In 1998, the global blockbuster Armageddon was released, in which a team led by Bruce Willis is sent into space to prevent an asteroid from colliding with Earth to prevent the end of life on the planet.
The same parallel can be applied in the case of the US and Israel in the wake of what has been happening recently in Israel under its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In recent weeks, there has been an expectation that US President, Joe Biden, would put on his aviator goggles and stop the Netanyahu government’s clash with the judicial system, which could bring about an end to democratic life in Israel.
The Israeli political commentariat goes around with a flashlight in hand to find cracks in the relationship between Israel and the US, measure its expansion, and report on it. Poll after poll indicating a decrease in public support in the US towards the state of Israel, public criticism of President Biden’s administration’s handling of the crisis in Israel, and the perceived delay in inviting Netanyahu to the White House have caused anguish among the supporters of Israel. They perceived such a turn of events as what is perceived as the destruction of “historical relations”. On the other side, the emerging situation is also attracting joyous cheers from other quarters.
Representative image. Jews and Israelis in the UK protest against Israel President Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul. Photo: Alisdare Hickson/Flickr CC BY SA 2.0
Unfortunately, the reality is much more complicated than American kitsch movies. The US maintains complex and difficult relations with many countries, as long as they continue to serve its own interests. Public opinion polls regarding foreign relations are also meaningless, as long as there is no proven connection between them and voting patterns in US elections.
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Over the years, all US administrations have maintained close ties with dictatorial regimes that have committed terrible crimes and caused outrage among parts of the American public, but relations with them were not a significant consideration in voting in the US elections. Instead, voters were rather affected by internal issues. This is especially true now when the Republican party’s presidential candidate is expected to be former president Donald Trump. President Biden is not afraid that if he does not stop the regime change in Israel, young Americans who supported him and the Democratic Party in the 2020 elections and the 2022 midterm elections will suddenly switch to vote for Trump.
According to a report by the US Congressional Research Centre published on March 1, Israel has cumulatively received the largest foreign aid from the US since World War II, amounting to $158 billion. The report explains that the aid is based on shared strategic goals in the Middle East and a mutually declared commitment to democratic values.
In the aspect of joint “strategic goals”, despite certain squeaks, as a general rule, Israel provided the “goods” not only in the Middle East but around the world. For example, all US presidents could trust that if the Houses of Representatives “muscle” against the foreign policy they designed, or impose an arms embargo on a certain country, Israel would fill the vacuum and send weapons and military trainers on its behalf. This is what happened in the “Iran-Contras” case and also regarding dozens of other countries.
In the aspect of “democratic values”, as long as within the recognised borders of Israel there were democratic institutions and values that seemed reasonable to the US, it had no problem – from 1948 onwards, supporting Israel’s refusal to solve the Palestinian refugee problem, and from 1967 onwards also to support Israel’s apartheid regime in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
While strategic cooperation is important for promoting US foreign policy, the democratic aspect is important to US presidents mainly internally – to ensure a positive opinion of the public and elites towards Israel, which will make it easier for both countries to realise their strategic goals, whatever they may be.
Time will tell what the red lines of President Biden’s administration are, that if the Netanyahu government crosses them, it will be decided in the White House that there are no longer enough shared strategic goals and democratic values between the two countries, and what has been seen for decades as science fiction will happen – that the US will reduce aid to Israel or take in other actual sanctions against it.
US President Joe Biden. Photo: The White House/Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain
In the meantime, it seems that just as Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to accustom the people of Israel to a new reality of a full dictatorship inside of Israel (not only in the occupied Palestinian territories), he also wants to get the US used to it. Netanyahu’s approach is not fundamentally unfounded: from the end of World War II until the 1990s, the US explained its support for the dictatorships that were on its side as a necessary evil for the fight against Communism and the spread of the totalitarian model of the Soviet Union. Even after the end of the Cold War, US support for the promotion of world democracy was mostly “lip service”. In countries like Afghanistan and Iraq, it was catastrophic.
Between 2009 and 2022, the number of liberal democracies in the world dropped from 44 countries to 32, and in 2022 there were only 22 fully liberal democracies. The US maintains diplomatic, economic, and security relations with the vast majority of non-democratic countries. Although President Biden has set as a central goal of his term the strengthening of democracy around the world, dictators who choose the “right side” in the wars of the US against Russia, China, terrorism, geopolitical instability or the prices of energy products, get “discounts” from it. Dictators who serve the interests of the US with outstanding success receive “VIP discounts” from it, which include military and economic assistance.
In addition to critical references from time to time by the US administrations, the House of Representatives and Senate every year in March publish the US State Department’s report on the state of human rights worldwide, country by country. The State Department’s reports and the other critical references from the US, of course, serve the campaigns of the opposition and local and international human rights organisations against undemocratic regimes.
Some dictators ignore them. Some are offended and bother to publish comments denying the claims. The real fear of the dictators is a loss of control, which will lead to real damage to their relations with the US. Among other things, through the formation of a widespread negative position towards them in the House of Representatives and Senate, or the imposition of an arms embargo or personal sanctions against them and their associates.
In recent weeks, the Netanyahu government has already adopted the jargon of the dictators’ response to US criticism of the state of human rights and democracy in their countries. Among other things, Culture Minister Miki Zohar tweeted: “It’s sad that Biden also fell victim to fake news against our justified reform.” Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotritz said “that they should not interfere in our internal affairs”; and Prime Minister Netanyahu himself tweeted: “Israel is an independent country that makes its decisions according to the will of its citizens and not based on external pressures, including from our best friends.”
When former US President Trump waited in August 2019 for the arrival of the Egyptian dictator, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, to meet with him, he asked: “Where is my favourite dictator?” If the Netanyahu government continues to follow the interests of the US in the Middle East and other parts of the world, Netanyahu may become President Biden’s favourite, or at least tolerable, dictator.
This article first appeared in Hebrew on Local Call online magazine.
Eitay Mack is a human rights lawyer and activist based in Jerusalem.
