of this cheap energy, whether from Iran, the North Caucasus or Central Asia, all because of us. If we’re not facilitating, then we’re obstructing, and India must explore whether that’s in its economic interest or not,” said Kakar.
