Ajey Lele 
Space exploration is a vital field of scientific and technological progress, serving as a powerful symbol of a nation’s scientific and technological prowess. This has been a central feature of President Xi Jinping’s vision for China’s future in space.
In 2013, Xi emphasized on developing a robust space program and transforming China into a space power. In September 2024, Xi reiterated the importance of this vision by calling for an accelerated push in China’s space sector.
His remarks marked a growing recognition of the importance of both the public and private sectors in advancing China’s space ambitions. Xi’s emphasis on the role of the private aerospace sector indicates that this sector could play a crucial role in propelling China’s space exploration, which otherwise has been mostly a People’s Liberation Army-controlled activity.
China’s successes in space
Xi’s 2013 pronouncement came a decade after China’s successful crewed spacecraft mission in 2003. Over the past two decades, China has taken notable steps in space exploration.
To date, China has launched around 14 human space missions and their astronauts (taikonauts) have successfully carried out spacewalks. Another major achievement by China is the assembly of the Tiangong space station (November 2022) which is now fully operational, with taikonauts continuously living and working over there.
China’s lunar exploration efforts have been equally notable. Their first lunar mission (Chang’e 1) was launched in October 2007. By December 2013, during its third mission (Chang’e 3), China successfully landed a rover and lander system on the Moon.
In May 2024, China’s Chang’e 6 mission (a sample return mission) delivered approximately 2 kg of lunar soil to Earth. China’s exploration of Mars began with the Tianwen-1 mission in 2020. During this first mission itself China has successfully put a lander and rover system on the Martian surface.
Also read: When Everything in the Universe Changed
Plan for the future
With such significant achievements in space over the past few decades, China has recently (October 2024) articulated its agenda for space exploration from 2024 to 2050.
This progressive plan shows that China first ensured the establishment of a solid foundation for its space program. Today, the country has reached a certain level of technological growth, where key innovations are happening. The US space agency NASA is not allowed to collaborate with China however they have some important other foreign collaborations are in place.
Moreover, China has addressed challenges related to supply chains, ensuring minimal disruption to its space missions. Only after securing these critical elements has China embarked on defining the future trajectory of its space activities. It is important to critically look at these ambitious goals declared by China and understand its rationale.
China unveiled a national mid- and long-term development program for space science in mid-October 2024. The program outlines five key themes and three distinct phases highlighting their priorities for the space sector over the next 25 years.
The five key scientific themes include
- The extreme universe
- Space-time ripples
- Panoramic view of Sun-Earth system
- Habitable planets
- Biological and Physical sciences in space
Some specifics about these five themes as explained by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) are as follows:
Extreme universe: The focus is on exploring the origin and evolution of the universe, revealing the physical laws under extreme cosmic conditions. Efforts would also be made towards the detection of cosmic baryonic matter.
Space-time ripples: Here, the idea is to detect medium to low-frequency gravitational waves and primordial gravitational waves, with the goal of uncovering the nature of gravity and space-time. The priority area is space-based gravitational wave detection.
Sun-Earth panoramic view: This refers to the exploration of the Sun, the Earth, and the heliosphere. The purpose would be to unravel the physical processes and laws governing the complex interactions within the Sun-Earth system. Importance would be given towards understating Earth’s cycle systems. There would be efforts towards developing comprehensive observations of the Earth-Moon system, space weather, three-dimensional solar exploration and heliosphere exploration.
Habitability of celestial bodies: Scientists will explore the solar system and exoplanets to assess their feasibility for human habitation. A search for extraterrestrial life, the origin and evolution of the solar system, characterization of planetary atmospheres and exoplanet detection would also be an important query under this phase.
Biological and physical sciences in space: Here, the idea is to interrogate the laws of matter movement and life activities under space conditions to deepen the understanding of fundamental physics. Important priority areas include microgravity science, quantum mechanics and general relativity, and space life sciences.
The program also outlines a roadmap for the development of space under three different phases:
- First phase (2024-2027): Focus on space station operations and implementation of the manned lunar exploration project alongside planetary exploration. Some important projects are expected to be presented and around five to eight space science satellite missions are likely to get approved during the period:
- Second phase (2028 -2035): Construction of the international lunar research station. This seven-year phase is expected to see the launch of around 15 scientific satellite missions.
- Third phase (2036-2050): Over 30 space science missions are likely to be launched.
Assessment
The 2024-2050 program was jointly released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the China National Space Administration (CNSA) and the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA). These are the primary institutions responsible for executing China’s space science and exploration initiatives.
From deep space exploration to understanding other planets, China is proposing to study almost every area of space science. The financial investments towards undertaking such studies is going to be significant. At the same time, there would be a lot of research related uncertainties involved. This indicates that China is not looking for any immediate economic benefits and can play the waiting game. They understand the long-term importance of such research investments. They seem keen to emerge as leaders in space science.
Also read: A Look at China’s Ambitious Spaceplane Missions
China’s space program has strong commercial underpinnings and its future agenda appears to align closely with its broader space vision. Beyond routine commercial activities such as satellite development and launches, and associated applications like communication, Earth observation and navigation, China is likely looking to engage industry in planetary resource exploration.
After collecting samples from the Moon with the Tianwen-3 mission, China is planning to collect Martian samples. Currently, there is no global consensus on how to regulate space mining, and China seems eager to position itself as an early player, leveraging geopolitical dynamics to gain a strategic advantage in this emerging area.
For China, space is a key tool in its foreign policy. China’s ambitious project called the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) extends beyond traditional infrastructure and includes a Space Silk Road. China is keen on increasing its space assistance and collaboration with BRI member states. For them, space is also about strengthening their geopolitical influence.
In collaboration with Russia, China announced the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) project in 2021, which now has more than 10 partner countries. This project is a rival to the US led Artemis program, as both projects aim to establish long-term human presence on the Moon and beyond.
Broadly, China’s agenda for the future looks to be very closely connected to space science and economics. It is not the purpose over here to view China’s space agenda through a narrow militaristic lens. However, the true fountainhead of China’s space program lies with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Therefore, the PLA’s central role – particularly that of the PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) – is expected to persist while the CAS, CNSA and CMSA become the front-end agencies implementing the overall space agenda.
Space technologies are inherently dual-use technologies. Despite China’s space development plan being primarily focused on scientific exploration, there always would be strategic angles associated with it.
A simple example of this could be the Chinese proposal to study space weather. For any space situational awareness (SSA) mechanism, space weather is a subpart. The military relevance of SSA is well-known. Space weather would have an impact on satellite communications and satellite-based navigation accuracy. Such investments would help China towards keeping its military satellite network safe. Various technological innovations and technological developments which may take place during the next 25 years could find some direct or indirect utility for the PLA’s space agenda.
It is important to recognise that China has announced an ambitious roadmap for space sciences extending to 2050. However, this does not imply a narrow focus on space sciences alone for the next two to three decades. It is unlikely that China would openly articulate its military space plans.
The strategic underpinning of China’s space program is to enhance national security through military space capabilities and assert global leadership in space exploration and technology. China understands that ‘optics’ are very important to demonstrate their technologies and the first phase of this program involves sending humans to the Moon before 2030, to surpass the United States in the space race.
Ajey Lele researches space issues and is the author of the book Institutions That Shaped Modern India: ISRO.