History, as the saying goes, doesn’t repeat itself, but it does often rhyme. Four years after refusing to concede to Joe Biden with unproven claims of electoral fraud that culminated in the January 6 assault on the Capitol, former president Donald Trump is once again casting doubt on the US presidential election.
Now in a close race against Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump and his allies have prepared for years to challenge the outcome if he loses, with strategies aimed at questioning election integrity on multiple fronts.
From the outset of his campaign, Trump has focused heavily on casting doubt on the election process. During the June presidential debate, he was asked three times if he would accept the results of the 2024 election. His answer: he would only do so if the election was “fair and legal and good”.
At his campaign rallies, Trump has urged supporters to anticipate a victory while implying that any loss would be due to corruption.
“I’d love to win the popular vote with them cheating. Let them cheat, because that’s what they do; they do it very well, they’re very professional. But I think we have a really good chance to win the popular vote,” he told supporters at a rally in Salem, Virginia, on Saturday.
On social media, he has amplified claims of fraud, especially in battleground states like Pennsylvania, where he recently posted allegations about “fake ballots” and other claims of supposed irregularities.
“We caught them CHEATING BIG in Pennsylvania. Must announce and PROSECUTE, NOW!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding, “Who would have ever thought our country could be so CORRUPT?”
This rhetoric sparked rapid responses from officials. Democratic Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro responded on X, saying, “In 2020, Donald Trump attacked our elections over and over. He’s now trying to use the same playbook to stoke chaos, but hear me on this: we will again have a free and fair, safe and secure election – and the will of the people will be respected.”
Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Al Schmidt, a Republican, echoed this, telling CNN that any allegations of fraud were “completely and totally unfounded”. “Voters should have confidence we will have a fair election in 2024, just like we had in 2020,” Schmidt said.
Lawsuits galore
After Trump’s loss in 2020, his team initiated 60 court cases across multiple states to challenge the results, alleging widespread fraud, though none succeeded. This experience led Trump’s team to refine their approach for 2024. According to Olivier Richomme, an electoral law expert and professor of American history at Lyon 2 University, the strategy this time is broader and more calculated.
“Trump has an army of lawyers, co-ordinated by his political adviser Stephen Miller,” Richomme explained. “They’ve already initiated lawsuits well ahead of the election and intend to continue afterward.”
The Republican National Committee (RNC) filed more than 120 lawsuits in 26 states from 2020 through August this year, contesting various election rules. An RNC spokesperson claimed the party’s primary goal was to address issues in voting systems to prevent illegal ballots before Election Day.
“Our Election Integrity operation is focused on securing transparency and fairness for every legal vote,” RNC spokesperson Claire Zunk told Reuters last month. “This ensures voters feel confident that their ballots are counted properly, which ultimately inspires voter turnout.”
Launched in April, the Election Integrity Network is the largest initiative of its kind in US history, enlisting thousands of lawyers and volunteers to address perceived election interference. A number of high-profile conservative donors contributed over $140 million to some 50 groups working to support this effort, according to the Wall Street Journal, funding a comprehensive network for election monitoring, and extensive litigation.
But investigations have found that voter fraud is actually quite rare. A comprehensive audit of elections in the US state of Georgia released last month found that only 20 noncitizens had tried to registered to vote out of 8.2 million registered voters; an additional 156 were flagged for further investigation. Claims that voting machines can be rigged to “flip” votes from one candidate to another have also circulated for years. But “every single” such instance is attributable to human error and not a hacked machine, according to David Becker, founder of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, in an interview with CBS News.
Breeding distrust for future elections
Unlike four years ago, Trump no longer holds presidential powers, which limits his influence over US institutions. Without a vice president on his side or a direct line to the attorney general, Trump’s means of challenging the election are reduced.
However, Trump’s years of sowing doubt in the electoral process have done irreparable damage to public confidence. “The real problem is that he has planted the idea in the minds of the American people that there is a problem with electoral fraud,” Richomme said. “We’re seeing a growing part of the electorate suspicious of elections.”
Trump’s allies within the GOP are mirroring his rhetoric, with nearly half of Republican candidates for Congress or state office publicly questioning the upcoming election’s integrity. For instance, Illinois House Representative Brian Babin recently posted on X, claiming that “Democrat counties refuse to clean up voter rolls, are counting aliens in censuses, and are using Harris’ open borders to replace US voters to hold a perpetual majority”.
Richomme warns that this rising tide of mistrust could alter American politics well beyond this election.
“There are more and more cases of Republican elected officials who make a habit of questioning election results. They will run for office but refuse to accept election results when they don’t go their way.”
‘A weakening of American democracy’
Democrats are also gearing up for a contested election, including any premature declarations of victory from Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris announced plans for a rapid-response strategy to counter any such claims.
“We are sadly ready if he does and, if we know that he is actually manipulating the press and attempting to manipulate the consensus of the American people … we are prepared to respond,” Harris said during an interview with ABC in late October.
Democrats have also prepared a team of thousands of lawyers to respond to any legal challenges lodged by the Trump campaign.
However, in the event of an actual Trump win, Democrats have signaled they would refrain from questioning the results. As Richomme points out, “It’s not in the Democrats’ tradition, and they campaigned against such actions when Trump was doing it. They’ve made it clear they believe the electoral system functions effectively.”
Regardless of the outcome, this election will likely leave a significant impact on American democratic institutions. Richomme observes that the damage from Trump’s rhetoric may linger long after the votes are counted.
“We are witnessing a weakening of American democracy. This erosion of confidence in the electoral system poses serious threats,” he warned.
With Americans increasingly sceptical of the integrity of US elections, the November vote could prove a defining moment for the future of US political norms.
This article first appeared on France24.
