Brazil is a big country, with a population of 214 million. It is the second most populated country in the Americas and third in land area. During President Lula da Silva’s first two tenures from 2002 to 2010, millions emerged from poverty through welfare and education schemes.
Now 77, a survivor of jail (2018-20) and cancer, Lula grew up in a poor rural household. He was the seventh child out of eight children. A former metal worker, he rose through union politics.
He was married thrice; his present wife, who is his Workers Party (PT) colleague, is 21 years younger.
Lula was elected president in his fourth attempt, becoming the first person from outside the political and economic élite who did not have a degree.
He is immensely popular with the poor and the least educated section of the society because of cash-transfer policies, backed by education and healthcare. By 2010, a quarter of the population was benefiting from such policies.
His policies deepened human rights and decreased hunger, poverty, inequality, and child labour. Upward social mobility was achieved through access to education, including the use of quotas, scholarships, incentives, and finance. By 2017, nearly 10% of the ‘coloured’ people, who are 56% of the population, graduated, while 22% of white individuals also graduated.
Brazil became a recognised player across the world, and was a leader in controlling climate change. However, the need for coalition governments in Brazil has been a consistent factor. Since he came to power, allegations of corruption were made against Lula. It was alleged that he bought votes. His narrow win as president last year showed that the taint of corruption still persists.
Lula was followed by his chosen successor, Dilma Rousseff, who held the position from 2011 to 2016. However, the economic situation changed for the worse, as demand for Brazilian exports fell, and she mismanaged the administration. Poverty levels surged, public services deteriorated, her approval rating plummeted to less than 30%, and corruption scandals contributed to her downfall.
Lula’s policies were further discarded by Michel Temer, who succeeded Rousseff, but the greatest change came with President Jair Bolsonaro, who held the position from 2018 to 2022. He is known for his extreme populist nationalism, which ended on January 8, 2023, when, in protest against Lula’s victory, his supporters, along with the army and security agencies, invaded the main governmental institutions.
Representative image. Photo: Unsplash
The ensuing domestic and international denunciation of the riots helped Lula, however, the obstacles he faces in his third term are formidable.
Bolsonaro’s term
Bolsonaro was a seven-term Congressman who switched parties seven times. He “had no friends in Latin America,” and reversed Lula’s policies, prioritising alliance with Christian nations and close ties with the US. He was undone by an administration considered “obscurantist, exclusivist and retrograde,” the popularity of Lula, and the inept handling of the COVID-19 pandemic since he was a vaccine denier.
Health and education were underfunded, concerns about climate change and environment grew, and for the first time, the incumbent failed to get re-elected.
Bolsonaro traded on anti-PT, anti-corruption, and anti-criminal sentiment; he thought higher education had been “captured by the ideology of the Left”, and cut education funding.
Income growth mostly went to the better-off. In 2021, there were 33 million people living in poverty, 18 million people were extremely poor, and food insecurity affected 15% of the population.
“Mechanisms that explained the mitigation of hunger were dismantled,” 8,000 Cuban doctors were forced to withdraw from their profession. Human rights concerns were dismissed.
Bolsonaro regarded indigenous rights as “obstacles” to agri-business, illegal timber and mining, and was prepared to use violence to achieve his objectives.
He called NGOs “anti-family”, “anti-god”, “anti-nation” and “anti-life” (abortion). He recognised the power of the military and police families who supported the use of violence to combat crime, and favoured gun ownership, brutal policing and police autonomy. He brought in former military officers into government positions because of “a certain nostalgia for the military dictatorships”, and deployed social media for “non-stop confrontation.”
His electoral defeat evoked international relief due to his reputation as the ‘Trump of the Tropics’.
But Lula faces a difficult transition.
The need to regain political and personal credibility for Lula
Having secured only a slim majority of 51-49%, Bolsonaro loyalists control half of the 26 states, the federal capital, and the three most populated and developed states. The legislature and courts are empowered and combative. There are fissures along race, income, gender, and religious lines. Pro and anti-Lula voters “disagreed on basically everything.”
In a deeply polarised Brazil, Lula will have to regain political and personal credibility, deal with rightist and centre-right governors, the Senate, the Congress, and the military with suspect loyalty, a stagnant economy, fiscal deficit, and about one-third, or 60-70 million people, in poverty.
Yet “all eyes are on Brazil and hopes are high.”
Lula will be a one-term president and this is his “last chance, and he has no room for error.” While “never intimidated in contact with powerful people,” and a “quintessential political negotiator,” his relations with the establishment were never easy, though he was more pragmatic and popular than the PT.
Lula will enjoy strong support from feminists and indigenous people when he focusses on sustainable growth, eradication of poverty, and extension of social programmes for the extreme poor and women. He must re-establish state control and restore public security as a social right.
Lula has chosen a conservative vice-president, but “relies on fewer people and takes almost all his important decisions alone.” His cabinet is oversized with the Left under-represented, and three centrist parties are key to his success, which could lead to defections.
The political opinions of the police and the army will be important. With 86 different police forces, and numerous veto holders, making reforms in reducing racial inequality in the police, authoritarian community policing and excessive violence will be difficult.
Though Brazil is technologically advanced and is doing well in the financial services sector, natural resources still remain key to its economy.
Lula encounters environmental issues related to dams, highways, gas, oil, biofuel, deforestation, and land tenure security.
Brazil after Bolsonaro: The Comeback of Lula da Silva, edited by Richard Bourne (Routledge, August 2023)
Brazil has 305 indigenous peoples and 100 uncontacted tribes comprising 0.8% of the population who suffer marginalisation and racism. Lula’s first tenure showed some improvement in this area, but his overall record was average. He demarcated 79 territories, more than what Rousseff did with demarcating 21 territories; Bolsonaro did none. Despite that, Lula will need political will to demarcate another 200 territories, expel illegal invaders, repeal anti-indigenous laws, and oppose vested interests.
Lula’s foreign policy was autonomy through international solidarity and energising South American integration. In his first terms, he sought global actor status, permanent membership of the UN Security Council, moved away from Europe and strengthened ties with Africa. He now has to remove rightist ideology from foreign affairs, and balance ties with China and Russia so as not to alienate the US, considering a possible Trump comeback in 2024.
Compilations are not normally considered worth reviewing due to diversity of style and content. However, this volume of Brazil After Bolsonaro: The Comeback of Lula Da Silva, edited by Richard Bourne, is an exception.
It is no hagiography, with critical comments and telling points on every page. Considering Lula’s tenure is only a few months old, this is a rushed job but with superb editing there are hardly any typos, there is a good index and useful graphs, though a list of acronyms is sorely needed.
The language throughout is excellent and the flow seamless, considering that some contributions presumably needed translation from Portuguese. The last chapter, by a former president of Costa Rica, is a brilliant and compelling read. This is an essential book to understand today’s Brazil and Lula, whose success is paramount for the aspirational Global South.
Krishnan Srinivasan is a former foreign secretary.
