In an interview that potentially pours buckets of cold water on the Modi government’s dream that India will become ‘viksit‘ (developed) by 2047, Rathin Roy, former member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council and managing director of the Overseas Development Institute, says he is genuinely worried that India may fall into a middle income trap and never become a high-income developed country i.e. ‘Viksit Bharat’ could be unattainable.
Roy says, “I have been worried that conditions of India’s economic development are increasingly signalling the approach of (a) middle income trap … the typical fate of a middle-income country is to stay there and not achieve high income status.”
In a 40-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Roy says there are three “dire” consequences that are likely to follow if India gets stuck in a middle income trap. First, like Egypt, Brazil and Turkey, we will never become viksit. Second, whilst 25% of Indians will enjoy prosperous lives the majority will remain as poor as their forefathers were. However, it’s the third consequence that is particularly concerning. Roy says the potential for increased regional, ethnic and gender inequality, if India gets stuck in a middle income trap, could lead to a situation that could “challenge the unity and integrity of India”.
Therefore, what is at stake if India falls into a middle income trap is not just the realisation of India’s dreams but, perhaps, its survival as a united country.
