The 2024 UK General Election has ushered in a profound transformation in the political landscape, ending almost 14 years of Conservative dominance and highlighting the intricacies of the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system.
Labour’s resounding victory coupled with the emergence of multiple influential parties has multiple critical takeaways, including at its heart a deepening of democracy in the UK with the country buckling the wider Western move towards right-wing populism; and an overarching mandate for political stability and fundamental transformation. It is abundantly clear that Britain wants Keir Starmer to transform the country in much the same way as he has transformed the Labour Party.
Also read: Rishi Sunak Swept From Power in a Political Tidal Wave in the UK
Labour’s landslide
Starmer’s Labour Party has achieved a landslide victory, securing a majority government for the first time in 19 years. His triumph is notable for its strategic efficiency rather than a sweeping increase in vote share. Labour’s ability to win key seats across England, Scotland, and Wales, despite a marginal increase in vote share from the 2019 election, underscores the importance of voter distribution under the FPTP system. This victory marks only the fourth time a Labour leader has secured a majority, positioning Starmer as one of the most powerful prime ministers since Tony Blair.
However, Labour’s success also exposes potential vulnerabilities. The party’s ‘Broad Tent’ is made up of a thinly spread support base, with less than 35% of the vote, exposing a more fragmented political landscape. While being the antidote to the Tories was the glue that kept this Broad Tent together, this coalition will require deft political management to maintain unity as the focus shifts to governance. We’ve already seen one successful example of Sir Keir’s management through the Gaza issue – as his strategists would have calculated, this would not prevent a landslide majority, but the issue reared its head in a subliminal manner across many parts of the country.
Rise of Reform UK
The growing influence of Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, requires close analysis as this party has taken votes away from both the Conservatives and Labour. The party’s entry into parliament with four seats at the time of writing; and crucially, its second-place finish in 98 seats, primarily in northern England, reflect significant support for its inward-looking and stricter migration policies and may have something to do with being seen to be the only party presenting a radical solution for the NHS.
Nigel Farage during campaign. Photo: Facebook/Nigel Farage
This development indicates that while many voters are drawn to Labour’s redistributive agenda, there is also substantial backing for Reform UK’s stance on immigration and nativist sovereignty. In many seats Reform has come in second place to Labour, so as the Conservatives rebuild themselves they will face existential questions challenging the traditional right-left spectrum of politics in the country. Farage makes things far harder for Labour on immigration in particular and together with national identity issues will shape future political debates, challenging Labour’s dominance, especially in regions where Reform UK’s support is strong.
Conservative catastrophe
The Conservative Party’s devastating defeat, with its vote share plummeting to 24%, represents the worst electoral performance in its history. Rishi Sunak’s leadership has been called into question, and the party faces a profound identity crisis. The dramatic loss of seats, including key constituencies in the south of England with many sitting ministers losing their seats, is the party’s worst nightmare but resoundingly reflects the public’s clear preference of wanting its politicians to govern properly as opposed to the chaos unleashed by successive Conservative governments which has not only led to significant economic challenges – Starmer inherits the worst GDP-to-debt ratio since the second world war; but also arguably has damaged Britain’s global brand equity.
This collapse is partly attributed to the dilution of the Conservatives’ ideological offerings, which failed to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate – with one Conservative voter summarising their predicament as “…I have voted Conservative all my life, but I no longer know who they are and what they stand for…” The lower vote share for both Labour and the Conservatives can be interpreted as a move towards ideological extremes, with voters seeking clearer, more defined policy positions. This shift has opened the door for parties like Reform UK on the right and the Liberal Democrats as a moderate alternative.
Liberal Democrats’ leap
The Liberal Democrats have emerged as a significant force, achieving their best result since 1923. Their success in reclaiming traditional strongholds in the South West and making gains in the South East, including traditionally Conservative areas, highlights the appeal of a moderate counterpart to the Fabian Social Democratic ethos. Despite a modest increase in vote share to about 12%, the Liberal Democrats’ strategic targeting of key constituencies has positioned them as a crucial player in the new political landscape.
The resurgence of the Liberal Democrats indicates enduring support for centrist policies, a desire for a balanced approach to governance and a renewed focus on the NHS and Social Care. This historic result for Lib Dems restores their official third position in Westminster and showcases that whilst there is momentum towards more extreme positions, there remains a substantial constituency for moderate, pragmatic politics and the national religion of Britain.
An evolving political landscape
The 2024 election results reflect a deeply fragmented and evolving political landscape – by UK standards. What is clear is that the people of Britain voted heavily against the Conservatives, rejecting ‘scandals’ and instability of governance; which was also reflected in the reduction of SNP to less than 10 seats. The SNP has also been facing multiple scandals including those relating to alleged financial mismanagement.
The SNP’s significant setbacks in Scotland, Labour’s resurgence, the rise of Reform UK and the stability of the Greens all point to a more aware and assertive electorate – people knew exactly what they wanted on issues that mattered most for them and voted decisively in that context. The second-lowest voter turnout in history, at only 60%, further underscores the challenges facing traditional parties in engaging and mobilising voters.
Implications for India
Though the Conservatives and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been sister parties, a changed Labour party’s stance towards India is likely to be pragmatic and ambitious; grounded in emerging global geopolitics with watchers keeping a close eye on Labour’s foreign policy priorities and their alignment with India’s interests in regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts. The much spoken of Free Trade Agreement which was promised under the outgoing government is likely to get renewed focus on both sides with elections out of the way in both nations.
As office bearers of the oldest and largest pan-UK Indian students body, the National Indian Students and Alumni Union UK (NISAU UK), we look forward to positive changes in the context of international students. The Graduate Route visa is crucial for supporting the UK’s ambitions to become a global leader in research and innovation and addressing skills shortages in key sectors.
At our annual conference earlier this year, Labour indicated support for the Graduate Route, recognising the significant economic contributions these students make to the UK. Bridget Phillipson, Labour’s Shadow Education Secretary, emphasised the positive impact of international students on local economies and the financial stability they provide to British universities through higher tuition fees.
We look forward to the government to safeguard this vital pathway, as it benefits not only the students but also the broader UK economy and society. We must also acknowledge the contributions of the outgoing prime minister, Rishi Sunak. As the first person of colour to hold the office of Prime Minister in the United Kingdom, not only did he break a very significant glass ceiling, but he can be credited with stabilising the country’s political atmosphere after the chaos prevalent at the time.
Labour’s coalition, while magnanimously victorious, must navigate a complex array of interests and demands. Starmer’s ability to maintain unity and deliver on campaign promises will be critical in sustaining support and preventing the erosion of the party’s newly acquired dominance. The dynamic nature of contemporary British politics, with rapidly shifting allegiances and the rise of new political forces, means that no party can take its position for granted.
Sanam Arora (@arora_sanam) is the chairperson of the NISAU UK & Commissioner of the UK’s International Higher Education Commission. Vignesh Karthik KR (@krvtweets) is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow of Indian and Indonesian Politics at the Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies, Leiden; and the Head of Research and Thought Leadership at NISAU UK.