New Delhi: On February 28, a critical White House meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy collapsed. Intended to secure continued US aid in exchange for access to Ukraine’s $10-12 trillion in critical minerals (lithium, rare earths, etc.), the talks ended in a shouting match. Trump’s January 20, executive order freezing all US foreign aid for 90 days had already signaled uncertainty, and this breakdown intensified fears about America’s commitment as Ukraine’s war enters its fourth year. Europe now faces a pivotal question: can it fill the gap if the US withdraws?
Big picture: Three years of global aid
From January 2022 to December 2024, the world pledged €267 billion in aid to Ukraine, averaging €89 billion annually. This support falls into three main categories – military aid to bolster Ukraine’s defense, financial aid to stabilise its economy, and humanitarian aid to assist its people. The US and Europe have been the primary contributors, together accounting for the lion’s share of this assistance. A report by KIEL Institute for the World Economy meticulously tracks these contributions, offering a clear breakdown of who gave what and how it reached Ukraine.
The US has provided €114 billion over three years, making up 43% of the global total. Europe, collectively, has contributed €132 billion, or roughly 49%. Other nations, including Canada, Japan, and Australia, fill the remaining gap, though their roles are smaller. This aid has been vital for Ukraine, enabling it to sustain its military resistance, keep its government running, and care for millions displaced by the conflict. But the numbers alone don’t tell the full story – consistency, capacity, and changing strategies also shape the picture.
The United States: A dominant but wavering partner
The US contribution of €114 billion translates to an annual average of €38 billion. This support splits into two key streams. First, there’s military aid, totalling €64 billion, which includes advanced systems like HIMARS rocket launchers, Patriot air defenses, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and Abrams tanks – equipment that has bolstered Ukraine’s ability to counter Russian forces. Second, there’s non-military aid, amounting to €50 billion, which covers financial assistance to keep Ukraine’s economy afloat and humanitarian relief for civilians uprooted by war.
Source: KIEL Institute for the World Economy
Figure 1 of the report graphs the cumulative military aid from the US and Europe over time. It shows the US starting strong in 2022, leveraging its vast stockpiles to deliver immediate support. However, this aid hasn’t flowed smoothly. Between mid-2023 and early 2024, an “aid crisis” emerged as the US Congress delayed new funding approvals, leaving Ukraine short of critical supplies during intense fighting. This bottleneck eased in late 2024 with an €18.5 billion loan, tied to frozen Russian assets, but the recent US-Ukraine diplomatic tensions signal fresh uncertainty. If the US, which provides 43% of global aid, scales back, the impact could be profound – a point we’ll explore later.
Europe steps up: A steady and growing role
While the US has led in sheer volume, Europe’s contribution of €132 billion – averaging €44 billion per year – reflects a more consistent effort. This aid divides into €62 billion for military support, including tanks, artillery, and missile systems and €70 billion for non-military needs, such as financial grants and humanitarian assistance. Unlike the US, Europe’s support has grown steadily, with no major interruptions.
Source: KIEL Institute for the World Economy
Figure 2 illustrates this trend, showing Europe’s non-military aid overtaking the US by 2024. This shift highlights Europe’s focus on sustaining Ukraine’s economy and people, even as it ramps up military contributions. The report credits this consistency to Europe’s proximity to the conflict and its strategic interest in regional stability.
Who leads in Europe?
Europe’s effort isn’t uniform – country-wise contributions vary, both in absolute terms and relative to economic size. Germany stands out with €17 billion total, or €5.7 billion annually, which is 0.16% of its €3.6 trillion GDP. The UK follows with €15 billion, averaging €5 billion yearly, or 0.2% of its €2.5 trillion GDP. Denmark, a smaller player, has given €8 billion, or €2.7 billion annually – over 2.5% of its GDP, a remarkable share for a nation of its size.
