Suhas Palshikar, one of India’s foremost political scientists, says he believes “it is not certain Uddhav Thackeray can rebuild the party to become once again the steering wheel of Maharashtra state politics”. If the party is to be restored to that lost position, the task is likely to fall on Aaditya Thackeray, whose age gives him adequate time to tackle this onerous task. Palshikar says this is, therefore, “a huge setback” for the Thackeray dynasty.
However, in a 25-minute interview with Karan Thapar for The Wire, Palshikar, the chief editor of the journal Studies in Indian Politics and the director of the Lokniti Programme on Comparative Democracy, categorically said he believes the Shiv Sena MLAs who are in Guwahati have “definitely violated the anti-defection Act”. By refusing to attend critical meetings in Mumbai and by consorting with the BJP in Surat and Guwahati, they have acted in a way that is tantamount to voluntarily giving up their membership of the Shiv Sena. Palshikar agreed that the Karnataka and Tamil Nadu precedents as well as the Sharad Yadav case clearly establish this point.
On the other hand, Palshikar pointed out that the MLAs supporting Eknath Shinde will be reluctant to merge with the BJP or any other party, even if that is the only way of retaining their seats, because then they will damage their claim to be loyal Shiv Sainiks upholding Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy and also undermine their electoral standing in their constituencies.
It is, therefore, possible that some or many of the Guwahati MLAs may return to the party fold and that Shiv Sena could overcome the immediate numbers crisis it faces but, Palshikar added, the days of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government are clearly numbered. It cannot continue for much longer and certainly not till the end of its five-year tenure.
Asked if Uddhav Thackeray made a mistake forming a coalition with the NCP and Congress, Palshikar said that the coalition was a logical culmination of three changes in the way Thackeray has conducted his politics. First, he started to moderate his party’s stand on Marathi identity and also on street politics. Third, he did not, probably deliberately, capitalise on Hindutva. The coalition with NCP and Congress was a logical consequence of this change in political behaviour and strategy.
These are some of the highlights of Karan Thapar’s interview with professor Suhas Palshikar. Please see the full interview to understand how he views the present state of Maharashtra politics as well as the implications of what is happening both in Mumbai and Guwahati.
