Ummu Salma Bava 
The outcome of Germany’s election can be read as a tectonic shift in its political arena. A ‘zeitenwende’ – epochal change – has taken place in the German landscape.
From the 1950s and 60s when Germany had the two-and-half party system, the country with Europe’s largest economy has transformed in the last 30 years into a multi-party system. The broadening of the political platform happened on both sides of the spectrum, reflecting the shifts that have taken place within Germany. The emergence of smaller parties, the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), and the increasing influence of the Greens and the Left, all point to the changing dynamics in German politics and society with implications for the country’s domestic and international policies.
A combination of economic and socio-political events of the last decade have led to an election result that puts the spotlight on how domestic preferences have changed. For long, Germany has kept the right of centre out of mainstream politics. However, in the last four years, the AfD has not only doubled its vote share from 10.4 to 20.8%, but emerged as the second largest party after the conservative Christian Democrats that secured 28.5%. The Social Democrats with 16.4% were relegated to the third position. The AfD tally has effectively challenged the ideals of political representation in German politics and underscored increasing polarisation for the first time since end of World War II.
Polarising
Migration, economic slowdown and security dominated the election agenda with issues such as energy crisis, inflation, and a longstanding housing shortage contributing to voter dissatisfaction.
Migration has become one of the most contentious topics since the impact of the 2015 refugee crisis. It has shaped the German political discourse and been exploited endlessly by the far right. The AfD’s counter narrative resonated with voters in the debates about how integration and cultural change impacted national identity and welfare measures extended to the migrants compromised the benefits that Germans received. Interestingly, persistent economic and social differences between former East and West Germany also fuelled the resentment, clearly splitting the vote. Eastern regions showed stronger support for AfD, whose solution to the immigration problem has been ‘remigration’, an idea contested by other parties that seek to protect the rights of people already in Germany.
The snap elections that took place last Sunday was the result of the breakdown of the three-way coalition between the SPD, Greens and the FDP that took office in December 2021. Two months after that, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, dropped a political bombshell in Europe which German Chancellor Olaf Scholz described as the ‘zeitenwende’. The collective European decision to cut relations with Russia, decouple from energy supply, impose sanctions on Moscow while coming all out in support of Ukraine was seen as a point of inflexion in European politics.
The second wave of refugees from Ukraine only exacerbated the existing undercurrents. It also added to a crisis that exposed the weakness of the German economy.
The Ukraine war also impacted national spending, with cut-backs across all sectors except defence, which saw a major push amid calls from Ukraine to send advanced weapons.
While the war has tested European solidarity, the AfD’s pro-Moscow position and speculations about some members receiving financial support did not dent its appeal among German voters. Active across all social media platforms, it has made major inroads among youth disenchanted by older political parties. Its slogan of ‘Germany First’ resonated with Trump’s own call to put ‘America First’ emphasising the rise of national identity.
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Misinformation campaigns and the role of Elon Musk in promoting the AfD signals to new ways domestic preferences are being decided from external actors. Having eschewed war and nuclear weapons, post-War German identity was defined by a strong economic presence and integration into a larger European presence. This had helped build the European Union. However, the strong showing by the AfD signals important changes – especially in how German youth will engage with the past, the Holocaust and questions related to collective guilt and responsibility. A top AfD has leader dismissed the Holocaust as insignificant. The Holocaust has been an important part of German foreign policy and the raison d’être for its support to Israel as it attacked Palestinians.
The new German government and the ‘firewall’
Sunday’s elections results put CDU/CSU and its leader Friedrich Merz in the driving seat having secured 208 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag. AfD got 152, the SPD got 120, the Greens got 85 and the Left got 64 seats.
Merz, at one point a strong contender to Merkel, quit politics during her tenure to return and take up the mantel of the CDU in 2022. Merz has to build a coalition government at a very difficult time as its trans-Atlantic relations face a bleak future. Trump’s entry into office has pushed Europe over the cliff as he negotiates with Russia over Ukraine. Merz’s leadership moment is vital not only for Germany but all of Europe as it struggles to remain a relevant actor in the changing geopolitical engagement between Washington and Moscow. The US vote in the UN on February 25 supporting Russia is the first sign of the dramatic shift in ties between US and Russia, and the political alienation of Europe.
Merz’s coalition will define how the government will address critical issues of immigration, economic recovery and security at home and build a vision for a stronger Europe with other leaders. Cleary a shift in Berlin’s foreign and security policy would follow. Merz has indicated a grand coalition with SPD, expressing the need to form a government by Easter. The SPD has revealed that it will bargain hard and it is not a done deal. A major sticking point will be economic expenditure and the so-called debt brake. While the SPD would like to enhance government borrowing, the Union is opposed to increasing state debt. This factor was responsible for the breakdown of the SPD-led coalition in November 2024. The approach to immigration is also a contentious point.
The other options to coalition building in Germany has produced interesting names. One is ‘Kenya’ based on the flag colours of a possible CDU, SPD, and Greens alliance. There is also ‘Kiwi’ – again on the basis of flag colours of a CDU and Greens alliance. But such an alliance will not give them a majority.
Other political parties have taken a ‘firewall’ approach to the AfD and not engaged with it at all. In January as a crucial discussion on migration took place in the Bundestag, the German federal parliament, Merz sought the support of the AfD, thereby indicating the firewall had broken. After massive criticism – and some of it reflected in the votes the party got – Merz was quick to emphasise that there would be no engagement with the AfD. As the second largest party in the Bundestag, the AfD has undeniably established itself as a mainstream party. What that will mean for Germany and Europe, only time will tell.
Professor Ummu Salma Bava is chairperson and Jean Monnet Chair, Centre for European Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.