New Delhi: In an outspoken interview, while the terror incident at Kokernag in the Anantnag area of south Kashmir continues into its sixth day, with no clear idea of when it will end, a former chief of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) has contradicted the line put out by army sources and insists that “Kokernag is an ambush”.
Amarjit Singh Dulat says “an error of judgement” has “led us into a trap”. He believes false or misleading information, perhaps conveyed to the deputy superintendent of police who has lost his life, led the army into this ambush.
In an interview to The Wire, Dulat says he fears “a season of terror over the next six weeks”, although he hopes this will not materialise.
Dulat said that claims made by Dilbag Singh, the director-general of police in Jammu and Kashmir, that the state is becoming terror-free, are “wrong”. He said Dilbag Singh has frequently contradicted himself.
Dulat says that the alienation felt by the people of the Valley has now turned into “hatred”. He suggests this hatred could be one of the explanations why local people have conveyed false information to the security services and the police, resulting in incidents like the present one in Kokernag.
Dulat said one of the principle causes of this hatred is that the people of Kashmir Valley believe they are ruled by outsiders and they do not have their own chief minister and government.
He said the people in important positions are from outside the state – he specifically mentioned South India – and they do not have an understanding of the people or the land. There is no connect between the Kashmiri people and the present administration.
Dulat also said he has no doubt that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence and army are behind what’s happening and added that it cannot happen without Pakistan army chief Gen. Munir’s knowledge.
Endorsing a view forcefully put by former chief minister Farooq Abdullah – perhaps as many as five times in recent weeks – that we cannot hope to end the violence and terror in Kashmir without talking to Pakistan, Dulat suggested that if the government is unwilling to talk to a caretaker regime in Islamabad it can speak to the army chief directly.
After all, the ceasefire that came into operation in 2021 was a result of national security advisor Ajit Doval’s contacts and talks with then-army chief Gen. Bajwa.
Dulat said he did not agree with the Northern Army commander’s recently made assertion that terrorists have not crossed the Line of Control but come over the border in Punjab or Nepal.
He said it was hard to accept that terrorists could travel from Nepal to Kokernag. He also pointed out that on Saturday, after the Baramulla incident, an army brigadier had contradicted the Northern Army commander.
Clearly, Dulat was suggesting, even the army itself doesn’t accept what the Northern Army commander has said.
I am only giving you the big broad points. Each of these is covered with a fairly detailed discussion. So, for instance, Dulat explains in detail why he believes the terrorists in Kokernag are well-trained and battle hardened, how they probably have support from local people and why the Pir Panjal area is so frequently susceptible to terrorism.
Similarly, Dulat is questioned why he endorses Farooq Abdullah’s call for talks with Pakistan at a time when Pakistan only has a caretaker government and also when India itself is just six months away from an election and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unlikely to take the risk of talking with Pakistan during this period.
There’s also a discussion about different approximations put out by our agencies of the number of militants in the Valley and the percentage that is said to be “foreign”. Are these just guesstimates, is a question he’s asked. You will get the answer from the interview.
Dulat is the only well-informed expert on the Valley who has been willing to talk about the Kokernag encounter with terrorists, the fear of increasing terrorism in the Valley and prospects for the future whilst the Kokernag attack is still on.