For some time now both Koreas have been engaged in psychological and propaganda warfare. By the end of May 2024, North Korea had dropped around 260 balloons carrying rubbish in South Korea. After this attack, within less than 15 days North Korea has again sent a new wave of trash-laden balloons towards South Korea.
This new wave consisted of around 300 balloons and it has been reported that around 80 balloons had fallen on the South Korean territory. The South Korean authorities had not found anything hazardous in the materials dumped by North Korea.
The North Korean balloon attack needs to be viewed at the backdrop of the propaganda balloons sent from the South Korean side. For some time now, few activists from South Korea were known to be doing mischief by sending balloons with hundreds of thousands of anti-North Korea leaflets condemning leader Kim Jong Un and 5,000 USB sticks containing K-pop and K-dramas.
A South Korean group called “Fighters for Free North Korea” has been active in sending such balloons across. Officially, it appears that this activity is not state sponsored. Initially, North Korea had undertaken only one attack in response to the South Korea mischief.
Balloons with USB drives containing K-pop
However, after the fresh attack from the “Fighters for Free North Korea” involving 10 balloons with USB thumb drives containing K-pop music and 200,000 leaflets against leader Kim Jong Un, North Korea has again responded with a new salvo of balloons carrying dirt.
Another South Korean activist group called Kuensaem has claimed that they have dropped 500 plastic bottles with rice, cash and a USB drive into the sea near the border with North Korea. The USB drive contains a South Korean TV series “Crash Landing on You” which depicts a romance between a wealthy South Korean heiress and a North Korean army officer.
Seoul’s parliament had passed a law in December 2020 that criminalises the launch of anti-Pyongyang leaflets. It appears that in this particular case the provocation has actually come from the South Korean side and that too from a non-state actor. Hence, it is interesting to note that South Korea has taken a very hawkish position against the attack of balloons filled with filth.
South Korea called this act a “low-class” act, however their response has been very dramatic. South Korea’s Cabinet Council and President Yoon Suk Yeol have suspended the 2018 inter-Korean agreement on lowering front-line military tensions.
Since this agreement has been shown the basket, now South Korea could resume propaganda broadcasts. They can also resume military exercises along the border. South Korea has also threatened that they would restart the shrill propaganda and pop music broadcasts by a grid of loudspeakers positioned along the demilitarised zone (DMZ).
In the past North Korea had claimed to destroy the loudspeakers with artillery unless this high-acoustics propaganda was not stopped. Actually, poo wars have a long history. In wars, from poo to poison, various substances have been tried since the fifth century BC. The Scythians, who lived in a territory stretching across central Asia, used arrows dipped in poison made from a concoction of snake venom, human blood and dung or human faeces.
‘Poop’ warfare
During 1893, French occupiers in Thailand are known to have established ‘chicken poop prison’ to ill-treat Thai fighters (poo was dropped on the prisoners). During the Vietnam War, the Vietcong (The Vietnamese Communists) managed to hold out against the Americans until they left Vietnam in the 1970s. The Vietcong used a number of tactics to help them do this and Viet Cong’s punji sticks (a type of booby trap) was one of them.
Punji sticks were made from sharpened wood or bamboo, and sometimes covered in animal venom, plant poison or human waste. Also, the usage of balloons in warfighting has a long history. The Union Army Balloon Corps was a branch of the Union Army during the American Civil War (1861-1865). The unit was used for providing intelligence inputs.
Both the Koreas are known to have used balloons in their propaganda campaigns since the Korean War in the 1950s. However, in the present context South Korea needs to be much more careful.
North Korea is known to have a chemical and biological weapons program. The possibility cannot be ruled out that in future some balloons could have some such substances. During 2001, sketches and calculations to make a helium-powered balloon bomb filled with anthrax were found from the Kabul office of an NGO.
Also, it is important to remember that some years back a biological agent was used to assassinate North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un’s estranged half-brother, Kim Jong-nam. Historically, feces have been used as a primitive form of biological warfare. There have been instances of contaminated waste being used to spread diseases among enemy populations or armies.
Modern-day biotechnology could help the development of advanced methods for weaponizing human waste. Amongst the barrage of balloons even one contaminated balloon could help the disease spread.
Today, the tensions between North and South Korea are escalating again. The question is about how these states view today’s balloon rivalry? This balloon controversy is not been viewed by South Korea as a simple disruptive act and that is why they have suspended the inter-Korean agreement on lowering front-line military tensions. South Korea said that it would “revive all military activities” restricted under the 2018 agreement, until “inter-Korean mutual trust is restored.”
So, it appears that things have gone beyond tit-for-tat balloon strikes! Is it all about the psychological warfare and propaganda broadcasts or is there something more to it?
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal
Over the years, North Korea has learned to survive with economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation. However, the going has been tough and they are keen to get out of this condition. Nuclear weapons in the hands of North Korea have appreciably altered the dynamics of deterrence in the region.
They are continuously showcasing their missile capabilities by testing various types of missiles including hypersonic missiles. For a long time, the US has been providing extended deterrence guarantees to South Korea and Japan. The US anti-ballistic missile defence system called Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) stands deployed in South Korea.
In addition, North Korea’s friendly neighbours, namely Russia and China, are nuclear weapon states. Currently, the presence of nuclear weapons and nuclear guarantees could be said to have helped only to ensure some form of fragile peace in the region. So, the issue is that ‘can nuclear-armed North Korea be reliably deterred at all?’ Essentially, it appears that there is some form of deterrence stalemate in the region.
The logic says that North Korea understands that nuclear weapons are not usable weapons. Today, beyond nuclear weapons they are making progress in other strategic fields like missiles, cyber and space. However, nothing is helping to get the US, South Korea and Japan on the table for conflict resolution.
Against this backdrop, it is important to check whether it was a kneejerk from the side of North Korea to use balloons filled with human waste or there is something more to it. Are they testing the waters for the use of balloon technology in future for some other purposes too?
On May 27, 2024 North Korea’s attempt to launch a spy satellite failed when the rocket exploded mid-air during the first stage. It is expected that North Korea would continue with their attempts to put their satellites into space. However, they also could be looking at other options, which would help them to collect intelligence.
There is no knowledge about North Korea’s expertise in the area of high-altitude balloons. However, their immediate tit for tat response to South Korea clearly indicates that they have some operational infrastructure for undertaking balloon launching.
Today, they have used human waste for impact purposes, tomorrow it could be replaced by some sensors or some bio or chemical agents. There have been some recent incidents related to Chinese spy balloons possibly gathering intelligence from sensitive US military sites. In fact, the US had used fighter aircrafts to destroy such balloons. For North Korea, it may not be difficult to get this technology from China or even readymade balloons for use.
Undeniably, caution and diplomacy are crucial when dealing with security challenges in the Korean Peninsula. Today, any escalation owing to the ongoing balloon war could increase tensions in the region. It is important not to dismiss any potential risks regarding the potential threat posed by balloon-based activities. States like South Korea (and Japan) need to remain alert and cautious.
Ajey Lele researches space issues and is the author of the book Institutions That Shaped Modern India: ISRO. He is Deputy Director General at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
