The difference between US assistant secretary of state Donald Lu’s visits to Bangladesh before and after the country’s national election in 2024 is striking. In early 2023, Lu’s highly publicised trip reflected the significant geopolitical attention focused on the South Asian nation.
The confluence of post-pandemic economic challenges, escalating US-China tensions, and Bangladesh’s impending general election spurred a wave of diplomatic activity during that time. This included a notable midnight visit from Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang, alongside a series of visits from high-ranking US officials.
Lu’s visit naturally fueled widespread speculations. Just prior to his Bangladesh trip, the seasoned US diplomat, with over three decades of experience in the foreign office, faced accusations from former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan of orchestrating a no-confidence vote against his government.
Lu was also alleged to have influenced the internal politics of two other South Asian countries, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Bangladesh appeared as a challenging yet perfect front for Biden’s value-based democracy promotion. The country’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was in her third term, having won the previous two elections (2014, 2019) marred by controversy and allegations of rigging.
This situation led many to believe that Washington could intervene to “restore democracy” in a country seen as backsliding towards authoritarianism. Assistant Secretary Lu was casted as the possible architect of this imagined intervention.
Why was US intervention anticipated?
That speculation on the “US intervention” wasn’t exactly unfounded.
From imposing sanctions on Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) — Bangladesh’s notorious paramilitary unit — on the ground of extra-judicial killings and enforced disappearance to declaring visa restriction for those who would impede voting process, the US had walked an extra mile.
Some analysts believed the US did that not only to prevent a repeat of the controversies surrounding the previous two elections, but also to protect its economic interest as the country is the largest buyer of Bangladesh’s multibillion garment industry products.
The Bangladesh government however went ahead with the election on January 7 this year amidst non-participation from the main Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) which sat out the poll as it believed no fair election could take place under Prime Minister Hasina’s watch.
While the outcome of the election was a foregone conclusion from the very onset due to the main Opposition boycott, reactions from the US were something that all political parties as well as common people were looking forward to.
The US released an official statement within a day of the Bangladeshi election results. While the statement criticised the election’s fairness and expressed concern about the arrests of Opposition leaders, it also emphasised the US “commitment to continued partnership with Bangladesh.”
This partnership, the US said, focuses on “promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific region, supporting human rights and civil society in Bangladesh, and strengthening people-to-people and economic ties.”
Politicians from Hasina’s Awami League (AL) party viewed the absence of intervention from the US or other countries as a tacit acceptance of the election outcome by the Western world. The Opposition ultimately came to the same conclusion: there would be no US-backed effort to oust the AL government.
What do the experts interpret?
During Lu’s visit to Bangladesh this May, some analysts had predicted a shift in focus away from the election issue in bilateral talks. This prediction proved accurate, as the official agenda centered on strengthening cooperation between the US and Bangladesh, particularly on climate change and economic ties.
Lu’s meetings with environment minister Saber Hossain Chowdhury and the prime minister’s advisor for private industry and investments Salman F. Rahman, along with some civil society leaders, reinforced this emphasis.
Notably, there were no meetings with BNP leaders, further indicating a shift away from direct involvement in domestic political matters.
During a press conference, following his meeting with Bangladesh foreign minister Dr. Hasan Mahmud, Lu acknowledged that the US administration’s efforts to promote a free and fair election in Bangladesh had caused some tensions. He, however, emphasised the need to move forward and rebuild trust between the two nations. Lu’s statement implicitly recognised that certain actions taken by the US government prior to the election had contributed to a decline in trust.
Dr. Delwar Hossain, a professor of International Relations at Dhaka University, interprets Lu’s recent visit as a sign that the US-Bangladesh relationship is expanding beyond a purely bilateral framework. He argues that the relationship is now increasingly viewed through the lens of the Indo-Pacific strategy, where the US has a significant interest in Bangladesh’s role.
Hossain emphasises the need for a “balanced, reciprocal relationship” between the two countries, involving “mature diplomacy, a realistic mindset, and continuous engagement” at all levels. He also believes the economic partnership that Bangladesh has with the US is also a key factor in the evolving dynamics of the two nation’s relationship.
Former Bangladeshi diplomat Mahfuzur Rahman meanwhile suggests that the US is closely observing China’s efforts to expand its global and regional influence, with particular interest in the outcomes of Bangladesh’s upcoming high-level visit to China.
Prime Minister Hasina is likely to visit Beijing this year to engage in a broader way with Asia’s superpower which already has become the South Asian nation’s largest trading partner.
Rahman points out that China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has significantly invested in Bangladesh’s infrastructure, while the United States, through initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Strategy, aims to provide alternative investment options with a focus on sustainability and transparency.
“Lu’s discussions with the Bangladesh government likely highlighted the benefits of diversifying economic partnerships to reduce dependency on a single country,” he said.
Abu Jakir is a journalist based in Dhaka.
