The election of Anura Dissanayake as president of Sri Lanka marks a path-breaking shift in the country’s political landscape. As the leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a party deeply rooted in Marxist-Leninist ideology and historically associated with violent insurrections, Dissanayake’s victory reflects a radical departure from the dominance of Sri Lanka’s traditional political elites.
The JVP’s journey – from its violent past during the 1971 and 1988-89 insurrections to its evolution into a democratic force – is a remarkable transformation. Once considered a fringe party operating on the margins of parliamentary politics, the JVP has now risen to lead the nation due to its ability to adapt and capitalise on widespread public disillusionment with the entrenched political establishment.
This electoral outcome represents much more than the ascent of a new leader. It is a wholesale rejection of the dynastic politics and corruption that have plagued the country for decades, particularly embodied in the Rajapaksa family.
The Rajapaksas, who had once enjoyed significant popular support, saw their grip on power unravel due to their mismanagement of the economy, culminating in the 2022 economic crisis. The devastating impact of their governance created a ripe environment for the JVP and its broader alliance, the National People’s Power (NPP), to emerge as the force of change.
The electorate’s embrace of the JVP and its call for systemic reform reflects a deep desire for change at every level of governance. Voters have expressed frustration not only with the political elites but also with a system that has, for too long, concentrated power in the hands of a few families. By choosing Dissanayake, Sri Lankans have signalled their desire for a new political order that rejects authoritarianism and promotes transparency, accountability and governance free from the grip of traditional elites.
In this context, Dissanayake’s victory can be seen as a tectonic shift, as it represents a break from the past and a step toward rebuilding Sri Lanka’s political, economic and social structures on a new foundation.
Evolution of the JVP
The JVP’s history is often remembered for its violent attempts to seize state power, first in 1971 and again in the late 1980s. What is rarely referred to is its leader, Rohana Wijeweera, announcing in 1977 that his party was abandoning armed struggle and accepting the parliamentary process. Later, Wijeweera contested the presidential elections in 1982 and won 4.19% of the vote.
The JVP did not get an opportunity to contest further as President J.R. Jayewardene extended parliament’s tenure for another six years based on a referendum. Following the anti-Tamil riots in 1983, Jayewardene proscribed the JVP and drove the party underground.
Despite the brutal repression that followed the 1988-89 insurrection, the JVP underwent a significant transformation by the late 1990s. It abandoned violent tactics in favour of parliamentary politics, not as a retreat from its core principles but as an adaptation to a changing political landscape. The growing dissatisfaction with Sri Lanka’s neoliberal policies and the failures of the political elite provided fertile ground for the JVP to reposition itself.
After decades of evolution, the party was instrumental in the formation of the NPP, a broad alliance committed to systemic change and a new political culture.
Misgovernance by the Rajapaksa regimes
A critical factor in Dissanayake’s victory was the widespread disillusionment with the Rajapaksa family and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). The economic crisis of 2022, which led to mass protests and the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, was primarily attributed to the Rajapaksa regime’s economic mismanagement. Excessive borrowing, costly infrastructure projects and ill-conceived tax reforms under Mahinda and Gotabaya Rajapaksa plunged the country into an economic meltdown.
In the past, the Rajpaksas have also made effective use of racism in the 2010 and 2019 presidential elections. Mahinda Rajapaksa capitalised on Sinhalese nationalism in 2010, leveraging the victory in the civil war against the Tamil Tigers. In 2019, the Rajapaksa camp shifted its focus from anti-Tamil rhetoric to anti-Muslim racism, strategically stoking fear among the electorate after the 2019 Easter Sunday bombings, in which over 270 people were killed.
Despite their short-term success, the long-term consequences of these divisive strategies contributed to the growing public disillusionment with their rule.
The SLPP’s base was further alienated by its arrogance, corruption and ineffective governance. By the presidential election, the party’s support had shrunk drastically – from 52% in 2019 to just 16%, according to polls.
The Aragalaya and the demand for systemic change
The 2022 Janatha Aragalaya (‘People’s Struggle’) protests were a turning point in Sri Lankan politics. It was driven by frustration over economic mismanagement, corruption and the political system’s failure to respond to the people’s needs.