Source: KIEL Institute for the World Economy
Smaller Eastern European countries like Estonia and Latvia also punch above their weight, each donating over 2% of their GDP. In contrast, larger economies like France, Italy, and Spain lag, contributing around 0.1% of their GDP. Figure 4 ranks these donors by aid as a percentage of GDP, painting a vivid picture – nations closest to Russia, or with historical ties to the region, tend to give more relative to their means.
What happens if US aid drops?
If US aid to Ukraine were to stop, it would cause a major decrease in overall support. The US currently contributes €38 billion annually, a large part of the €89 billion total global aid received annually. Without this, the yearly aid would fall sharply to €51 billion, a 42% reduction. Europe, which now provides €44 billion per year, would need to drastically increase its aid to €82 billion, an 86% jump, to make up the difference.
Looking at specific types of aid shows the impact more clearly. From January 22, 2022, to December 31, 2024, a total of over €120 billion in military aid has been allocated to Ukraine, averaging about €40 billion annually. The US contributed €64 billion of this total, averaging €21.33 billion per year, while Europe provided €62 billion, averaging €20.67 billion annually. On March 3, Trump has announced a suspension to all US military aid to Ukraine. So, losing US military aid would essentially cut this crucial support in half.
In terms of financial aid, which totals between €90 and €100 billion, Europe is the larger provider at €60 billion, but the US contribution of €40 billion is still very important. Humanitarian aid, totaling €20-30 billion, sees Europe providing €10-15 billion and the US €3-5 billion; while less affected proportionally, notable gaps would still emerge.
The overall consequence for Ukraine of losing US aid would likely be fewer weapons on the battlefield and a weakened economy, creating significant challenges that Europe would need to address by substantially increasing its own support.
Can Europe fill the void?
The report suggests Europe has room to step up, especially among its larger economies. If Germany doubled its aid to €11.4 billion annually, it would reach 0.32% of its GDP – still modest for a €3.6 trillion economy. The UK, doubling to €10 billion yearly, would hit 0.4% of its GDP. France, which has given less relative to its size, could double to €6 billion annually, or 0.25% of its GDP. Together, these increases would add €11.7 billion per year.
Source: KIEL Institute for the World Economy
Smaller donors like Denmark and Estonia, already at 2.5% and 2% of GDP, could hold steady, contributing another €5-10 billion annually. The European Union itself has shown promise with its €50 billion Ukraine Facility in 2024, a collective fund that could grow. While these steps wouldn’t fully replace the €38 billion US contribution, they narrow the gap significantly. Figure 3 compares total bilateral aid by country, hinting at this untapped potential among Europe’s economic heavyweights.
A shift in how aid is delivered
Beyond who gives, the report details how aid reaches Ukraine – a story of adaptation. In 2022, 70% of military aid came from existing stockpiles, as countries like US and UK rushed to send surplus weapons. By 2024, this flipped – 66% of military aid was newly produced and sourced through defense industry contracts. Figure 5 charts this shift, showing a pivot from quick stockpile depletion to sustainable procurement.
Source: KIEL Institute for the World Economy
Europe has leaned into this trend with initiatives like the International Fund for Ukraine, raising €1.6 billion for military equipment, and the Czech Ammunition Initiative, securing €0.9 billion for artillery shells. Denmark has taken a novel route, investing €870 million in Ukraine’s own defense industries to produce artillery and drones – a cost-effective model that also boosts Ukraine’s self-reliance.
The Ukraine Support Tracker report lays bare three years of global effort: €267 billion in aid, with the US at €114 billion and Europe at €132 billion. The US has been a dominant force, but its reliability wavers, while Europe’s steady rise – from €44 billion annually – positions it as a linchpin. If US aid falters, Europe’s larger economies have the capacity to step up, supported by innovative delivery methods like procurement and multilateral funds.
For Ukraine, this support is a lifeline – military aid for its frontlines, financial aid for its budget, and humanitarian aid for its people. As of December 2024, the data points to one clear trend: Europe’s role is growing, and its choices in the coming years will shape Ukraine’s future.
