During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the US, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) announced that they would be undertaking a joint mission to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2024.
This announcement came much as a surprise since ISRO is already working on the Gaganyaan programme which involves demonstration of India’s indigenous human spaceflight capability. If all goes well, then by the end 2024 (could happen during 2025 also), India should have its own astronauts in space. So, when there is an opportunity to demonstrate India’s Atmanirbharta in space, why opt for a mission where NASA would undertake an Indian astronaut to ISS? Is it all about a ‘Sare jahan se accha‘ (Better than the rest of the world) moment?
The Gaganyaan mission was conceived to celebrate ‘Azadi ka Amrit Mahotsav’ (75 years of Indian Independence). The mission got delayed due to the COVID-19 crisis and ISRO taking more time to put the entire project in place.
This mission involves launching a 3-member crew in space at an altitude of about 350/400 km. The ISS also operates in the same altitude range. It is expected that the mission would last for three-days and the craft would land in Indian waters.
There are two issues in the Gaganyaan programme which require some discussion. One, was ISRO capable of handling a project of this magnitude in the short timespan it was expected to complete it in? Two, is India unnecessarily rushing for a human programme, when some other important programmes should have been on the priority list?
For India, the idea of a human space mission is not new. ISRO had started their primary studies to develop an orbital vehicle for human travel to space during 2006/2007. Some work in this regard had already begun and ISRO had achieved success with their thermal shield experiment in2007, when they had conducted the Space Capsule Recovery Experiment (SRE).
Heat shield technology is important for undertaking crewed missions. The government had sanctioned funding after the design phase’s completion for the crew module in 2009. However, the flow of funds was not adequate and as per some reports around 2013 it was decided that a human mission should not be the priority for ISRO.
The project got renewed around 2017 and during his 2018 Independence Day address to the nation, the prime minister announced that India proposes to demonstrate its human space travel capability by 2021/2022. All this indicates that ISRO was not a novice in the field of human space missions when the project was announced in2018. However, three years looked like an extremely ambitious period to build, test and operationalise various systems and undertake a human mission.
Also read: ISRO and the Myth of Civilisational Greatness
Possibly, in a no COVID-19 scenario also it would have been difficult for ISRO to fulfil the task in such a short period of time. It is important to note that always getting a total success, while testing various subsystems in the first go, is very unlikely. After all it is rocket science and historically it has been observed that keeping timelines in every project has not been possible for any space agency (big or small) in the world. Particularly, in the projects where human life is involved agencies just do not take any risks.
On 12 April 1961 Yuri Gagarin from the Soviet Union became the first human to undertake a space flight. This was followed by the US astronaut Alan Shepard Jr undertaking the Freedom-7 mission to space on May 5, 1961. These missions happened only within four years after the first satellite was launched (1957).
The space programmes of the US and Soviets were not much established during that period. It was only by 1964 that the US was able to put their first geostationary satellite into space. NASA undertook human Moon missions during 1968-1972. It is important to note that the focus on human missions to space was owing to the intense Cold War-era rivalry. Also, that was the period, when the domain of space was still evolving and superpowers were investing into new ideas. But that is not the case in the 21st century. Now there is much more understanding about what to expect from space in the near-term.
The biggest limitation for the ISRO is that they are still required to depend on agencies like Arianespace (France) for launching of heavy satellites into the geostationary orbits. The progress of Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) has been slow. GSLV-Mk I and II have undertaken 15 launches with nine successes. GSLV-Mk III can launch a 4-ton class of satellites to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO).
Present day communications satellites are normally 6 to 8-ton class of satellites. GSLV-MkIII-M1, had successfully launched the Chandrayaan-2 spacecraft on July 22, 2019. Owing to limited weight carrying capability, India just cannot carry a greater number of sensors (or heavy sensors) during planetary missions. Hence, ISRO is not able to do much science during our Moon and Mars missions.
Our focus should be on making GSLV-MkIII a more contemporary vehicle. Fast-tracking the development of semi-cryogenic engines and few other relevant technologies is essential. Ideas like a space-station on one hand and a mission to Venus on the other can only effectively fructify if we have a launcher system capable of carrying ten tons to geo orbit and 20 to 25 tons to low earth orbit (LEO).
There is a need for more focus on defence aspects. More number of communications satellites are required for the armed forces and paramilitary forces. We require a greater number of reconnaissance satellites and the upgradation of our navigation system (NavIC) should have begun by now. Near-space system is another arena which demands immediate attention and so is the additional investments towards generating space situational awareness (SSA). Post Mission Shakti (2019), not much is known about India’s investments in the domain of counter-space. At this stage, planning should begin to develop the third space launch site and establish an additional number of ground stations within and outside the country.
Looking at financial and other technological development factors, it could be argued that India could have started with robotic missions to space instead of human missions. There are both advantages and limitations in case of robotic and human missions to space. But with the Gaganyaan programme already in place, it is important for ISRO to concentrate more on that programme. India has already got its astronauts trained in Russia. Broadly, the entire Gaganyaan programme could be said to have a ‘Russian DNA.’ Now we are going to have another programme involving a human space mission with NASA. It is well understood that ISRO would have two different teams to deal with the Gaganyaan programme and the proposed ISS trip. However, the question remains: Was an ISS mission required at this stage?
NASA takes around two years to train an individual to become an astronaut. Such individuals can stay for a longer duration on a space station and can undertake various experiments in space. With more advanced training, these astronauts could also undertake repair works and spacewalks. Any such exposure to Indian astronauts could come handy for the proposed space station mission.
However, the proposal is to undertake the mission in 2024. This indicates that some four to six months of training would be imparted to an Indian individual and they would go to ISS more as a space tourist. Today, only private vehicles are available for reaching the ISS (Russia is unlikely to give a slot for India’s astronaut supported by NASA to reach ISS). It has been reported that this visit would cost India around Rs 200 crore.
Rakesh Sharma is the only Indian citizen to visit the space till date. He flew aboard the Soyuz T-11 in April 1984. This opportunity came as an offer to India from the then Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev in 1980. Rakesh Sharma had undergone intensive preparation for almost two years at the Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Centre near Moscow. He was part of a team that is known to have conducted scientific and technical research, which included 43 experiments.
India should have prioritised their agenda and first ensured that a heavy satellite launch vehicle is fully operational before getting into the arena of human space mission. Also, more focus was required on the strategic space program. But India decided to simultaneously start the human space program, perhaps because of a fear of being left behind.
Now, in addition to the Gaganyaan, India has also announced an ISS mission. The proposed 2024 visit by an Indian to ISS is unlikely to bring much value to India’s overall human mission agenda since there is very less time in hand.
ISRO can conceptualise a detailed ISS program and identify the experiments which a properly trained Indian astronaut can perform on the ISS. Both NASA and ISRO could have sufficient time to plan and execute the mission which could happen in 2026. It is important, not to view India’s space programme only from the image of nationalism and soft power. ISRO has already given India very good visibility internationally, now the time has come to move beyond the optics.
Ajay Lele researches on space issues and is author of the book Institutions that Shaped Modern India: ISRO.