The protests, which led to the resignation of two Rajapaksas from the highest offices, were more than a rejection of individual leaders; they embodied a call for systemic reform. The slogan “system change” became the rallying cry for a complete rethinking of governance in Sri Lanka.
While the protestors did not propose a concrete alternative system, their demands created space for political actors to respond.
The NPP, under Dissanayake’s leadership, responded to this challenge. It called for a social revolution, promising to dismantle the entrenched political elite and return power to ordinary people. In contrast, other political actors, particularly those aligned with the Rajapaksa regime, were seen as defenders of the corrupt and failing system that had brought the country to collapse.
The Aragalaya envisioned a change in the existing governance system and a complete break from the kleptocratic ruling families that had bankrupted the country. The protestors’ message was clear: the people no longer needed the political elite and demanded a new leadership untainted by corruption and committed to real reform. The NPP’s platform aligned closely with these demands, making Dissanayake the natural choice for voters seeking systemic change.
Fragmentation of the party system
In the last decade, Sri Lanka’s traditional party system has fractured, paving the way for Dissanayake’s victory. The SLPP, United National Party (UNP) and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) all saw significant declines in support due to internal divisions and growing public disenchantment. Despite his party’s electoral defeat, Wickremesinghe’s manoeuvring to become president further deepened the public’s distrust of the political elite.
Wickremesinghe’s leadership since 1994 has coincided with the UNP’s gradual decline, particularly in rural areas. The party’s split in 2020 and the emergence of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) as a breakaway faction weakened the UNP’s traditional voter base. Although the SJB remained somewhat cohesive, it failed to present a compelling alternative to the NPP, lacking the ideological clarity and urgency that Dissanayake offered.
The fragmentation of the established parties allowed the NPP to position itself as the only credible option for those seeking genuine change.
Image makeover of the JVP
A key factor in Dissanayake’s victory was the JVP’s alliance with the NPP. While the JVP’s past is marked by violence and insurrection, the party has transformed over the past three decades into a democratic force.
Though the insurrections of 1971 and the 1980s left painful memories for many, particularly those now in their late 60s or 70s, the passage of time has softened this legacy. During those events, today’s JVP leaders were either very young or not yet born.
The JVP’s willingness to critically reflect on its past, express remorse and reshape its agenda has been crucial to its revival.
The NPP, led by the JVP, combines elements of Marxism, socialism and social democracy with a pragmatic approach to governance. This broad-based appeal resonated with voters from various backgrounds. The NPP’s focus on anti-corruption, good governance and economic reform struck a chord with an electorate frustrated by the inefficiency and corruption of traditional political elites.
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A mandate for change
Dissanayake’s victory in the 2024 presidential election signals a strong mandate for profound change in Sri Lanka. While his victory is undeniably historic, it comes with immense challenges and high expectations from the electorate.
The key question now is whether the NPP can deliver on its promises and successfully navigate the complexities of governance. Public demand for systemic change is overwhelming, and any failure to meet these expectations could risk deepening political instability.
Despite these challenges, the 2024 election marks a significant turning point in Sri Lanka’s political history, offering a real possibility of ushering in a new era of governance focused on transparency, accountability and reform.
President Dissanayake has taken a decisive first step by dismissing parliament and calling for new elections in November, seeking a parliamentary mandate to govern effectively.
To achieve meaningful reform, the NPP will need to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament, especially if it aims to abolish the executive presidency introduced in 1977 that has been widely criticised as a form of “constitutional authoritarianism”. The executive presidency has empowered a series of “strongmen” leaders like Jayewardene, Ranasinghe Premadasa and the Rajapaksa brothers, whose concentration of power has led the country into its current crisis.
Restoring the parliamentary system that existed from 1948 to 1977, before the executive presidency, is essential for strengthening democracy in Sri Lanka. By shifting power back to the people’s representatives, the NPP can dismantle the legacy of authoritarianism and build a more accountable, democratic system.
The road ahead is difficult, but Dissanayake’s early moves suggest that Sri Lanka may finally be on the path toward the systemic change that its people are now demanding.
Ajay Darshan Behera is a professor at the MMAJ Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi.