As per the constitutional provisions, Nepal should complete elections to local governments by the first half of this year and initiate the process of holding the elections to the national parliament and provincial assemblies by the end of the year.
Due to the multiple pressing issues that the country has been facing, there are doubts about the timely conduct of elections. The fragile ruling coalition itself is divided over numerous political controversies. The US’s $500 million grant under Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) has created a gulf inside the ruling coalition, as its members have divergent views on it.
The Nepali Congress favours endorsing the MCC grant in its current shape while two key coalition partners, CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN (Unified Socialist), want to amend some so-called objectionable provisions. Due to the differences over the grant, there are fears among member parties that the coalition could split.
Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba seems determined to endorse MCC before the elections, but other coalition partners want to deal with the issue after the elections.
With all the brouhaha, MCC is set to become an electoral agenda in the upcoming elections. So, there are also chances of MCC becoming an instrument for fissures in the five-party coalition, possibly paving the way for a new one.
Possible split in the ruling coalition?
In Nepal, MCC has turned into a controversial issue, as it is perceived to be linked with the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Some politicians have also raised concerns that some of the MCC compact provisions supersede Nepal’s constitution. However, the US has made it clear that MCC does not have any military components, and Nepal’s constitution prevails over the MCC compact.
Amid fears about the coalition’s future, PM Deuba, for the first time after becoming prime minister last July, held a one-on-one meeting with main opposition leader CPN (UML) chairman K.P. Oli, seeking the latter’s support for the endorsement of MCC. Along with MCC, two leaders also discussed ending the parliamentary deadlock.
Nepal Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. Photo: Reuters/File
The main opposition, CPN-UML, has been hampering the functioning of the lower parliamentary chamber, House of Representatives (HoR), raising constitutional issues concerning the role of speaker Agni Prasad Sapkota from the Maoist party. CPN-UML had alleged that the speaker was biased when he refused to confirm the expulsion of 14 lawmakers from the party.
The CPN-UML believes that the speaker should not recognise the split which led to the formation of CPN (Unified Socialist) chaired by former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, his long-time colleague.
In the meeting with Oli, PM Deuba urged Oli to end the obstruction in House and allow the MCC compact to be tabled in the House. Oli responded to Deuba, saying that if the latter takes the initiative to meet his party’s demand, he is ready to support the MCC compact.
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He reportedly conveyed that his support for the MCC compact was conditional on Deuba breaking the ruling alliance. So far, CPN-UML has maintained a strategic silence over MCC though it favoured early endorsement while it was in government.
Similarly, Oli believes that as parliament is not functioning well, it is better to go for early elections dissolving the parliament. Before being prime minister in July, Deuba had the same position that the country should go for early elections. Coalition partners fear that the issue of MCC and early elections could bring Deuba and Oli together, which means the split of the current fragile coalition.
Uncertainty over elections
Along with the House, there is a deadlock over the judiciary. Nepal Bar Association, an umbrella organisation of lawyers, has been demanding Chief Justice Choleddra S.J.B. Rana’s resignation. The protests by the legal fraternity have badly affected the functioning of the judiciary, denying service to the people. However, parties are sharply divided on how to respond to the crisis in the judiciary.
Amid such deadlock and uncertainty, timing is running out for holding the elections of local governments. In 2017, Nepal had the elections of a three-tier government provision in the new constitution adopted in 2015.
According to the Election Commission, a constitutional body for holding the elections, the term of local governments expires on May 19. But, there are some ambiguities in the constitution and electoral laws. Local Level Election Act, 2017 states that elections for the heads of local governments must be held two months before the expiry of their tenure. But Article 225 of the constitution states that “the term of a village assembly and of a municipal assembly shall be five years from the date of election and another leadership shall be elected not later than six months of the expiration of such a term”.
The EC has decided to go ahead with the provision of law, which means holding elections before the expiry of terms. But, EC does not have the mandate to announce the dates for elections. The constitutional body has proposed holding local-level elections on April 27. However, the government has not decided on the dates for elections. Only a consensus among parties can end the legal ambiguity and set the dates for elections.
There have not been any discussions among parties on how to move ahead with elections as they had remained busy holding their general conventions. At the same time, parties are calculating their electoral prospects as newly formed parties and ruling alliance partners are yet to build their grass-root organisational strength, so they want to buy time.
For holding the elections, the consensus within the ruling coalition about the dates of the election is a prerequisite, as well as securing the support of the principal opposition party. If the political parties are serious about holding elections on time, they should reach a consensus immediately, because EC said that it requires 120 days to prepare for holding the polls.
If the local government elections are not held on time, it will affect national elections. As more rights and resources are devolved to local governments, they cannot remain without elected authorities for long, affecting development and governance issues. There are also fears that the current coalition will break sooner or later, creating further political uncertainty that will affect the election process.
Kamal Dev Bhattarai is a Kathmandu-based political commentator and journalist.
