Manoj Joshi 
Next Monday, Donald Trump will once again take office, this time as the 47th president of the United States. There will be celebrations in the United States, especially among his followers to whom he has promised that he will Make America Great Again (MAGA). But around the world the development is being met with bemusement and consternation. There is, of course, the matter of tariffs that could affect the economies of friend and foe, or the deportation of illegal immigrants which will primarily affect the US itself but also its neighbours like Mexico.
But what has created alarm have been his “suggestions” relating to Canada, Greenland and Panama. In the old days, they would have been termed “imperialism” or “neo-imperialism,” but what are we to make of them at the end of the first quarter of the 21st century? Some dismiss his words as the ramblings of a real estate shark looking for new deals. More serious critics say that he is driven by security concerns which are now being shaped by the rise of China and great power instability. The bottom line seems to be that the US which is retreating in other parts of the world, is shoring up its backyard. It is, as some joke, that he has transformed the 19th century Monroe Doctrine into the 21st century Donroe Doctrine.
Canadians may be somewhat relieved that he has ruled out using military force to take their country and would rely only on economic force to make Canada the 51st state of the American Union. In December when he had called the Canadian prime minister “governor” of the “Great State of Canada,” it was seen as a joke of sorts.
But following Trudeau’s resignation, he doubled down on that and termed the border between US and Canada as being “artificially drawn” and threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian imports if Canada does not agree to the union.
The first Trump Administration had given Greenland $12 million for economic development and also opened a consulate in Greenland and the president had expressed a desire to buy the island. At the end of 2024, announcing the appointment of a new ambassador to Denmark, President-elect Trump said that “For the purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the world, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”
Earlier this month at a press conference, asked whether he would rule out using “military or economic coercion” to gain control of Greenland or Panama, Trump declared, “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two, but I can say this: We need them for economic security.”
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That was a day after his son Donald Trump Jr arrived for a private visit to Greenland and claimed that the local people were supportive of a US take over. The world’s largest island, Greenland, is a self-governing territory of Denmark which occupies a unique geopolitical position between the US and Europe. It already hosts the northernmost US military base at Pituffik and is rich in mineral and oil deposits.
The idea of the US buying Greenland is not new. In 1867 when President Andrew Johnson bought Alaska, he also considered purchasing Greenland. At the end of the second world war, the Truman administration offered Denmark $100 million for the island. But subsequently under a 1951 defense treaty the US got an air base which played an important role in planning the defence of the US against Soviet missiles.
The US had returned the Panama Canal zone to Panama during the Carter Presidency. But in December, Trump falsely accused Panama of allowing Chinese soldiers to control the shipping route and threatening American interests. He also, again falsely, accused Panama of charging US vessels “ridiculous” fees. He said unless there was a stop to these issues, he would seek to reassert US control over the Canal zone, if necessary by using military force.
The US built the canal between 1904-1914 and controlled an 8 km zone on either bank till it was returned only in 1999 through a 1978 agreement initiated by the late US President Jimmy Carter. In the colonial era, the US had actually helped in the creation of Panama which was part of Colombia till a US-backed rebellion helped in its secession.
Panama has, of course, strongly countered current US threats. Besides correcting Trump on the issue of the alleged over-charging of US vessels and Chinese control, Panama said it would assert its sovereign authority over “every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area.”
If the US is ready to violate international law like Putin in Ukraine, and invade Greenland or Panama it will face little resistance. Greenland has a population of just 56,000 and under its constitutional arrangements, Panama has no army. But you can be sure that such a blatant move will be resisted by the people and lead to prolonged instability. Not surprisingly, at the same press conference cited above, Trump said he understood Putin’s fear that the nation he invaded would join NATO, “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I could understand their feeling about that,” he said.
With regard to Greenland there is some ambiguity given that the territory is seeking independence and may be open to some form of association like the Marshall Islands, Palau or Micronesia. But a straightforward military move could backfire, position Denmark and EU against the US, besides getting the Greenland people’s back up.
America going rogue is not a prospect that the world can easily contemplate or deal with. The world’s richest and militarily powerful nation’s disregard for the patriotism of others could rile friends and foes and have the paradoxical impact of undermining US security, rather than enhancing it.
Manoj Joshi is a distinguished fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.